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Leary

3,362 karma · joined July 19, 2018

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Leary··on Sonnet 5.5
And Sonnet 5.5 is more expensive than Opus 5.5 to hit that score on terminal bench!
Leary··on Claude Fable 5
Uploaded my code base and it forced switched to Opus 4.8 after thinking for 5 minutes even though I prompted it to not work on cybersecurity related things. Amazing.
Leary··on ASML to invest $1.5B in Mistral at over $11B valuation
news from 2025
Leary··on Anthropic endorses California's AI safety bill, SB 53
“Large frontier developer”: a frontier developer that together with its affiliates collectively had annual gross revenues in excess of five hundred million dollars ($500,000,000) in the preceding calendar year.

So any large company training LLMs, no matter the capability, is considered a frontier developer?

Leary··on U.S. Emissions Rise 4.2%, China's Fall 2.7%
Except that does make sense because the new country would be the weighted average of the average CO2 contribution for both Americans and Nigerians.
Leary··on China is eating the world
Amazing analysis, except for the fact China was dirt poor before communism.
Leary··on China is eating the world
No way. I read Noah Smith (number 1 economist on substack) every week and he says one must measure China in per capita terms for all the good stuff: GDP (preferably nominal), and in aggregate terms for all the bad stuff (pollution, carbon dioxide emissions).

Also, it's logically impossible for China to be good. I have found a mathematical proof:

1: Democracy is good

2: China is not a democracy

Therefore, obviously China is not good.

Leary··on Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future
But how are you gonna foresee the total annihilation of the Chinese semi industry without Jordan the necromancer interpreting party documents for you?
Leary··on Historical Tech Tree
Does anyone know which technology on this tree has the most descendents?
Leary··on GPT-5: Key characteristics, pricing and system card
https://metr.github.io/autonomy-evals-guide/gpt-5-report/
Leary··on GPT-5: Key characteristics, pricing and system card
METR of only 2 hours and 15 minutes. Fast takeoff less likely.
Leary··on Open models by OpenAI
GPQA Diamond: gpt-oss-120b: 80.1%, Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507: 81.1%

Humanity’s Last Exam: gpt-oss-120b (tools): 19.0%, gpt-oss-120b (no tools): 14.9%, Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507: 18.2%

Leary··on A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth (2022)
Did it with https://sites.google.com/site/jiaxiongyao16/nighttime-lights...

USA (2013-2023 CAGR: 2.3%) 2014: 6.2% 2015: -5.3% 2016: -1.8% 2017: 15.2% 2018: -4.9% 2019: 4.5% 2020: -5.4% 2021: 6.7% 2022: 14.5% 2023: -3.6%

China (2013-2023 CAGR 7.9%) 2014: -1.7% 2015: -1.2% 2016: -5.1% 2017: 53.3% 2018: -1.0% 2019: 7.5% 2020: 6.5% 2021: 11.4% 2022: 4.2% 2023: 10.8%

Leary··on Seedance 1.0
0:10 into the video, that's light skinned to you?!
Leary··on OpenAI for Countries
Translation:

You provide the capital and the data, we'll co-own the data centers share the models until Trump and the US government decide to shut it off as a bargaining chip.

Leary··on Xiaomi MiMo Reasoning Model
They are not "English-first". Deepseek-R1, for example, reasons in Chinese when you ask it a question in Chinese.
Leary··on Amazon Submits Bid for TikTok with US Sale Deadline Nearing
Nah, ByteDance will sell if the US lets Nvidia sell them some B200s
Leary··on US appeals court rules AI generated art cannot be copyrighted
So OpenAI's ChatGPT output cannot be copyrighted and it's legal to distill it?
Leary··on Half the human beings alive today are descended from the Yamnaya: new research
I don't think they are claiming 40% of males today have y-haplogroups descended from the Yamnaya

r1b's population is only 190 million [1]

[1]https://www.razibkhan.com/p/the-haplogroup-is-dead-long-live...

Leary··on Why data on the economy doesn't match our feelings
Maybe because real estate prices are not captured by CPI, only rental prices. People are taking longer and longer to save up for a house[1].

https://www.crews.bank/blog/real-estate-prices-vs.-income

Leary··on How the United States could devastate China by quickly decoupling
The authors make a case that China's GDP is overestimated from past night time studies so I ran an analysis on which country produces the most nighttime lights.

110 RUS 926043522.5

136 USA 816841431.0

24 CHN 541388528.0

21 CAN 537446163.4

16 BRA 259637239.0

62 IND 229451980.0

4 AUS 173842078.0

63 IRN 152673182.8

84 MEX 116989787.0

3 ARG 110292451.1

Russia is the real secret superpower?

Leary··on Sam Bankman-Fried thrown into solitary over Tucker Carlson interview: report
On an EV basis, the worst thing SBF did was probably funding Anthropic and accelerating the demise of humanity.
Leary··on QwQ-32B: Embracing the Power of Reinforcement Learning
One of the people on the Qwen team tweeted this instruction.
Leary··on QwQ-32B: Embracing the Power of Reinforcement Learning
To test: https://chat.qwen.ai/ and select Qwen2.5-plus, then toggle QWQ.
Leary··on GPT-4.5: "Not a frontier model"?
How does this compare with Grok 3's parameter count? I know Grok 3 was trained on a larger cluster (100k-200k) but GPT 4.5 used distributed training.
Leary··on China tells its AI leaders to avoid U.S. travel over security concerns
As recent as 2017.

"Earlier this year, I noticed something in China that really surprised me. I realized I felt more comfortable discussing controversial ideas in Beijing than in San Francisco. I didn’t feel completely comfortable—this was China, after all—just more comfortable than at home."

https://blog.samaltman.com/e-pur-si-muove

He also mentions giving a talk for YC in China in 2018:

https://blog.samaltman.com/idea-generation

Leary··on TSMC faces tough choices amid rumors for Intel foundry collaboration
This is weak sauce. America should limit chips to other countries and then make Taiwan sell them to the US with the 100% tariffs.

Oh wait, that's what the AI diffusion rules do.

Leary··on The Power of Poetry: Why Everyone Should Write
Enjoy this poem:

I dwell in Possibility – (466)

By Emily Dickinson

I dwell in Possibility –

A fairer House than Prose –

More numerous of Windows –

Superior – for Doors –

Of Chambers as the Cedars –

Impregnable of eye –

And for an everlasting Roof

The Gambrels of the Sky –

Of Visitors – the fairest –

For Occupation – This –

The spreading wide my narrow Hands

To gather Paradise –

Leary··on On DeepSeek and export controls
Dario certainly had no qualms about working with authoritarian regimes when he worked for Baidu!

Also, if the US seeks a permanent advantage over China by 2027 with self-replicating AI, so much so that it can dictate whatever terms militarily. Wouldn't that just force China to send a few cruise missiles to TSMC before that happen?

Leary··on OpenAI Furious DeepSeek Might Have Stolen All the Data OpenAI Stole from Us
Does this mean when you use OpenAI as an enterprise customer, they can see exactly the queries and answers? So much for privacy!
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