Also, this trade war pushes the USA close to a war with China over Taiwan and maybe Panama Canal, which is exactly what you want as an authoritarian to stay on longer. Find an enemy and use emergency powers to maintain control.
387 karma · joined October 28, 2019
And I don't think anyone is calling themselves allies of the USA right now. The whole world is looking to decouple from the USA. Europe is completely over the USA, they can't rely on them for leadership, protection or for trade.
From a tech perspective, expect Europe to decouple from the USA from an economic and cultural perspective in the next decade. Smartest thing Europe can do is to create alternatives to US services, build its own defense industry and stop looking at the USA for any leadership.
Also, not sure what the whole 800v hype is about. I rent EVs for roadtrips and Tesla's are basically the fastest charging ones with current architecture, haven't had a need for 800v since at the cell level the charging speed is already maxed out.
Re: the Y, even though they won't sell because some hand gestures and behaviors, they did almost every complaint people have about the old model Y.
Zero sympathy for Americans that voted for this and the ones that stayed home.
I feel bad for the ones that voted Kamala and for the West.
Natural selection in this sim just happens by itself, there is a limited amount of food and only the best adapted ones survive. So the best performing neural networks duplicate themselves and create small variations of themselves. This part is not connected to the NEAT algorithm, I've just seen that NEAT performs particularly good vs more fixed-structure neural networks.
You get banned for sharing identities of DOGE people, but Musk can share the name and tax documents of a federal judge.
Hypocrite.
There are boycott’s afoot and I wouldn’t be surprised if canada and Europe will choose more Chinese and domestic in the future.
Basically, the US closing its borders will lead to a Chinese world leadership which is not good for the US either.
Over time this allows fish to develop basic behavior such as searching for food, navigation a maze, etc.
The only other 'useful' gene right now is around herbivore/carnivore digestion (0 to 1), which allows them to extract more energy from either meat or plant-food. Most of the time they actually develop specific behavior according to this gene.
I don't really code in what offspring need to do beyond having slight variations to both factors described above, it kind of evolves randomly into more complexity (neural net + behaviors).
Also importantly– I need to program an energy decay system and death if they run out. So basically: Energy source, energy decay and evolving neural nets that can give an organism the possibility to survive and evolve if they get more energy. And voila– Life emerges.
Working on plants now, and again simple rules: Neural nets in the plants to mimic evolution of complex biological systems that evolve from generation to generation. And a light-based energy source and light-based energy capture system (leaves). My current (preliminary) experiments show that the plants start to look like trees over time to maximize energy capturing compared to competing plants.
Looking to publish this once I have it a bit more refined.
I think we're quite far off if you want to model full organism complexity. But if you want to answer a research question you can model simpler versions today. Like this research team did around how vision evolves.
By the way– As of recently, we were able to model C Elegans (flatworm) in 3D with all neurons and neurotransmitters. It reacted to virtual stimuli just like a real worm (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-024-00738-w). So single-organisms is already possible. But the evolution of these entities in 3D will take us a bit more time is my guess:
Also I'm not a CS person, just an enthusiast.
Doesn't mean that it's not worth it for most. Some people just want to do science. Or startups.
Whether it's worth the investment depends on ones goals in life.
I spent some time at Harvard as an undergrad doing research there though, and it was the most intellectually stimulating environment I've ever been in. Maybe YC is similar, but it's a lot about money in those environments and most startups aren't that interesting either.
No goal to become a programmer– But I like to build programs.
Build a rather complex AI-ecosystem simulator with me as the director and GPT-4 now Claude 3.5 as the programmer.
Would never have been able to do this beforehand.
The competition is very obvious in societies with a lot of wealth disparity. In Europe there tends to be less disparity and less competition.
US, China, India, UK, etc, much more disparity so it’s much more important for kids to be ‘top of the field’.
And the last decades we’ve had a new unknown cause of colon cancer increase in young adults.
My money is on plastics, but will be hard to prove.
Beyond immediate increase in inequality, which I agree could be worth it in the long run if this was the only problem, we're playing a dangerous game.
The smartest and most capable species on the planet that dominates it for exactly this reason, is creating something even smarter and more capable than itself in the hope it'd help make its life easier.
Hmm.
So... Next year this tech will most likely be quite a bit cheaper.
There is no special sauce in our brain. And we know how much compute there is in our brain– So we can roughly estimate when we'll hit that with these 'LLMs'.
Language is important in a human brain development as well. Kids who grow up deaf grow up vastly less intelligent unless they learn sign language. Language allow us to process complex concepts that our brain can learn to solve, without having to be in those complex environments.
So in hindsight, it's easy to see why it took a language model to be able to solve general tasks and other types deep learning networks couldn't.
I don't really see any limits on these models.
I personally wouldn't be surprised if we start to see benchmarks around this type of cooperation and ability to orchestrate complex systems in the next few years or so.
Most benchmarks really focus on one problem, not on multiple real-time problems while orchestrating 3rd party actors who might or might not be able to succeed at certain tasks.
But I don't think anything is prohibiting these models from not being able to do that.
To give you an example– I've used it for legal work such as an EB2-NIW visa application. Saved me countless of hours. My next visa I'll try to do without a lawyer using just LLMs. I would never try this without having LLMs at my disposal.
As a hobby– And as someone with a scientific background I've been able to build an artificial ecosystem simulation from scratch without programming experience in Rust: https://www.youtube.com/@GenecraftSimulator
I recently moved from fish to plants and believe I've developed some new science at the intersection of CS and Evolutionary Biology that I'm looking to publish.
This tool is extremely useful. For now– You do require a human in the loop for coordination.
My guess is that these will be benchmarks that we see within a few years: How good an AI coordinate multiple other AIs to build, deploy and iterate something that functions in the real world. Basically manager AI.
Because they'll literally be able to solve every single one shot problem so we won't be able to create benchmarks anymore.
But that's also when these models will be able to build functioning companies in a few hours.
I'm starting to really see no limits on intelligence in these models.
This type of compute will be cheaper than Claude 3.5 within 2 years.
It's kinda nuts. Give these models tools to navigate and build on the internet and they'll be building companies and selling services.
Don’t forget about writers and designers losing jobs as well. If you’re not absolute top and don’t use AI, AI will replace you.