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absherwin

765 karma · joined October 4, 2012

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absherwin··on SpaceX Sells 10% Stake to Google, Fidelity for $1B
No one knows what the demand curve for space looks like. Those who feel SpaceX is crazily undervalued implicitly assume two things: A steep demand curve* and that SpaceX will continue to drive down prices by large amounts.

*This is equivalent to: There are tons of people who think space is cool or useful and do nothing because it's too expensive and that won't be true with SpaceX's costs in 10 years.

absherwin··on Basic Income is Practical Today, Necessary Soon
This math works because the average person over 65 receives approximately $24,000 in federal benefits which would be cut in half. There are other groups who lose but this one is by far the biggest.
absherwin··on O’Reilly purchases Pearson’s stake in Safari
They're lowering prices by 50% for the next day. Two interpretations:

-They want to take advantage of the publicity to sign up as many people as possible, hoping a decent percentage stay at the higher rate.

-They hypothesized the price was too high and are testing the effect of lowering it.

I suspect it's a latter with the former as a fallback benefit. Their most recent product change coincided with a 20% price decrease. O'Reilly wants to focus on making the best product possible, even if the higher expenses and lower prices mean reduced profitability in the near-term because he sees how huge this can be in the long-term if done right.

Pearson likely doubted the wisdom of short-term sacrifice which is how each side leaves feeling happy.

absherwin··on Uber vs. Car Ownership
For those people who see this argument as inapplicable, you're right for many people today. Sam worries about UberX rates going up. The exact opposite will happen. They have steadily pushed prices down since inception. They've also started realigning the price more towards time and away from mileage and have much farther to go.

UberX will eventually charge prices more like $0.60 per minute plus $0.20 per mile.

A rough estimate based on the distribution of miles driven is that 30% of Americans should give up their cars under these numbers. Of course, many won't because owning a car isn't purely a financial decision and humans change slowly.

Discussions and imagination move much faster than reality but the world will catch up.

Technical note: The price per hour should be (time-related depreciation)/miles + hourly wage divided by the utilization rate. Mileage should be the sum of fuel costs per mile, maintenance cost per mile, and mileage based depreciation.

Running these numbers for a driver expecting $20 per hour (Average for a Taxi driver is ~$12) with 2/3 utilization and driving a Prius yields a pricing structure of ~$0.60 per minute and ~$0.20 per mile.

absherwin··on The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working
This article is based on the flawed assumption that where the rocket explodes is irrelevant. His criteria for success is frontal impact which the author claims is the only way to destroy this midair. Regardless of this, if the impact alters the trajectory to bring down the rocket in a less populated area, fewer people die.

The author has been a vocal critic of missile defense systems for decades. While that doesn't negate his arguments, it suggests a potential motivation for his artificial definition of success.

Edit: As the comment below points out, the rocket's trajectory could be changed so as to increase casualties. While that's true, it won't do so on average for several reasons. A rocket is only targeted if the system believes it has a high probability of striking a populated area. Since the expected losses are high, average will be better. In fact, average should be much better because the distribution of population density is so skewed. A small percentage of land is in dense regions. In this particular case, there's the added advantage that the most populous cities are relatively far away from Gaza so early impact is better.

absherwin··on FedEx Charged With Shipping Drugs For Illegal Online Pharmacies
Always is an odd characterization of something that occurs 10% of the time.

Edit to respond to comment: The context is a an executive talking about whether accounts that FedEx classifies as internet pharmacies should be counted towards sales goals used for bonuses. That means they could classify new accounts as belonging to this group or not. It's worth noting that their definition is likely not synonymous with the plain meaning of internet pharmacy. Rather it means that subset that they expect the DEA will put out of business. I'm sure Caremark isn't excluded from normal sales metrics and subjected to extraordinary credit requirements.

absherwin··on FedEx Charged With Shipping Drugs For Illegal Online Pharmacies
From an internal memo about more stringent credit policies for internet pharmacies: "Many of these companies operate outside of federal and state regulations over the sale of controlled drugs, which require diagnosis and prescription by a licensed physician. Drugs purchased from these sites may be diluted or counterfeit."

To believe that FedEx lacked knowledge of illegal activity, one must believe that they assumed some of these pharmacies were genuine and that while it was feasible to create special policies to ensure FedEx was paid, policies to verify the organizations legitimacy (which would also increase the chance of them being paid), were impractical. However, that will be difficult because one executive told another that: "...these types of accounts will always result in a loss at some point. They have a very short lifespan and will eventually be shut down by the DEA." (emphasis added)

They certainly can't argue, as many others in this thread have, that the companies weren't identifiable: They were doing it to enforce this policy. The credit department maintained a list of pharmacies that, at one time, had 600 entries on it.

absherwin··on Startup Growth Calculator
I doubt there's a formal collection but I'd be equally surprised if they don't have early stage projections from many of the companies. As silly as they can be, they're often part of pitches.

From my limited personal experience, every startup I've chatted about this with has some sort of forecast though the degree of seriousness with which is was constructed and is used varies.

absherwin··on Startup Growth Calculator
YC has now funded enough companies that if it has the data (likely in a bunch of spreadsheets) to do a more accurate version of this. Expenses aren't really flat, growth isn't purely exponential and today's estimates aren't reality. A simple model that fixes those three things, should improve accuracy though it would still be subject to enormous volatility which could also estimated based on the same history. This also ignores optionality and probability of a failed raise which would further shift the answer.
absherwin··on Judge Shoots Down ‘Bitcoin Isn’t Money’ Argument in Silk Road Trial

    -Bad: Do nothing
    -Better: Object to everything and you might win the lottery
    -Best: Object reasonably that they may be taken seriously
    -Beyond amazing: Admit everything in such a sympathetic way to minimize guilt*

    *Gerry Spence
absherwin··on More than half the Thiel Fellows plan on returning to school
Spoiler: The students interviewed are a month into their fellowship. Reporting on decisions that fellows from a couple years back actually made would be more enlightening.
absherwin··on New RFS: One Million Jobs
How many Uber drivers have you talked to? Every driver I've asked has been quite happy with the job. While they might avoid open criticism, often they've provided sufficient details about their other or previous job that it's clear that this is an improvement.
absherwin··on Anti-Tesla sentiment and the death of optimism
Reputation should solve this problem given that life is a repeated game as long as we also are able to be long-sighted. A more formal argument can be found here: http://economics.mit.edu/files/4754

That suggests the cultural problem is decline in longer-term thinking or more likely a decline in arbitrary codes of behavior without a concomitant increase in longer-term thinking that would recreate many of those same norms.

American business used to place a high value on trust: "A man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. I think that is the fundamental basis of business." -J. Pierpont Morgan

As another example, Warren Buffet seldom does diligence to determine an offer; he trusts those from who he buys to deal and report honestly.

absherwin··on After Google bought Nest, it removed company’s biggest competitors from results
This is misleading. The article cites a single company that inadvertently violated Google's rules by failing to mark paid links. This seems to be part of the ongoing saga of companies making errors, sometimes honest, and being penalized.

Is the company even a major player in the smart thermostat space? It's not even listed in this market analysis from last fall: http://cleantechnica.com/2013/11/14/honeywell-leads-smart-th....

It looks more like a competitor in the home automation systems space that sells smart thermostats mainly as part of a more comprehensive system.

Given the absence of action against any of their more major competitors, this seems like a coincidence.

absherwin··on How much do Y Combinator founders earn?
The key assumption with this line of thinking is that a model built on a population who don't base their decisions on 80000hours principles will perform well on those who do.

That seems unlikely to true if a passion for fixing a particular problem is both a significant factor in predicting a startup's success and unlikely to be present in one who makes decisions by modeling the value-maximizing way to live one's life.

absherwin··on Why I was forced to shut down Lavabit
Lavabit didn't actually have the information in a format that was readable. In order to get it, they needed to change the way their system operated to decrypt the information the next time a particular user logged in. If one can force a person to modify the source code running on his servers, why can't one force a person to modify a binary distributed to clients?

From reading the arguments in this case, it's not clear to me that the judges would have been impressed by that distinction. Their focus was on whether Lavabit had the technical capability to provide the information the government demanded. In both cases, the answer is yes. We won't know the actual answer until this has been litigated. If it has and I've missed it, I'd love to see the case in question.

absherwin··on Why I was forced to shut down Lavabit
"Other people... build systems that can provide meaningful security for their users."

Do all of the implementations, particularly on mobile, actually provide such security? If a court is willing to order TLS keys to be turned over in order to enable the government to access information, why couldn't they order the developer to release a backdoored version through the relevant App Store or other update mechanism? If the author refuses to comply, then they will demand the codesigning keys so they can backdoor it themselves.

To quote your critique of another's security proposal: "Then the only difference between hushmail and your model is exactly what the FBI will get a subpoena to have you type into your server to subvert your users. The models are equivalently insecure."

absherwin··on 2048, success and me
If they literally copied your website, this is a simple case of copyright infringement. Source code, descriptive text and graphics are each individually subject to copyright. You should be able to file a DMCA request to remove the offending app. Assuming their app that copied yours was successful, a lawsuit for damages might be worthwhile.

Note that the simple concept of a game is not subject to copyright. Also note that your failure to register does not relieve the offending party of liability though it might remain advantageous to do so.

In short, talk with a lawyer.

Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer and the foregoing should not be construed as legal advice.

absherwin··on Mozilla CEO: Gay-marriage firestorm could hurt Firefox
Making stupid statements and performing harmful actions are vastly different things. Focusing on the former: making stupid statements does have consequences: Others may question the judgement of the person making the statements. For whatever reason, Eich's views haven't raised those questions in those closest to him, perhaps, because they aren't discussed.

If someone stated that men and women have different numbers of teeth, why not encourage an experiment? It's not an absurd statement unless you've gathered evidence or trust the evidence you've read elsewhere.

The challenge in this case is that morality can't be determined objectively without reference to some other framework, which itself is likely subjective. So it doesn't tell us whether Eich can reason or incorporate evidence. He likely formulates his view from a different set of assumptions.

absherwin··on Mozilla CEO: Gay-marriage firestorm could hurt Firefox
Every idea you cite as stupid was once believed to be true. Respecting the right of people to make stupid statements makes it much easier for us all to realize someday which of own beliefs are stupid.
absherwin··on Tin cans filled with $10M in gold coins found buried in California
Approximately $1.76 million

Starting in 1837, gold coins in the US had 0.48375oz of gold per $10. So $27,000 in coins would be worth $1,755,432 given a price for gold of $1344 per oz. This excludes the value of the copper with which the gold was alloyed, which would be worth roughly another $30.

absherwin··on How Covert Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive
I'd assume not since your reply misses the point.

The government's wiretap order and the subsequent contempt proceedings suggests that despite the technical problems of Lavabit, the government did not get the data they sought. Had Snowden used GMail, do you believe the government would have received the information they sought?

This isn't security in the sense you'd use it in an audit. It's just a design decision. In the vernacular, designs that permit the release of private information are sometimes called insecure.

absherwin··on How Covert Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive
While many misinterpret the the facts, there's a kernel of truth in those discussions that you gloss over.

GMail is not secure against the NSA or even a state judge's warrant. That has numerous advantages for society but regardless it's not and never will be secure against government orders. That's never been its design. Levinson's service was secure against them for certain clients.

The reason the anti-NSA crowd is intrigued by him is the same reason sources told their secrets to Bob Woodward. He proved willing to protect Deep Throat's identity despite immense effort to out it. Similarly Levinson was willing to risk his business and contempt proceedings to protect Snowden.

absherwin··on Why Python Runs Slow, Part 1: Data Structures
Apologies for the confusion. The comparison was against a new-style class as described in the original post. All of the types have two ints. The code is now linked so you can inspect and respond.

Edit to respond to edit: Built-ins and slots are even faster but the key point is that the ctypes-based class is actually slower than simply using a class with ordinary Python variables.

The reason ctypes is slower is that addition isn't defined on c_ints which requires casting them back to Python ints for each operation. This can be avoided by using ctypes to call a C function to perform addition.

absherwin··on Why Python Runs Slow, Part 1: Data Structures
Using ctypes here is slower in CPython 2.7.5 than a simple class. Summing 10000 points takes 1.81ms using a simple class vs 2.22ms using the code above. ctypes is designed for compatibility not speed.

Using slots is 0.06ms faster while namedtuple is slower.

A bigger speedup in CPython can be achieved by just using the builtin sum function twice to avoid the for loop.

Here's a gist: https://gist.github.com/absherwin/8976587

absherwin··on Lenovo to buy Google's Motorola handset division
You're absolutely right that one needs to adjust for short-term liabilities since some of that cash would have gone to pay them (Longer-term liabilities would likely continue on to Lenovo). As big a question in this case is the amount of cash that will be in Motorola when Lenovo acquires it and was in their set-up box business when it was sold.

Unfortunately, the comment isn't editable so I'll add more detail here. The more accurate number is $3.32B in cash and equivalents less ($3.57B in current liabilities - $2.97 in current non-cash assets). This totals $2.72B.

However, I understated the tax benefit. Motorola had a $2.5B reserve against their tax assets since they weren't profitable, which is $0.8B less than my original estimate. So the total error from these two items is an understatement of Google's recoveries by $0.52B, which means they recovered about $10.9B of $12.5B.

Note that there are likely other errors still present in this new calculation due to both lack of information and less than thorough research.

absherwin··on Lenovo to buy Google's Motorola handset division
There are two types of tax losses. There are those related to previous losses that Google captured on acquisition. The $700MM a year estimate relates to the anticipated future losses of Motorola. While Google is losing that benefit, it is by definition less than the amount lost! So it's not actually a benefit.
absherwin··on Lenovo to buy Google's Motorola handset division
They shredded closer to a sixth of the initial price less whatever IP benefit they received.

Motorola had ~$3B in cash when acquired. Google previously sold their set-top box unit for $2.35B and realized about $1.7B in tax benefits from previous losses. However since acquiring it has taken $1.038B in losses, which is $0.67B post-tax. There will be another write down for the lost goodwill less the value of the remaining IP that should be worth very approximately $1B. So including the $3B from Lenovo, they recouped approximately $10.4B of the initial $12.5B purchase price.

Edit: Previous version excluded cash.

absherwin··on The one map you need to understand Ukraine’s crisis
Imagine that the President of this divided country allocated four times as much spending per capita to his political base and his son had earned hundreds of millions during his time in office.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych#Consolidation...

absherwin··on Yahoos Bristle at Mayer’s New QPR Ranking System and “Silent Layoffs”
This suggests there's a major problem in the mid-level management that's communicating the message. Telling a front-line manager to put someone in a bucket to meet the quota results in bad feelings, poor decisions that lead to loss of talent and bad publicity.

The alternative doesn't have to be abolishing stack ranking. The manager's manager should instead ask for justification and help the manager raise standards if they are too low. If not, he should repeat the same process with his manager. The +-3% variance indicates that the executive team expected this to happen. Since the feedback indicates that it's not happening in some (many) cases, hopefully this has triggered top-down conversations on the right way to implement.

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