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a-posteriori

97 karma · joined June 21, 2019

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a-posteriori··on Universal Health Coverage Could Save $1T and 114k Lives a Year, Yale Study
What are you proposing happens to providers who freely contract with patients at rates above Medicare reimbursement?
a-posteriori··on Stop Flock
I agree with you. What would an effective immigration enforcement agency look like?
a-posteriori··on I wrote to Flock's privacy contact to opt out of their domestic spying program
I am against Flock as a company.

Are they "installing a Global Positioning (GPS) tracking device on a vehicle and using the device to monitor the vehicles movement"? No.

a-posteriori··on Stop Flock
What would an effective immigration enforcement agency look like, in your opinion?
a-posteriori··on MIT study finds AI can replace 11.7% of U.S. workforce
It's been really disheartening to see the impact of media / hype mongering on groups within research institutions.

IMO, it's clear there is massive demand for any research that shows large positive or negative impacts of AI on the economy. The recent WSJ article about Aiden Toner-Rodgers is another great example of demand for AI impact outstripping the supply of AI impact. Obviously this thread's example is just shoddy research vs. the outright data fraud of Toner-Rodgers, but it's hard to not see the pattern.

I hope that MIT and other research institutions can figure this out...

a-posteriori··on MIT study finds AI can replace 11.7% of U.S. workforce
This is the same group (Ayush Chopra & Ramesh Raskar) that previously published the highly circulated (clickbait) article saying that 95% of AI pilots were failing based on extremely weak study design and questions that didn't even support the takeaways.

Anything coming from Ayush and Ramesh should be highly scrutinized. Ramesh should stick to studying Camera Culture in the Media Lab.

I will believe a study from MIT when it comes out of CSAIL.

a-posteriori··on 95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend
This study was led by a PI in the MIT Media Lab who studies cameras and their impact on society.

There's a reason it has a catchy headline, there's a reason you needed to fill in an email form to get access to the study, and there's a reason why the 2nd author has an agentic AI startup.

I thought it was a low quality article with no data or in detail methods. MIT needs to do better. This is the second article of this type in the last few months that caught headlines.

a-posteriori··on Trump Orders National Guard to Washington and Takeover of Capital’s Police
This reads a little bit like AI. Particularly the sentence flow of the final few lines.
a-posteriori··on Fewer people are buying electric cars in the US
Market-share is a cumulative metric, representing the sum of all purchases over several years. Sales is a flow metric, representing the sum of purchases in a given year. Market-share can increase, yet sales can be down in a given year.

Not everything is a conspiracy.

a-posteriori··on [dead]
This is one person's commentary without evidence?
a-posteriori··on Jury Finds Realtors Conspired, Awards Nearly $1.8B in Damages
Does anyone know what this actually means for real estate brokerage fees?

There are few markets which have supported 3-5% brokerage fees (even i-banking is <100bps at scale now) so I'm curious where the fees will settle.

a-posteriori··on Iconic tree at Hadrian's Wall's 'Sycamore Gap' has been 'felled'
This is really disappointing. Truly, some people just want to watch the world burn...
a-posteriori··on Doctor Who Livestreamed Surgeries on TikTok Has License Yanked, Thank God
Given she was not only livestreaming but also physically harming patients, I'm a little surprised that she is only having her license yanked.
a-posteriori··on VC firms face new scrutiny from LPs
Well put and I have also witnessed the same patterns at GP/LP meetings.

Ironically, Calpers' excuse for their poor returns is that the "top tier" VCs (such as Sequoia) now exclude them due to their public reporting requirements, and therefore they are forced to deploy to tier 2 managers.

a-posteriori··on VC firms face new scrutiny from LPs
Whenever I see articles like this I come back to Calpers venture returns over the last 20 years:

> Calpers' venture returns have been historically lackluster. From 2000 to 2020, its venture performance was a dismal 0.49%, compared to 11.59% in buyouts. Calpers declined to comment.

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/calpers-venture-asset-cl...

How LPs didn't take a step back and ask, "does this strategy work?". I don't know.

a-posteriori··on Millions of Americans could face eviction as housing protection expires in June
The issue with your argument is the government chanced the eviction rules ex post facto.

Yes, the poster is taking the risk that they tenants cannot pay, but they also took that risk with the assumption they could evict them and replace them with a paying tenant.

a-posteriori··on Consumer prices increase 2.6 percent
Is the inflation rate transitory or is the price level fluctuation transitory? Makes a big difference...
a-posteriori··on Consumer prices increase 2.6 percent
Why is questioning the CPI methodology FUD?
a-posteriori··on Apple Reports Second Quarter Results
Apple's fiscal year (internal accounting year) ends Sept, 30th instead of being aligned with the calendar year.
a-posteriori··on 2020 Census Apportionment Results
Wouldn't adding incremental representatives to the house "dilute" representation regardless? I would argue that this isn't a dilution of anyone's representation, it's a re-weighting of representatives to a more representative distribution based on underlying demographic movement over the last 10 years.
a-posteriori··on The real reason to end the death penalty
I enjoyed this thought experiment, but isn't it sort of a false equivalence argument?

Wouldn't it make more sense as a thought experiment if only "Yes" voters could be executed only if and when convicted of a crime deserving of capital punishment?

a-posteriori··on “They introduce kernel bugs on purpose”
I would argue it should be "due to past academic research and activities of our PhD students and professors"
a-posteriori··on Square acquires majority of Tidal in $297M deal
I think this makes tons of sense when you look at Cash App's distribution strategy. They have heavily focused on targeting the rap and music communities through influencer marketing.

> Square has run similar campaigns [referencing a seperate Burger King campaign] with rappers like Travis Scott and Lil B and other influencers, triggering a network effect for the Cash App. With 120,000 replies, Travis Scott’s tweet gained more momentum than Burger King’s. If only 129 of the 120,000 who commented on his tweet were new to Cash App, then Square’s cost of customer acquisition would have been less than the $925 per user that banks pay on average, according to our research, and 6,000 comments, only 5% of the total, would have dropped it to $20. Moreover, as the converted users appear to spread the word on social media, the Cash App can acquire additional users from just one.

https://fintechradar.substack.com/p/breakdown-2-a-deep-dive-...

a-posteriori··on Interest surges in top colleges, while struggling ones scrape for applicants
When I was there, less than 8% of the students were paying full tuition (of which a good chunk were international students).

At a certain point, the colleges start to look like perfectly price discriminating monopolists: rather than charging the highest price to each customer, they set a maximum price ceiling and then subsidize the gap to the customer's marginal ability to pay.

a-posteriori··on Naked shorting: The curious incident of the shares that didn't exist (2005)
I'm curious if you have any more information on this, not in a snarky way, just curious.
a-posteriori··on Capitol Attack Was Months in the Making on Facebook
Violence is categorically bad, regardless of what the intentions are. Referring to violence as "doing things" purposely avoids recognizing this.
a-posteriori··on Tuesday was my last day as CEO of CircleUp
Adding the google cache. Looks like the medium is down.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-EgQnmp...