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KingMachiavelli

3,529 karma · joined June 17, 2015

anon @ sansorgan.es
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KingMachiavelli··on 'Algebra for none' fails in San Francisco
I think these one size fits all policies almost never work as I think many here will agree.

But I also think the public school system has many one size fits all policies that no one questions.

Many people advocate for smaller class sizes so teachers can spend more time with each student, but this is very expensive so if tends to come with compromises.

I did very well in HS including advanced math but class size had nothing to do with it. I did well because I ignored the instructor and just did homework and studied in every class; often to the annoyance of the instructor.

In college this effect was even worse since class size is a key metric for US News college rankings work. Small class sizes mean college costs more. If college costs even $10 more per class-hour then you loose about an hour of time to study (per hour of class/instruction!) if you're working to afford college.

But weed-out classes are often taught via large lectures while easier electives tend to be smaller class sizes so it'd be difficult to observe this in metrics.

If you A/B tested large very small class sizes would you see an improvement? Probably, but you would never see the effects for an individual student. I keep wondering why offering different size classes isn't the solution? I think a lot of students would prefer the hands off approach of large classes while some really need smaller class sizes.

KingMachiavelli··on American IQ scores have rapidly dropped, proving the 'Reverse Flynn effect'
> RW is a series of stale reddit dunks for immature and ideologically driven teenagers.

Yea it's certainly a bit immature and yea it doesn't have the ruthless update frequency Wikipedia has but it's almost never plain wrong. I think most reasonable people would agree Elon tweets too much and it often gets him in trouble.

KingMachiavelli··on U.S. proposes 56% vehicle emissions cut by 2032, requiring big EV jump
How does PG&E have the authority to regulate the instalation of EV charging? Do you mean they won't install a higher amp service panel like 200A instead of 150A?

If that's the case, it's not that crazy or unusual. While you used to be able to pay to upgrade your service panel, if everyone on the same block or segment of the grid all wants the higher service panel then it will require upgrades to the existing electrical lines and sub stations.

It makes a lot of sense to limit installing larger service panels to customers who will actual use it rather than haphazardly over provision the grid. But you can still easily charge an EV at 50A on a standard 150A or even 100A panel.

KingMachiavelli··on American IQ scores have rapidly dropped, proving the 'Reverse Flynn effect'
Really? I've checked a range of topics and the Rational Wiki seemed spot on. Do you know of any topics it's completely wrong or unfair on?

It of course takes side on some issues like Atheism, Religion but nothing unexpected for a site to be unapologetically rational/empirical.

KingMachiavelli··on I fixed a parasitic drain on my car in 408 days
I've never understood why cars don't just cut power before the battery is too low to start. If that's too complicated then just have an option to cut all power after X hours of non-running time.

I bet the old popular theft of car radio is a root cause; cars needed to stay running to keep the alarm active and power the radio continuously so it wouldn't require the unlock code every time you start the vehicle.

It's actually pretty impressive how much power even a 200mA draw at 12V is over a few days; it's about 58 Watt-hours or 3.5 iPhone batteries per day.

KingMachiavelli··on Ask Wirecutter: Can you recommend a not-smart TV for me?
Because 8 bit hardware was realtime? It's quite difficult to implement everything we expect likely nowadays without multiprocessing... realtime Linux exists but it's not a panacea

Honestly to compete with mass market TVs, it's going to be difficult to avoid have more- not less "bloat". Built-in Android would be a great selling point (saves you $200 on a NVidia Shield as long as it doesn't track you or lock down features). Built-in AI upscaling is a good selling point.

I would also think if you have a OLED or edge/direct LED backlight LCD then you also need to run much more complicated pixel/zone brightness algorithms....

There's probable more memory allocated per frame on a modern 4K TV than an 8-bit computer had in total.

KingMachiavelli··on Tell HN: iOS lets carriers add WiFi networks that you can’t stop from joining
I will say GrapheneOS is much more usable than normal custom Android ROMs. Maybe this has changed but IME even Lineage based ROMs, official or otherisez don't have automatic updates the same way stock does.

But GrapheneOS and a few similar projects actual have fully automatic updates, for every Android security update and major versions.

Once installed which is very easy as long as your are starting fresh, GrapheneOS requires no effort to maintain. F-droid or even the Google Play Store works just fine once configured. The only apps that don't work are major banking apps and snapchat so not a big deal.

If you have family/friends that use smartphones but don't really use "Apps" then GrapheneOS is perfectly fine.

KingMachiavelli··on Llama.cpp 30B runs with only 6GB of RAM now
I think those specific Alpaca models are all in safetensor now and there isn't simple converter to ggml.
KingMachiavelli··on Swiss Are on the Hook for $13,500 Each on Credit Suisse Bailout
It's not Stripe or Visa "going poof" that would be an issue it would the underlying banks they use that add risk. Stripe/Visa are not FTX. Payment processors don't use in-flight transactions to pay liabilities (salaries, rent, etc.). They also don't (as far as I'm aware) convert that cash into other assets like bonds.

However, the money may be stored in a money market account i.e short term bonds or even if it's a more normal savings account the bank itself depends on fractional lending and bonds.

I'm be very surprised if any major payment processor hasn't vetted the institutions that hold transaction funds. That said some payroll companies were hit by SVB's collapse but more so on not being able to accept checks than loosing already received funds.

KingMachiavelli··on How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
> because their assets are fine (just inconveniently structured) If assets are so inconveniently structured that the bank fails, then the assets are not fine. A bond that pays 0.01% that never matures has an infinite value over infinite time. So while the FDIC/gov can solve the liquidity issue by replacing a $100 face value bond with $100 cash but that's still a net transfer of actual value from the FDIC i.e other banks.

As far as I know, regulatory requirements require/encourage holding good bonds but if the FDIC is going to start treating gov/muni bonds of any maturity length as good as cash, then there's less reason to hedge against interest rate risk.

KingMachiavelli··on Arch Linux Btrfs with hibernation in a swapfile
ZRAM is amazing for cloud VMs which typically have strict disk IOPS limits which means any significant swap usage is going to destroy IO performance or even lock the system. ZRAM w/o swap completely prevents this IO condition and is much faster than disk swap anyway.
KingMachiavelli··on There Were Half As Many Affordable Homes For Sale In 2022 As There Were In 2021
IRC Section 1031 lets you transfer the cost basis as long as you reinvest in real estate and inherited assets get stepped up cost basis. As long as you stay invested in real estate (and the tax laws don't change), you could get an entire lifetime of appreciation tax free all while having positive cash flow.
KingMachiavelli··on There Were Half As Many Affordable Homes For Sale In 2022 As There Were In 2021
That's just not the case even though the net cash flow makes it seem like landlords are often just breaking even.

If a tenants rent only covered the the monthly mortgage, that's still a 5.5% ROI assuming 20% down, 30 year mortgage. Accounting for interest rates, then the ROI is 5.5-(R*0.8)% returns.

But rents go up yearly to match market rents so the actual returns are closer to 15-22% (though it tends to scale poorly which is why REITs pay so little IMO). Even after accounting for loan interest & costs, real estate is a very attractive 8%-15% investment with very favorable tax incentives. E.g. gains gan be deferred as long as they are invested in other real estate, positive cash flow is typically tax free due to depreciation of property - despite it's market value going up!.

KingMachiavelli··on How they filmed The Last of Us arcade scene
The real question is why do you even need a license? I thought it was well established that you can show copyrighted images/text and trademarked images/text in context - i.e you can show beer and signage of real companies that exist in real life.

I really don't understand the value in our currently level of IP law... like you said it often costs more paying lawyers to review contracts than the actual contract is worth.

KingMachiavelli··on Effective altruism has a sexual harassment problem, women say
I'll say the EA and rationalist community varies a great deal from location to location. Where I am the vast majority use drugs at a lower rate than the general population. There's of course some outliers that are into psychedelics but it's still a very distinct subgroup. Where I am the majority of EA/rationalists are more public policy and human focused and less concerned about AI/x-risk and way more skeptical of cryptocurrency.
KingMachiavelli··on AWS Purity Test
Am I the only one that likes the AWS console interface UI? My only complaint is that some features/products don't really have a UI or require you to manually create the internal IAM role before you can use it.

IMO it's a better UI than O365/Azure and I don't have much experience with Gcloud to say much but they seem about equal but still leaning towards AWS as the best UI of the top 3 cloud providers.

KingMachiavelli··on Poll: Do you use anti-virus software on desktop Linux?
The big issue I had with ClamAV is that the entire virus definitions database has to be kept in memory which is significant on VMs with only 1 or 2GB of memory. Maybe there's away to limit the definitions to only Linux malware since IIRC the majority of the ClamAV database are for Windows viruses/malware.
KingMachiavelli··on There’s no such thing as affordable housing
Then rents would increase? It's a supply side limited market so rents would just increase in lock step with wage increases.

Wealth redistribution could work but of would have to be extreme to the point of curbing demand due to no one having excess income.

KingMachiavelli··on Tech mogul Bryan Johnson, 45, spends $2Myr to achieve 18-year-old body
The most important measurement will be how these effects persist over time. Will the ageing actually slow or will it stay a constant number of years? It may take 5-10 years to see if the biomarkers suddenly catch up to his chronological age.

That said it's very impressive and very useful to have so much documentation of his regime.

KingMachiavelli··on Wolfram Alpha and ChatGPT
It's saves space in the context window. ChatGPT has a large template that question go into that is (largely) what enforces the morality stuff.

You still want the model to have the training on morality since users will want responses based on different systems of ethics.

KingMachiavelli··on Ask HN: What sub $200 product improved your 2022
A Moto M2 audio interface. Having a dedicated volume for my microphone is very useful and it has independent headphone and speaker outputs. I has great out of the box Linux support

Most people who own a dedicated DAC would probably be just fine using this IMO.

My automatic cat feeder will likely be the most useful of 2023.

KingMachiavelli··on Even the FBI says you should use an ad blocker
I always tell people the best antimalware is a good adblocker. It's a requirement I make for company machines as well (not really enforced but I wish I could).
KingMachiavelli··on The cost of being poor: Why it costs so much to be poor in America
I completely agree. It's just we are already at the point of it being too big to fail - you can just look at the housing market during COVID compared to 2008 to see that we've doubled down on housing as a speculative asset.
KingMachiavelli··on The cost of being poor: Why it costs so much to be poor in America
For better or worse, real estate is one of the earliest investment opportunities available for the most Americans. The ROI is easy to understand and capital is much easier to access compared to VC, bespoke business loans, etc. The industry is large and competitive, not investing or participating in the market isn't going to actually change housing affordability. Almost everyone except the poor/working class is invested in real estate directly or indirectly.

Most importantly, only residents vote in local elections and it's local policy that has the largest impact on housing supply and renter protections. Market's are quick to react to policy changes but policy has to actually change - advocating for individual actors to behave against the market is, on average, not going to actually help the people you aim to help... instead other actors (and perhaps actors biased to even more amoral decision making) will take advantage.

KingMachiavelli··on Tailnet Lock
Wow, I was advocating for switching to Tailscale (from just manual SSH key management) and was asked if we could do pretty much exactly this. Great to see such quick progress.
KingMachiavelli··on The five-year engineering feat Germany pulled off in months
First point, things should first be regulated by actual laws - not random complaints voiced after said action is taking place. If fracking is legal, it's legal. If it isn't then it isn't.

Second it's very simple. For any kind of property right people care about, allow it to be bought and sold. In most places, the property owner owns the air space up to a certain height. This should mean that "views" are irrelevant since they were never owned.

If a place is so wealthy that they are more concerned about aesthetics over functional improvements; energy from fracking, housing for workers, etc. then let them buy them but the rights to compensate everyone else.

KingMachiavelli··on Judge finds no rights violations in FBI seizure Beverly Hills safe-deposit boxes
This seems very strange so maybe the article is leaving something out but if a warrant for X but not Y can still lead to confiscating Y, then what actually limits the power of warrants?

> In their warrant request, the FBI and U.S. attorney’s office asked U.S. Magistrate Judge Steve Kim for permission to seize the store’s racks of safe-deposit boxes for forfeiture, but “not their contents.”

> The warrant request omitted a central part of the FBI’s plan: permanent confiscation of everything inside any box containing at least $5,000 in cash or goods, a senior FBI agent recently testified.

Is the crucial detail that the cash/goods lack any protection under the law? If there was a written and notarized murder confession in a box would that be permissible in court? I thought anything taken/found outside the scope of the warrant would be impermissible. Is the cash now impermissible for prosecuting actual crimes? (i.e. FBI can just keep it and make the owner sue for its return).

KingMachiavelli··on South Dakota first to ban TikTok on state-owned devices
The report leaves out a crucial detail; the total number of STEM degrees increased significantly. Doing some backwards math, the total number of STEM degrees increased by 108% (x2.08) between 1988 to 2016. The US population only increased ~35% in the same period. Even if we assume the increase in the college age population was a bit higher (accounting for birth rate decline), the overall trend is growth in STEM degrees by both native and foreign students.

Given how much population and economic growth the main sources of foreign exchange students had during the same period, what we see is expected unless we actively tried to limit foreign exchange students. Native students aren't being replaced, they are still there.

We don't depend on visas to 'sustain' our economy. We use immigration to keep the massive comparative advantage we have had for the last ~80 years (since WW2). It's classic brain drain and the US has been on the winning side for most of recent history.

KingMachiavelli··on Americans are choosing to be alone, but we should reverse that
Being alone can be bad even if it doesn't cause stress. Being around friends and building relationships is it's own goal and reward.

Switching from a career you've invested years into isn't a great solution. Working in a people facing job won't solve the need for long term relationships and I'd say most coworkers are often not interested (if they are even in remotely the same age/interest group at all).

KingMachiavelli··on Accidental Google Pixel Lock Screen Bypass
I think I triggered this a few times; I use a alarm clock that's dismissed via math equation which I frequently get mixed up with the lock screen when waking up. I have GrapheneOS set to auto-reboot every 8 hours so then there's also the SIM unlock screen. In the state of just waking up it's easy to PUK lock the SIM. I guess I just assumed the "Pixel is starting" message was some unrelated bug and just manually restarted. I think you can still continue to a normal boot if you manually lock or wait for the lock screen PIN timeout to expire.
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