1,452 karma · joined December 19, 2014
It becomes a big political fight over how much of the revenue should be directed to social programs, so the tax policy changes every 4 years. A straight rebate gets wide support and taking it away becomes more and more unpopular as people get used to receiving it.
There does seem to be some regulatory testing going on here.
Consequently:
> We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely events. And we underestimate the likelihood of likely events
How to stop doing that:
> #1. Always consider base rates when making judgments about probability.
> #2. Focus on trends and patterns.
> #3. Take the time to think before making a judgment.
> #4. Keep track of information you might need to use in a judgment far off in the future.
> #5. Go back and revisit old information.
https://www.darkenergysurvey.org/des-year-3-cosmology-result...
The overview paper appears to be this one:
https://www.darkenergysurvey.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/...
(the first published paper at the bottom of the page. I'd have posted the title and abstract, but they've disabled copy-paste.)
Is finding the right neurons just luck? Does the person somehow adapt to the interface?
I don't know about everyone else, but the last year working from home my life has been an avalanche of video calls. Not infrequently, there's a 60 second pitch that is the most important part of the call.
What do you think of this idea
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27090010
to crowd-source local inventory logging via virtual stores?
> analysis indicate that early anthropogenic fire relaxed seasonal constraints on ignitions, influencing vegetation composition and erosion
If it is settled with a payout, then it has succeeded.
The only mitigating factor is Khan Academy and its surrounding ecosystem. A motivated learner with internet access can excel in spite of the school system.
https://www.washingtonpolicy.org/publications/detail/lawmake...