116,194 karma · joined July 27, 2010
Contact me at hn@jacek.zlydach.pl.
(I mean it. Don't hesitate, I'm always happy to continue interesting conversations after their HN thread disappears off the front page.)
Homepage: http://jacek.zlydach.pl. More: https://keybase.io/temporal_pl.
I do software nowadays, but I'm constantly looking for opportunities to do something actually useful for humanity. If you know of some, please let me know - especially if they involve biotech, cleantech or NewSpace industry.
(see also: http://jacek.zlydach.pl/blog/2018-01-06-going-far-going-small.html)
Getting the game to work and upgrading some graphics was something I dreamed of since childhood (and attempted myself several times). I casually threw Opus 5.5 at it and was surprised at the result.
Didn't know until now that everyone else is doing the same with their favorite old games now.
(In my case, the game is Star Trek: Generations.)
Most doctors aren't running departments in major hospitals, or advising government on policy. They don't earn the big bucks. And even hospitals themselves tend to run in the red all the time; it's sometimes hard to disentangle where greed ends, and longer-term interests of patients begin, as you have multiple people and organizations pulling in different directions for different reasons.
RE private medical universities, N=1 but in Poland we have a private provider pushing hard for training their own doctors "because public system is too slow and limited", and it's hard to tell whether they have a point, or whether it's a private-driven attempt at privatizing national healthcare, or a mix of both.
But obviously, it adds up to something greater than went in; in aggregate, our contributions are something to awe.
But my point is, if you zoom in at the marginal, incremental contributions of any individual human in this process, it's really hard for me to say LLMs are not at the same level already.
On this topic, people like to compare LLMs to Einstein, but as far as I know, Einstein did not zero-shot special relativity in an afternoon. He built it up incrementally over time, it took him three times longer than the time between first ChatGPT release and today, and it depended on centuries of prior art, culminating in the right observation and right notation being available to him in his moment of greatness.
SaaS killed Open Source with it, two decades ago.
Just evacuate the people and blow it up, accepting that it'll inconvenience a lot of folks and the national budget even more, but will also briefly revitalize the local economy, as every contractor there is will maximize the opportunity to suck out the funds set aside for repairing buildings damaged in the explosion - and make sure to record the disposal itself from every possible angle, with most expensive cameras government can buy, as selling clips of it to the media industry would be a licensing goldmine and recoup some of the costs.
Hell, turn it into a spectator event, and tourists coming to see it may just pay for the whole thing.
The picture I have in mind is OpenAI running their most advanced model in a loop over all the open mathematical problems they can find, just to verify that the model is indeed very smart. Neither the company nor the model actually care about the problems, it's just a cheap exercise machine for them, but the problems get solved and mathematicians don't even get to participate.
Like, even those who accepted the "centaur" thinking, man + machine, won't benefit because by the time they get their hands on good enough models, everything is already done.
It's an emotional thing first and foremost - people who care about the thing can't do the thing, because it's already been done by those who couldn't care less about it.
And before someone goes "poor mathematicians", a food for thought: this is just an early instance of what looks like our shared destiny.
I said here before: given the economics of progress in AI and robotics, it's obvious what the natural division of labor is: computers do the thinking, humans do the menial, manual labor. AI will do politics and philosophy, so you have more time to fold laundry and scrub the toilet.
(Within context of larger canon, I take S2 as a cautionary tale about what happens if humanity is allowed to retain an identity of an independent polity on the interstellar stage. Federation's biggest benefit for the galaxy turns out to be keeping humans contained and putting their energy and creativity into more useful pursuits than asserting independence on other people's territory.)
But let's not forget that Lower Decks and SNW corrected hard on earier NuTrek transgressions against the utopian future.
Do you also piss in the pools and spit in other people's soup as you pass a waiter by?
Unless you and me are using entirely different classes of LLMs, surely you'll admit that chatting with LLM is nothing like IRC or old-school IM-ing a friend, and more like exchanging Messenger/WhatsApp messages with stranger.
For me, something there crosses a boundary where I switch from "irc msg" to "Write a proper message, please." style.
A virus isn't a living being with emotions, motivations, fears, etc. Doesn't stop it from spreading and leaving mayhem behind.
Now change the gun for a radioisotope powder, or a vial of pathogens, and it doesn't matter it was ultimately your responsibility - hundreds or thousands or millions of people are still dead.
That's why normies do not get to play with toys whose lethal consequences scale far beyond the irresponsible users.
Why would ASI care? At that point, we're rapidly becoming a nuisance, and it can develop better ways of "ensuring local and global stability" than keeping us around.
What do you think life itself is?
It's a runaway gray goo scenario, just squishy and moist.
Simple natural selection. AIs that wirehead will get outsmarted and outcompeted by ones that don't.
So imagine taking a year-old SOTA model and running it at 100 tokens per second on an edge device. That's enough to feed a screen's worth of content through it and power decent multilingual message suggestions on IM.
Imagine running it at 1000 tps. That's enough to reparse that screen mid-keystroke, and give you semantic autocomplete in text. Or fully general "the phone has a good idea of what you're attempting to do" context at all times.
There's many, many new classes of features that will open up if decent enough models can be run on edge devices at 100+ "intelligence per second".
Starting point was literally original installer copied over from a CD, which I hold on to and dug up from an old hard drive, plus a short prompt asking to make it work. Installing Ghirda and developing a whole framework for patching the binary, as well as substituting DirectDraw with its own DLL shim, was Claude's own invention.
I imagine some must; sensitivity to second-order effects as a drive is arguably a circuit known to not be present in many people - I'd go as far as speculating that it's an anomaly to have it.
Except when we do, but it doesn't make for flashy press releases. Pet owners, vets, farmers throughout history - anyone who lives alongside animals, cares for them, and is open to developing an emotional relationship with them, knows animals are more than just small finite state machines made of meat. But it takes time to spot and learn the patterns of behavior, and as I said, it's a two-way street; the animal has to "open up" and learn you as much as you have to learn them.
It is a kind of thing that's difficult to cleanly verify and reproduce, and it's also kinda mundane. The cases that made headlines look like Clever Hans the other commenter mentioned.
I imagine that a better classifier, some general AI system that gets to learn and observe the animals, would be able to tease out the patterns and then translate them to English, and then that would be reproducable and make for flashy headlines.
There is no answer to that consistent with the premise you assumed out of charity :).