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LatteLazy

5,828 karma · joined September 16, 2019

Started in tech, then went to the business end for the money, now I regret it...
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LatteLazy··on Britain's spies-for-hire are running wild
The UK has only very limited restrictions on illegally gathered evidence. Poison Tree doctorine is not a thing here. So yes.
LatteLazy··on What will become of the CIA?
Isn't the point of the previous examples that every organisation ultimately works for its own survival/growth?

The cia was basically pointless when the ussr fell (I'm not sure I agree but that's the logic). It needed a reason to exist and Al Qaeda provided that. When that wore thin, it manufactured its own reason in Iraq, a country that had no wdm and was no threat. And so on.

I'm not saying I agree but that is the logic I believe

LatteLazy··on What will become of the CIA?
The press release seems to conflat cyber attacks (of which there were none) with election influence (I think interference would be another phrase for the same thing?). But those are different no?

"Russia tried to get people to vote for candidate X" can be true even when "Russia tried to stop people voting by breaking machines" isn't.

LatteLazy··on Most people who buy games on Steam never play them
Some games I play for an hour but never return to.

Some games I have 1000s of hours on.

Whether a given game will be the former or the latter is hard to tell.

Given these facts it makes sense to buy a lot of games knowing I will only play a few regularly.

LatteLazy··on Executed Chinese prisoners likely used in UK exhibition (2021)
The problem is there is no evidence of this. Just claims based on other people who don't know but claim it and so on all the way down...
LatteLazy··on US-backed Israeli company's spyware used to target European journalists
I feel like anyone serious about doing actual journalism needs to start with a decent Cyber Security 101 course. Does anyone know of one?
LatteLazy··on Musk-Trump dispute includes threats to SpaceX contracts
What does a democracy do when people willingly and knowingly vote for fascism? “Vote for me and you’ll never have to vote again” won…
LatteLazy··on Trump's gamble puts the dollar at risk as the reserve currency
Isn’t destroying the dollars reserve currency status key to his stated goals? I thought that as long as dollars are the reserve currency, people will want them, and trade goods and services for them just for the privilege of holding them.

So the US will never get manufacturing jobs back as every other country effectively insists on subsidising exports to the us to get the dollars they need for their reserves?

I am not commenting on whether this is true or a good idea etc. but ending the usd as a reserve currency is a key objective, not a risk that might occur unintended no?

LatteLazy··on Britain's police are restricting speech in worrying ways
I feel like this article makes a very poor argument for what should be an easy win.

I think the uk needs much more freedom of speech, both at a legal level and culturally (I am a Brit)

But the articles arguments are weak:

Someone calling for violent disorder during a riot probably should face prosecution. The fact the US constitution might protect such speech is irrelevant.

Similarly you can make a good argument that incitement of racial (religious etc) hatred should not be protected either. If you want to critique Islam or Israel go for it. But calling all Muslims or Jews or all women or gays or whatever other group names is likely to cause arguments and disturb the peace.

The article also focuses way too much on the USAs approach. This seems to me to have failed: on one hand the us is knee deep in conspiracy theories and far right rhetoric, and on the other people self censor endlessly (or face the consequences on an arbitrary and capricious basis).

If you’re going to argue for free speech, do it based on the inherent dangers of letting any one group decide what is banned, do it on the necessity of having clear quick communication of social changes and do it on the basis of the fastest correction of error. Not “because someone wrote down congress shall pass no law” and then a long list of judge’s arbitrarily decided what that did or didn’t protect over the next 200 years.

LatteLazy··on Big banks explore venturing into crypto world together with joint stablecoin
This reminds me of the way Scottish banks used to issue their own notes independently (they still issue them now but are required to have Bank of England notes of equivalent value in storage)

They were not legally currency (or legal tender) but acted as such. It if a bank was viewed to be in trouble its notes would start trading at a discount.

Effectively it was a free market for currency issuance. Which I guess this would be too?

LatteLazy··on Big banks explore venturing into crypto world together with joint stablecoin
I don’t think that’s true in this case. I would assume the bank issuing the coin has to know the identity of the people they sell it to. But once those people sell it on, it’s not their problem any more. Sure they could get an order to seize those coins (/wallet) and would have to obey. But I don’t think they’d be required to kyc everyone on the network. Just their immediate counterparties…
LatteLazy··on Uber to introduce fixed-route shuttles in major US cities
Well… it’s operated by a company called Thames Clipper

Uber just bought the naming rights

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Clippers

LatteLazy··on Trump announces 100% tariffs on movies ‘produced in foreign lands’
A lot of films are produced in the uk, so this should mean no trade deal. It won’t of course but there you are…
LatteLazy··on U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter
Yeah, but that doesn’t matter here: we already counted the 10 when they bought them. So when we subtract the 10 because they’re imports that doesn’t mean importing a lot will lead to a net negative.

If a company 10x their imports to get ahead, we’d count the 100 worth of buying, and then subtract 100 because that was all imports. You still get zero effect on gdp from the import itself. Which is correct.

The point of the subtraction is to make imports zero impact, zero impact when big, zero impact when small.

LatteLazy··on U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter
One way of counting gdp is to count everything sold and then subtract imports. This is because imports are inherently included in everything sold (if I buy a widget for 10usd from abroad and use it to make an 11usd product, that’s 1usd of gdp, not 11).

So when imports are subtracted that doesn’t mean gdp is “short” imports. It means it isn’t affected either way by imports.

LatteLazy··on Young people aren't as happy as they used to be [Global Flourishing Study]
Society used to be run for everyone. Now it’s run for the old at the expense of the young. That’s true of politics, economics, media, basically everything.
LatteLazy··on Police algorithm said Lina was at 'medium' risk. Then she was killed
Isn’t this how risk works: you assess 1000 people to be at medium risk, 1 dies. Because medium risk means 1/1000? Kind of like lottery tickets all being a low chance of winning the jackpot, yet someone one usually does…

I don’t mean to talk down one travesty. But this is just stats meeting reality/human (mis)understanding of stats.

LatteLazy··on America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back
I prefer the alternative explain: this is just trump bringing in a national sales tax without having to go through the senate or eat the unpopularity.

There seems to be no actual plan to actually bring back manufacturing (this would require different tariffs, loans, tax accounting rules, etc). And there seems to be no targeting of china (everywhere is being tariffed, allies and enemies, strategic suppliers and places with no trade with the USA etc)

LatteLazy··on A Secretive Gambler Called 'The Joker' Took Down the Texas Lottery
I also could not work this out.

I think there are a bewildering number of games on the Texas lottery [1] but none seem to give the odds listed. But even more confusingly the Texas lottery itself lists the chance of a jackpot as 1 in 25.8mil [2]. So I’m not sure what we’re missing?!

The 1:26mil number must be about correct as google says the whole lottery grosses about 1.2bn a year. So 100m a month. So about 12.5mil tickets sold per draw if they are twice weekly. So a roughly 50% chance of a jackpot. If it were as our numbers show it would take about 16 years for a jackpot to occur even if that were the only game people played.

1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Lottery

2: https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Documents/...

LatteLazy··on Warren Buffett: growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us [pdf]
Generally they are just goods.

It’s much easier to measure physical goods crossing customs. It’s very difficult to measure whether that guy in your restaurant was a tourist or not. And that’s the simple case believe it or not…

This is one of the reasons service oriented economies seem to run huge deficits…

LatteLazy··on A university president makes a case against cowardice
> certain injustices are load-bearing

This is an excellent way of explaining why some injustices are ignored and others decried. Thank you

LatteLazy··on What Killed Innovation?
* Bribe regulators and lawmakers to make it difficult for small players to enter the market or even exist
LatteLazy··on London's Heathrow Airport announces complete shutdown due to power outage
The problem is they’re all maxed out. So if one closes unexpectedly the others can’t just pick up the slack because they have no room…
LatteLazy··on Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
I had no idea they went that far back? Good knowledge!
LatteLazy··on Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
Goldman and others got in trouble for selling access to the supposedly secret orders in their dark pools back in the day.

They were fined 800k I think?

I believe dark pools started growing post flashboys when people realising what hft meant and wanted an escape (see comment below). But as they got big they became a target in and of themselves (ecology in action I guess).

I worked in algo trading at the time (not hft, but anti hft)

LatteLazy··on Why do transit agencies keep falling for the hydrogen bus myth?
People keep falling for the myth that this can be solved at a personal level or even national level.

People keep falling for the myth that we are making progress (we’re not).

Hydrogen powered busses are just a specific case of a much much larger communication/coordination issue…

LatteLazy··on Stoicism's Appeal to the Rich and Powerful (2019)
A lot of people don’t know that guilt is an emotion and like all emotions needs to be managed. They feel it, assume it’s appropriate and then seek a cause that fits.

Sorry if this sounds dismissive, it’s not meant to be. But I think it is the cold hard reason for a lot of feeling/stress among people who have otherwise nice lives with no explicit moral failings…

LatteLazy··on Stoicism's appeal to the rich and powerful (2019)
Stoicism has 2 main advantages over other philosophies:

* it’s practical. It involves doing things that work and will improve you life, make it clearer what you want and make it easier to do things and generally not waste your time or money

* it’s true in a trial and error, scientific sense. Stoicism concentrates on what works and is applicable. Beleifs come from life experience. Most other philosophies START with arbitrary beliefs and then expect you to live according to them whether they work or not.

LatteLazy··on Stoicism's appeal to the rich and powerful (2019)
Stoicism does not claim that at all. Not sure what the author means…
LatteLazy··on Wall Street stocks tumble as investors fret over US economic slowdown
Be careful taking people seriously when they claim to have voted a given way for a given reason; especially a specific reason. They’re usually false claims.
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