Short term there are only upsides, but in the long run this will weaken the local governments.
386 karma · joined March 24, 2012
Short term there are only upsides, but in the long run this will weaken the local governments.
With endorsements, it's more likely that I'll get advertised products that suit my needs, because I'll get more advertised products that people who are similar to me have endorsed.
It still doesn't remove the marketing budget factor, but it may more strongly correlate the things that are advertised to me with the things that best fit my needs.
It was a boneheaded mistake but it's not what got him arrested.
It has also been my observation that you can grow a tolerance to and dependence on ADHD medicine.
I support the author's goal of finding some other solution that motivates him to practice his focus.
Transactional confidence is based on the probability of someone compromising the network for enough blocks to undo a spend that you've already honored (IE you gave them what they paid for, then they undo the transaction). At 6 blocks, you are assuming that an attacker won't have the computational power to reverse 6 blocks in a row.
When blocks come out every 2 hours, that means you need to find every single block for 12 hours, or essentially control the blockchain for a long time.
When the block rate is down at 5 minutes, you only need to control the network for 30 minutes - you have more chances to get lucky and undo 6 transactions in a row in your 12 hours of purchased computing time.
A halved block rate does not mean you need less computational power, but it does mean that computational power is probably cheaper and 6 blocks worth of power is going to be more affordable.
Not to say that we shouldn't move forward with hyperloop, or at least build a proof-of-concept somewhere. At the proposed price for hyperloop, you could replace all existing Amtrak transportation in America with a hyperloop and still pay about the same amount for a ticket.
To me, that's worth investing in.
This enables your social network app to keep up with your relationships, without you needing to tell it that X is now just an acquaintance and Y is suddenly an important person in your life. In fact, your app might figure those changes out before you do.
Even under the threat of panopticon, these advancements are attractive.
But future technological advancements can help us escape giving our data to corporations. Imagine using a bittorrent style service to back up your (encrypted) files instead of drop box. Imagine using freenet to back up your files. Imagine using bitcoin to replace credit cards. Imagine using a mesh-network to avoid centralized ISPs.
A lot of these technologies aren't practical yet, but are moving forward. Changing the govenrment will be a long, slow, painful process. While we are waiting on the bureaucracy, we can work to advance decentralized technologies that will help put privacy back in our own hands.
I do think though while you might be drawing from one 'pool', it's a pool that you can work to expand. To me this seems to be the same vein of psychology that makes ADHD medicine ineffective for kids on the long term. There's one pool of resources you are drawing from but like muscular strength you aren't doomed to your current limits.
I'm not complaining, nor have I seen better.
It looks like a great tool but I don't really know what I'm supposed to be searching for.
And while public key authentication may seem difficult to implement server-side by doing such a thing you will never risk a database password leak again.
The first problem is that there is a highly predictable and (at the moment) constant supply of bitcoins, which means that the value of the coin will adjust like a commodity as more or less people start to use it. It's like Gold or Oil in the sense that when people want it, it's worth a lot, and when people don't want it, it's not as expensive. That chains the value to the demand, meaning that any time you use bitcoin as a store-of-value, you are putting yourself at the complete mercy of the market.
Many advocates believe that as the number of people using bitcoin grows the price will stabilize, but I think that using bitcoin as a store-of-value is going to end up like using the gold standard, especially because some early adopters have tens of thousands to even a million (Satoshi is believed to have a million) bitcoins, and any of them could decide to 'cash out', which would dramatically change the supply and potentially affect the whole market.
Another problem is that the currency is highly traceable, and while you can do things to obfuscate your spending habits there are lots of techniques involving statistical analysis that shed doubt on the effectiveness of obfuscation. You can take this back to the "I have nothing to hide" argument, but there are plenty of powerful parties that will be more interested in a currency that can't be traced (imagine big business or big finance), and an untraceable currency would certainly be more attractive.
But to me the biggest current problem with bitcoin is the uncertainty. There are many conflicting schools of thought in economics each with their own reasons why bitcoin is good or bad. But beyond the basics, macroeconomics often involves a lot of voodoo, and for any new paradigm there will be major schools of thought that will believe the new paradigm is bad or unstable in some way. There is no real way to fight this except to accept that we ultimately have no idea how new economic paradigms will affect our world, and that some of the naysayers may be correct and thus caution should be used.
Then, the only vulnerability is your local machine. If someone hacks a website, the only password related information they can access is your public key, but you tell that to everyone anyway. They won't be able to use that to log onto any other website, even though you use the same password for all of them.
You would still probably want to use multiple public keys, and two-factor authentication (to eliminate the single-point-of-failure risk), but the technology already exists for us to be doing this. It just needs that extra layer that will make using such a system easy for grandma, and then of course for websites to start accepting public key authentication instead of password authentication.
This dollar amount is also particularly low because ASIC technology is new - most people who have put money into ASICs aren't even mining yet. Once the technology is settled in, controlling the block chain will become more expensive.
Furthermore, the number of things that you can do while controlling the block chain is actually really limited. You still can't spend other people's money. You can prevent people from spending money, but you can't make them spend money. You can double spend yourself, but if the bitcoin community was aware that someone was manipulating the block chain, they would be much more careful about accepting transactions from new wallets, and would reject all transactions from a wallet they knew was controlled by the double spender.
Furthermore, if you did take control of the block chain I personally would dump a few thousand into miners myself, to help regain control of the system. I'm sure that I'm not alone, and the act of bitcoin users simply 'fighting back' may be enough to minimize your control of the market.
And finally, as other people have stated, you can always change the hashing algorithm. Most people use 1 bitcoin client. In fact, this client once had an update that caused an error and forked the block chain and allowed at least one person to double spend $10,000. In the event of a major crisis, there would most be enough bitcoin users willing to fork the block chain that you could indeed get a new hashing algorithm designed to be incompatible with the attackers hardware. The choice is between that and watch your 'distributed' currency fall under the control of a tyrant.
Someone taking control of the mining process IS a risk, and there are some powerful things you can do with that (like mine 100% of all the new bitcoins, taking control of the supply, and double spending, and rejecting transactions by others), but it would probably take a lot more than $1.2 million dollars because people would fight back, and you are still at risk of the rest of the community forking away from your control. That said, you could still do terrible damage and the price would probably plunge, and you may be able to double spend millions of dollars before enough people noticed to start rejecting your transactions. (are there even millions of dollars worth of things you can buy? and would you have to worry about a government getting involved because you committed financial crimes?)
And even if you manage to maintain control, all that will happen is people will stop using bitcoin until you let up. It's much like a DDOS. It takes power (electricity) to maintain that much computation, and the longer you maintain control, the less bitcoin will be worth.
Edit: I want to add that the scariest attacks only happen at 50% control. At 40%, you can only double spend -sometimes-, and I don't think that you would be able to block transactions at all. Furthermore an organized network (and there is much debate about how organized bitcoin could get, after all it is designed to be distributed) could undo any double spending and you would be limited to slowing bitcoin down. At 20% market power, the probability of you achieving a double spend or undoing some transactions is very small.
I expected it to grow very fast. Bitfloor seemed reliable, and many people seemed to be trading on it. I thought it was sound. Even if I lost 100%, I expected the loss to come from my failure as a trader, not from my exchange's failure as a business.
If I do get my money back, I will probably try to join a different bitcoin exchange, though more carefully. I've been trying for almost a month(since btc was about $90 before the crash) and it's incredible how difficult it is to trade bitcoins.
Maybe I'll open my own exchange.
I'm frustrated that they have given so little information out, my recent transaction represents 100% of my disposable income. Perhaps part of the fault is mine, but I thought they were reputable and no warning was given. They are also no longer accepting deposits or acknowledging any in progress deposits.
Bitcoin's volatility is a weakness, but it's not an achilles heel. Bitcoin has many strengths that are completely unmatched by any other currency. People use it for these strengths, and people will continue to use it for these strengths regardless of how much it is worth. That's why bitcoin will not die until there is something to replace it.
Bitcoin can't be used to store value (due to volatility), but that doesn't mean that it can't be used as a medium of exchange. (USD -> Bitcoin -> Silk Road, and vice-versa)
Bitcoin has many fundamental uses as an exchange of value (note the vernacular) that is not done properly by anything else. It is the reason that markets like the Silk Road can exist. The "fundamental" flaw of bitcoin is that it is deflationary. This causes mass speculation, which causes instability.
It's instability means that it is not a good store of value. It is good for exchange of value under certain conditions (anonymous, distributed, trust required, cryptographic, etc.). Bitcoin is taking a hit right now because all of the speculators are cashing out (or panicking, or whatever). Most of the people who use bitcoin for it's fundamental strengths only hold on to bitcoin briefly. This is one of the (perhaps unintended) features of the commodity.
Bitcoin is not good for measuring value. You would never set a price in terms of bitcoin. You would set the price in terms of dollars or euros and then use a conversion to figure out what the price in bitcoins should be. This will probably always be the case for bitcoin transactions, because that's just how bitcoin is.
But as long as bitcoin does 'distributed, anonymous, and cryptographic' better than everybody else, it will be used for those strengths, and this will keep it alive. Bitcoin is not dead until there is something to replace it. A market crash does not count.
It just makes for some sad speculators.
So there is definitely room for this.
Having said that, I don't believe that it will go back up, most speculators will probably be ready to sell after today. It's also hard to say though, because it looks like the volume of bitcoins traded today are equal or less than other days. I can't say for sure, because Mt. Gox isn't loading properly and I'm looking at an unfamiliar set of graphs.
People keep talking about the bubble bursting. Most people don't realize that last time bitcoin flopped, it only lost 30-50% value initially, returning to a value that was still higher than just 2 months before the crash. Bitcoin spent 5 months in a steady decline, not 5 hours. Most early speculators made a profit, even if they couldn't sell until after the crash.
As much insanity as people are predicting, everything will probably be drawn out. If you have bitcoins and are nervous, now is a fine time to sell. If you think bitcoin will keep going up and you bought more than 30 days ago, you will probably be able to come out ahead even if you are wrong.
But you have to appreciate that most of Bitcoin is speculation. Bitcoin seems safe because it is inherently deflationary. That brings an unproportionate amount of speculators to the currency, and causes the deflationary properties to exaggerate. After enough time, the currency will become clearly overvalued. The free market will take care of that in a cyclic fashion.
As long as Bitcoin is used by people for it's anonymous and cryptographic properties, it will be subject to this hyperdeflation/crash cycle. The exiting bits don't last long and ultimately don't make the currency gain or lose terribly extraordinary amounts of value. After a crash, I'm sure bitcoin will still be worth at least $60, which is still fantastic if you bought back when it was less than $15.
But since the beginning of the year bitcoin has doubled nearly 3 times, and this past month has seen additional acceleration. Bitcoin has been in the news a but I don't see any legitamate reason for the dramatic spikes of the past few weeks... except for speculaiton.
I posted this because I think that today's extraordinary spike is preceeding a crash of the market. At some point, all of the serious speculators will have put all their money into the coin, and they will be looking to cash out. A huge spike like this would seem like an optimal time to cash out.
And if there aren't enough people to buy the coins, the market will plummet.
Bitcoin has been succesful recently because the value has continued to go up. When the price takes a hit, people will lost confidence, and non-speculators will also start to sell. I don't know how hard the initial hit will be, but the last time that Bitcoin started losing value, it spent almost 3 months declining.
I believe that the same thing will happen again, and bitcoin will (after the initial hit) decline for several months before starting to make its deflationary recovery.
But the smile on her face, especially in that last photo, is really something. And especially at $1125, the chance that she'll contribute more than that back to the global GPD some day is good.
And it might even be enough for me that she might live a normal life.
I then tried to quit again. I went 5 days, and then 4 days, and then gave up on the idea, resigning myself to immense sexual activity. Every month or so, I'll go on a complete rampage with as many as 10 orgasms a day for 2-3 days, rarely coming out of my room. Sometimes it even interferes with food.
My sexual tastes have grown increasingly complex, sometimes illegal, sometimes not outwardly sexual at all (example, the thought of loneliness in a girl). It has changed how I look at nearly everything, but I'm not ready to conclude that it has been for the worse.
I had sex for the first time this week. I didn't climax. My parter had no issues but I was completely uninterested, which is interesting because I had been looking forward (greatly) to the encounter for more than a week. But when it finally happened... complete disinterest. I did my best to think of porn and at least play along, but part of me felt that was more rude than just failing to climax so I sat back and let my partner enjoy her share. ED was no issue.
It's worth adding that I had never met the girl before, seen pics and talked via phone but never met in person. I had little (if any) emotional attraction to the girl, and for this reason specifically I'm not very worried. It just caught my attention because I would never have guessed that a 19yo boy would go through 40 minutes of sex with an attractive girl and not climax.
Since then I've been more motivated to quit, but I'm still not ready to conclude that porn has been a negative or bad experience. It has consistently given me a lot to think about, especially watching my interests and needs shift over the past few years. I've noticed a better control over my need for porn but it's only been a few days.
It still seems unclear what all the details are behind his action, but I find it deeply troubling that enough pressure exists to drive someone as impressive as this to commit suicide at the young age of 26.
When I take a few steps back and look at the bigger picture of the world, I see many people in positions of power who either wield their power for themselves, or with apathy, and only a few people in positions of power who attack the problems of the world with the primary intention of humanitarianism.
Reading about Aaron, I feel like he was one of those people who cared more about the rest of the world than anything else. And what really hurts is seeing someone like this, only 26 and with enormous potential, decide to take their own life instead of continue in the world with whatever circumstances.
I have yet to shed tears but I've come close several times. RIP.