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VagueMag

4,192 karma · joined October 16, 2022

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VagueMag··on 0+: A double digit Sharpe HFT strategy
Yeah I'm pretty sure cables will always beat satellites over the same distance. One interesting idea I heard was to string stationary drones that would relay microwaves across the ocean, similar to what was done with the relay towers between Chicago and New York.
VagueMag··on 0+: A double digit Sharpe HFT strategy
Right, so that's "stacking to many levels of depth." To add some color to my point about how it "adds risk," the day Kim Jong-Il died, the market spiked lower and I was instantly lifted on every stacked offer I had in every put. I managed to recover a bit but it still took out about a quarter of a year's PNL in one fell swoop.
VagueMag··on 0+: A double digit Sharpe HFT strategy
> Top equities on US exchanges like NASDAQ and NYSE might be out of the scope for the average hobby quant, but a thinly traded penny stock, or a low-cap cryptocurrency on a smaller crypto exchange, might not be.

These kinds of markets tend to exhibit the kind of price moves and thin liquidity which make pulling off 0+ style trading very difficult.

VagueMag··on 0+: A double digit Sharpe HFT strategy
Yeah I was hired by a prop trading firm of old Chicago floor traders in 2009 and then shortly asked to come up with an algo strategy in Kospi 200 options, with no help from any experienced algo traders. I worked something out completely on my own which was very similar to 0+, it just follows naturally once you understand the dynamics of a microstructure with low fees and FIFO queues.

They really gloss over "getting to the front of a strong queue," which generally requires stacking to many levels of depth in the market (which adds risk), or finding some way to join or remain in weak queues before they become strong, which requires some other method of estimating a theoretical value. Estimating and tracking depth in the queue at each level was definitely a significant part of the more sophisticated code I wrote.

The article may overstate the importance of lower latency as well. I definitely was not the fastest at the time, running some fairly non-optimized Java when I knew there were some faster C++ players in the market, and I was still able to do relatively well.

VagueMag··on OpenAI's Sam Altman attends secretive annual meeting with the world’s elite
I got an email from a recruiter for Eric Schmidt's startup incubator. Two things it was working on was programmable money (think CBDCs with all sorts of power to fuck with how you can spend your money) and "turning human capital into an alternative investable asset class." He's also well known as an outspoken advocate of converting Western militaries into fully amoral murder drones.
VagueMag··on Peter Thiel Is Latest Billionaire Said to Have Met with Jeffrey Epstein
Is this a common thing among billionaires? Like, any random guy with a few hundred million dollars and a sex trafficking conviction can just say, "I would like to meet with all of the powerful billionaires of Silicon Valley" and make it happen?

It's very interesting, even the NYT seems to be at pains to frame this as "Epstein met with so-and-so," as though he was their patron and not the other way around. But what reason do we have to believe that was so?

VagueMag··on Peter Thiel Is Latest Billionaire Said to Have Met with Jeffrey Epstein
What evidence is there that Epstein was a financier, other than that the press keeps dutifully repeating the claim? The few reporters who tried to look into it weren't able to find any traders or brokers who knew of Epstein or had done any business with him.
VagueMag··on Peter Thiel Is Latest Billionaire Said to Have Met with Jeffrey Epstein
At this point it's beginning to look as though meeting with Jeffrey Epstein was some sort of prerequisite to joining the club.
VagueMag··on The false lesson of lockdown scepticism
No I don't think you're open to any sort of arguments or changes to your position at all, and my comment wasn't really intended for you.
VagueMag··on The false lesson of lockdown scepticism
Actually the article zeros in quite well on the suspension of democratic process in favor of "emergency" powers, and the mistakes skeptics are making in attributing all the manifest and abject failures of the COVID response to excessive government power, rather than corporate control and influence of the process.
VagueMag··on As COVID raged in New York hospitals, executives pocketed $73M in bonuses (2022)
At the very least, we shouldn't have been hearing one word about how the hospital system was supposedly stretched to its limits (which was the whole justification for extending "15 days to slow the spread" into "lockdown until we have a vaccine") while there was still money and resources to pay these bonuses.
VagueMag··on [dead]
Noam Chomsky and the Compatible Left: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35764773

Chomsky's remarks on the unvaccinated from 2021: https://www.yahoo.com/video/noam-chomsky-unvaccinated-remove...

VagueMag··on EPFL cancels Stallman's lecture citing “the situation regarding” his persona
Locals who had never even visited called it "Pedophile Island."
VagueMag··on EPFL cancels Stallman's lecture citing “the situation regarding” his persona
This is a classic motte and bailey: "it's normal for adults to be attracted to adolescents" used to defend "it was reasonable for a fat CS prof in his 70s to believe a young minor on Epstein's island wanted to have sex with him absent any coercion going on (or for Stallman to advance this idea)."
VagueMag··on EPFL cancels Stallman's lecture citing “the situation regarding” his persona
Not just shun, but regard with the utmost suspicion!
VagueMag··on EPFL cancels Stallman's lecture citing “the situation regarding” his persona
Stallman made some remarks defending Marvin Minsky (very poorly) from victims' allegations that he abused young girls on Epstein's island.

Meanwhile, Reid Hoffman is now known to have visited the island and has not seen any firestorm of cancellations, as far as I'm aware.

VagueMag··on As COVID raged in New York hospitals, executives pocketed $73M in bonuses (2022)
I don't see any evidence that was actually in supply though. The executive leadership seems to have done nothing to interrupt the rampant overuse of ventilators or remdesivir, both of which were actively harmful to Covid patients. They also all lined up behind the vaccine mandates which had absolutely zero benefit in reducing transmission and aggravated the staffing problems. They're far more deserving of pink slips than bonuses.
VagueMag··on Dianne Feinstein's Health Crisis Goes Back Farther Than We Knew
At this point I think it calls to mind "cope" more than "hope."
VagueMag··on Dianne Feinstein's Health Crisis Goes Back Farther Than We Knew
Was with you right up until the part where you said the behind-the-scenes handlers are acting on behalf of the public's will or interest.
VagueMag··on Dianne Feinstein's Health Crisis Goes Back Farther Than We Knew
Rolling Stone is using the royal "we" in the headline to refer to "the public" and not "reporters and newsmedia," whom the piece shows have played an active and knowing role in concealing Feinstein's mental incapacity.
VagueMag··on As COVID raged in New York hospitals, executives pocketed $73M in bonuses (2022)
Did you read the article? Those problems didn't impact hospital revenues because they were handed billions in emergency funding from the government.
VagueMag··on As COVID raged in New York hospitals, executives pocketed $73M in bonuses (2022)
In fact, hospital staffing levels fell after the initial outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and had not fully recovered two years later. Meanwhile, it was considered everyone's personal obligation to undertake every possible manner of precaution to avoid infection so as to protect the putatively "overloaded" hospital systems.
VagueMag··on Intel One Mono Typeface
Am I the only one who's a fan of what you might call the "default" monospace fonts on Apple and Google platforms? I very slightly prefer SF Mono (the Apple one) and use it on my Macs, but since it's not free I'll use Roboto Sans Mono (the Google one) in my Unix envs. I find this also helps give my brain a little visual cue as to which environment I'm working in.
VagueMag··on Rare myocarditis after Covid shots: Study rules out some common culprits
I mean that the myocarditis risks from the COVID vaccines and from SARS-CoV-2 infection are cumulative. Maybe "additive" would be a more precise term to get at what I am saying: that the choice is not between two mutually exclusive risks, but rather whether to accept the added myocarditis risk of the vaccines in exchange for whatever benefit they may offer, which are both metrics which vary wildly by health demographic.
VagueMag··on Russians take language test to avoid expulsion from Latvia
> outside of particular ethnic or religious groups

lol

VagueMag··on Rare myocarditis after Covid shots: Study rules out some common culprits
> According to a large 2022 study led by researchers at Harvard University and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the group at highest risk of myocarditis and pericarditis after vaccination—males ages 12 to 17—saw 35.9 cases per 100,000 (0.0359 percent) after a second vaccine dose, while the rate was nearly double after a COVID-19 infection in the same age group, with 64.9 cases per 100,000 (0.0649 percent).

Every article on this subject seems to feel the need to clear its throat by citing numbers like this, but I'm not sure why. Since the vaccines do not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection, the risks are cumulative, not mutually exclusive. The protection they are said to provide is against severe cases and death, which are already vanishingly rare in the adolescent cohort to begin with.

There's also good reason to doubt that there has been an honest accounting of the causes of myocarditis. A friend of mine is now experiencing cardiac issues after 3 injections of Moderna -- his doctors attribute it to the mild COVID case he had (despite taking all the shots) and have not even considered (let alone reported) the possibility that it is an adverse event.

A huge population-level study in Israel found no increased risk of myocarditis from SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 before the vaccine rollout: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/

VagueMag··on Russians take language test to avoid expulsion from Latvia
What Russia did is save Latvia from being liquidated entirely by the Nazis.
VagueMag··on Russians take language test to avoid expulsion from Latvia
"Want to come to Canada" is not really a relevant example in this case, some of the people facing expulsion by this fascistic and ethnocentric policy have lived in Latvia for decades. It's explicitly being framed as a loyalty test.
VagueMag··on FBI agents accuse CIA of 9/11 coverup
The headline did not sit well with me either, maybe something like "coverup related to 9/11" would be better?

It's funny, I have a very different take on the use of the phrasing "lab leak," since to me it seems intended to preempt any consideration of an intentional release.

VagueMag··on FDA Approves First Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccine
That Thai study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36006288/ Looks like the actual number was 2.33%, which is still completely godawful. Funny how you haven't heard of it! If you actually believe the CDC when they claim there have been <100 cases of myocarditis from these shots I have a bridge in New York to sell you.
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