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Isn’t this how risk works: you assess 1000 people to be at medium risk, 1 dies. Because medium risk means 1/1000? Kind of like lottery tickets all being a low chance of winning the jackpot, yet someone one usually does…

I don’t mean to talk down one travesty. But this is just stats meeting reality/human (mis)understanding of stats.

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Yes, it’s like people complaining that there was a 90% chance of rain and then it didn’t rain.

Of course in reality you either get killed by your partner or you don’t, every judgement except „negligible“ and „extreme risk“ will be wrong if you need absolute certainty. And if you want to have a false negative rate of literally 0, you need to return „extreme risk“ for every single case.

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