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ZeroGravitas

30,994 karma · joined March 23, 2009

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ZeroGravitas··on US home electricity prices by state since 2019
https://usenergydata.org/ goes a little deeper.

They both source the information from the same place I think.

ZeroGravitas··on Climate Essay: The Inconvenient Truth Behind the Inconvenient Truth (2026)
This seems like mostly pseudo-profound bullshit.

Like the stuff about Australia exploiting gas. The average Australian is being ripped off royally by that.

From Saul Griffiths:

> Here is the part that should make every taxpayer in the country furious: those gas exports — the ones we are extending the life of, approving new ones for, calling them "strategic" — THEY BARELY EARN AUSTRALIA ANYTHING. Norway used its gas revenues to build vehicle-charging networks and help Norwegians buy electric cars. We don't even seem to try to make revenues. The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax raises less revenue in a year than the federal government collects from the excise on beer. Norway runs a sovereign wealth fund worth US$1.7 trillion off its hydrocarbons. Qatar funds its entire welfare state on LNG. We give it away on legacy contracts negotiated when oil was $30 a barrel and watch the LNG tankers leave Karratha. We are not even getting paid to be a petrostate. We are other people's petrostate, and too stupid to profit from it.

https://energyandstuff.substack.com/p/46bn-per-year-what-aus...

So if it's all about money in a broad "people want to save money" sense, why is a small group of people and corporations ripping off Australians to such a degree? Shouldn't their desire for money drive then to do something?

No, because their media is bought, their politicians are bought, and their idiots are all useful to these interests. So they let themselves be robbed.

And the same is true on the closely linked topic of climate, and across nations from the US to Germany.

ZeroGravitas··on Vermont replacing power plants with home batteries
The negative price can either be from subsidized renewables that are passing some of that subsidy onto people who use the power (a good thing!) or remaining coal plants that can't flex fast enough and would rather pay than incur extra costs from flexing (which is good in that they are being effectively fined for lack of flexibility but bad in that they are inflexible and still generating dirty power while more flexible renewables curtail).

If clean energy is being curtailed increasing usage is a better response which negative prices also incentivize but in many jurisdictions they refuse to pass those price signals onto users because they'd rather waste clean energy so they can sell them dirty energy later.

ZeroGravitas··on Ask HN: What are you reading?
I would also recommend all of discworld but thought I'd throw in the standard warning that it really warms up after the first few books.

There are various online guides as to the best place to jump in if you start at the very beginning and wonder what all the fuss is about.

ZeroGravitas··on Sustainable energy without the hot air (2008)
Just before he died in 2016 he gave an interview "revealing" his true thoughts on the matter but I think like you say it came through obviously enough in his work:

> There is this appalling delusion that people have that we can take this thing that is currently producing 1% of our electricity and we can just scale it up and if there is a slight issue of it not adding up, then we can just do energy efficiency,” he said. “Humanity really does needs to pay attention to arithmetic and the laws of physics – we need a plan that adds up.”

> Prof MacKay had previously avoided being drawn into the political debate about energy, but told Lynas: “I have always tried to avoid advocating particular solutions but maybe because time is getting thinner I should call a spade a spade.”

> The key for the UK, he said, was a zero-carbon solution that works in the winter, when energy demand is highest but sunshine is lowest and winds can drop for days at a time. “The sensible thing to do for a country like the UK, I think, is to focus on CCS, which the world needs anyway, and nuclear,” said Prof MacKay.

> The decision on a new nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point, which the government hopes will be the first of a new generation of plants, has been delayed until September.

> “Then if you ask what is the optimal amount of wind and solar to add in then the answer is going to be almost zero,” he said. “I love wind turbines – they are the cathedrals of the modern age – but they are a waste of money if you have a low carbon solution that gets you through the winter … because when the wind blows you are going to have to either turn them down or something else down that you have already paid for like nuclear or CCS.”

Maybe he would have changed his mind as prices and delivery timelines diverged but many of the people who were most enthusiastic about his work because it reflected their nuclear preference didn't, so who knows.

Though maybe his kind of person that liked nuclear and heat pumps and EVs all just changed their mind based on new evidence and we are left with the people who mysteriously like nuclear but don't want to use the output for heat and transport.

ZeroGravitas··on Vermont replacing power plants with home batteries
I don't know if it's just because I've read about similar schemes for nearly a decade and so this story seems very boringly normal to me but...

The level of aggressive skepticism in some of these highly voted comments seem really out of proportion. Scary and cult-like even.

ZeroGravitas··on Optimizing x264 settings and per-title ladders
Decoding speed can be affected by encoding choices. Meta and others have taken advantage of this to specifically target low end phone software decode.

I believe it's basically about scoring decode operations on both quality and decode speed impact to optimise both goals at once.

ZeroGravitas··on DraftKings is using AI to behaviorally target chronic gamblers
I've seen this "it only affects problem gamblers" thing so much that I suspect it's an intentional strategy to shift blame that takes advantage of people's natural tendency to believe the just world fallacy (bad things only happen to bad people).
ZeroGravitas··on Without the Hot Air
It doesn't change the physics though. I think the author under discussion actually gets this right in some chapters with regard to the superior efficiency of EVs, though not sure if that was a later revision or not.
ZeroGravitas··on Without the Hot Air
Cost would depend on battery manufacturing but the original founders of Tesla created spreadsheets of well-to-wheel efficiency based on available data in 2002 and knew that electric came out as an obvious winner and so commited to starting the company based on that.
ZeroGravitas··on Sustainable energy without the hot air (2008)
Yes, I disagree with some of his takes but he was spot on regarding heat pumps:

> Let me spell this out. Heat pumps are superior in efficiency to condens- ing boilers, even if the heat pumps are powered by electricity from a power station burning natural gas. If you want to heat lots of buildings using natural gas, you could install condensing boilers, which are “90% ef- ficient,” or you could send the same gas to a new gas power station making electricity and install electricity-powered heat pumps in all the buildings; the second solution’s efficiency would be somewhere between 140% and 185%. It’s not necessary to dig big holes in the garden and install underfloor heating to get the benefits of heat pumps; the best air-source heat pumps (which require just a small external box, like an air-conditioner’s) can deliver hot water to normal radiators with a coefficient of performance above 3.

ZeroGravitas··on U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982
You seem to basically understand that Trump is a chaotic fool yet you've still bought into the 4D chess explanation for this war.

Ignoring the reality that he let himself be talked into the Iran war by Israel, over strong US military objections. And suggesting instead he's secretly starting a war with China by cutting off oil to the entire far east.

A move which has only strengthened Chinas power in the region.

It's recursively stupid all the way down.

ZeroGravitas··on Musk, the Movie
We have AI now, can't someone magic up an online database that can be sorted by "unnecessary deaths" or "level of cringe" or "severity of crime" with links to sources rather than force us to sit through a 4 hour movie?
ZeroGravitas··on Intellectuals Are Fucking Idiots
I think that's just poor wording:

As the "non-proliferation" treaty they link to makes clear in it's very name and in the full explanation, they want to first limit unnecessary expansion.

https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/about#about

> Develop the plan that would allow governments to stop building out the problem by ending the expansion of coal, oil and gas production

ZeroGravitas··on Intellectuals Are Fucking Idiots
This is also a current story about operations that after careful study don't actually improve patient outcomes.

The people who've been doing the operations for decades are much less open to this new informstion than newly trained doctors.

ZeroGravitas··on Intellectuals Are Fucking Idiots
Under a picture of "Just Stop Oil" protestors:

>Do you think this is really about climate change? No, these are empty human beings, desperate for their lives to mean something. And their apocalyptic climate change model has done that for them. It has nothing to do with science. They probably don’t realize that the marginal rate of energy cost is fast approaching zero. That technological innovation is exponential and carbon capture can likely be made economical relatively soon. Hell, they probably aren’t even pro-nuclear.

From a BBC explainer of what these protestors want:

"Just Stop Oil (JSO) wants the UK to stop approving new fossil fuel projects, which are a major cause of climate change."

That's a narrow goal and they stopped when they thought they'd achieved it.

So their allegedly "apocalyptic" climate change model doesn't even stretch as far as stopping producing from existing oil fields, just new ones before they become sunk costs. Which makes sense because as this rant says, we have new and better tech to replace it.

They are advocating the reasonsable compromise position. This guy is the "intellectual" who isn't letting facts get in the way of his rant about smart people.

I'm guessing he's also missed the irony of citing Pol Pot killing all the educated folk as the intro to his "smart people are the problem" rant.

ZeroGravitas··on EV Sales Are Booming in Europe with Gasoline at $10 a Gallon
Germany is slightly ahead (a few percentage points) of the EU plus EFTA plus UK market average according to data:

https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?lang=en&freq=monthl...

Note the German data goes back further so you can't directly eyeball them without accounting for that.

Currently just trailing France and further behind Sweden, Denmark, Norway.

ZeroGravitas··on EV Sales Are Booming in Europe with Gasoline at $10 a Gallon
> double our energy production

Electrification generally reduces energy use, while increasing electricity use, due to much higher efficiency.

So if you are correct it will only be because you don't produce the energy used in ICE but instead import it after buying it on the global market.

ZeroGravitas··on A Vindication of Bjorn Lomborg
He's a shill for fossil fuel interests, as is that entire site. It's no wonder they like him and are happy to lie about his vindication.

This is a guy who when Russia invaded Crinea he said that wind and solar didn't work and so we should spend that money instead inventing a totally new kind of low carbon technology.

Absolute jaw dropping stupidity, if he wasn't a shill. But he was and is.

I mean he's a step above the Trump-like "Chinese Hoax" rhetoric but you still have to be a complete idiot to think he is anything other than a shill.

ZeroGravitas··on Peter Thiel slams pope's AI encyclical as gift to Chinese Communist Party
Thiel was an early supporter of Donald Trump, who is called "Nation Builder Trump" in China due to his amazing ability to promote their interests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jianguo

ZeroGravitas··on Europe Must Choose Between Power and Dependence
By which they meant "buy more US made weapons". And got stroppy if they tried to buy and build locally instead.
ZeroGravitas··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
The zonal pricing differences in Sweden are mostly a mathematical mirage. The cheap zones 1 and 2 are combined together only a third of the demand of zone 3.

If you waved a magic wand and combined them with infinite transmission for free the price in the expensive area with all the people and energy demand would barely move. (It would disproportionately rise in the cheap zones).

So any sane approach wouldn't spend money shifting the small amount of surplus power from the cheap region but spend the same money on say offshore wind feeding into the expensive zone. This is basically the pitch for zonal pricing, it tells you where demand and supply are needed. Building lots of transmission until the price is the same everywhere defeats the purpose. Building lots of offshore wind was the actual plan but most of those got rejected on bogus national security grounds.

The rejected wind farms would have doubled the entire country's generation.

ZeroGravitas··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
You've quoted strike prices at the time, adjusted for inflation Hinckley is the most expensive of the three you quote. And it lasts nearly twice as long.

In fact this nuclear plant was the first use of CfD.

It's a great scheme because it (in theory) prevents cost blowouts being added to energy prices. Good incentives to get things built quickly and cheaply.

The actual price for Hinclkey is roughly a third higher than the CfD and that extra cost should be borne by the French taxpayers via EDF.

In reality they shifted some costs onto the next nuclear plant instead, working around the CfD and foisting the excess costs back onto the British tax/billpayer.

Obviously they refused to use CfD for the next UK nuclear plant because unlike wind power, they have no faith in it being completed anywhere near on budget. And if they bid the real cost it wouldn't get built in the first place.

So now UK taxpayers are paying in advance for a decade to get new nuclear built with no cap on cost.

ZeroGravitas··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
Yes this is true. Once you include all subsidies nuclear is cheaper than fossil fuels. Much cheaper than coal and oil and slightly cheaper or on par with gas.

But, the same is true for solar and wind which starts off much cheaper than fossil fuels in the first place.

Most new build energy is renewables, that's what nuclear needs to compete with.

ZeroGravitas··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
The 100% state owned EDF group take sole responsibility for the finances? What a relief for the taxpayers of France...

But at least the cost is factored in from the start. Those costs often double during construction but at least we know the decommissioning costs are factored into the fake numbers they use to get approval to start builds.

ZeroGravitas··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
When EDF signed a fixed cost contract to deliver nuclear in England the CFO resigned.

It's currently double its original budget and likely to grow further.

The "profits" are from running decades old reactors that were never transparently costed.

ZeroGravitas··on Italian parliament votes for return to nuclear energy
The environmental argument would be to reduce coal as quickly as possible.

Solar and wind each deployed more than double the coal displacing generation in china than nuclear over the last 15 years. And that includes their early years when they were just getting started. It's triple over the last 10 years or about 6x (wind) or 8x (solar) more in the last 5 years.

ZeroGravitas··on Sex differences in attention are present at birth
> Professor Carrie Allison, Deputy Director of the Autism Research Centre and another member of the research team, said: “The differences we see don’t apply to all male or all female infants, and are only seen when you compare groups of male and female infants, on average. There’s a lot a variation within, and overlap between, each sex. Our future research needs to better understand that variation.”
ZeroGravitas··on How Claude is uplifting biomolecular modeling
This positive message slightly undermined by the CEO warning about bioterrorists using Claude a week ago.
ZeroGravitas··on Regeneration of used batteries via electrode–electrolyte interphase dissolution
I think Moss Landing was NMC as it was an older battery site.

These scientists are monitoring the impact on a local wildlife and are finding Nickel, Manganese and Cobalt traces:

https://elkhornslough.org/reserve/research/moss-landing-batt...

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