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JumpCrisscross

191,130 karma · joined May 31, 2011

Ski. Fly. Growth equity VC.
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JumpCrisscross··on The great crime decline is happening all across the country
That's a fair one. I'll note that there is a fair amount of property crime in Thailand, though those do seem to prey on tourists more than locals.
JumpCrisscross··on Was silent reading unusual during Augustine's time?
> why didn't China, which invented printing press earlier, didn't fare better?

Moveable type was invented in the 11th century [1]. Kublai Khan moved in in the 13th. Then the Mings spent a couple centuries being autocratic menaces, Qianlong went on a pogrom of China's scholars and Europe caught up.

By the 13th century, China–uniquely–had both moveable-type presses and joint-stock companies. A combination of bad luck (the Mongols) and a tendency towards political shitshows squandered that lead.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_printing_in_East_As...

JumpCrisscross··on Musk, the Movie
> An insight into what, if any, represents the real person, and in what contexts Musk presents a persona, and why?

I don't think we can have the Ken Burns series until Musk is dead. He's remade himself too fully since Covid, and that means we can't really predict what the man today will do based on what he was before.

JumpCrisscross··on The great crime decline is happening all across the country
> your chances of falling victim to random crime is basically zero, so they feel extremely safe in spite of having many crime rates comparable to places that feel extremely unsafe

Where are you thinking of? What I've seen, more commonly, is societies with lots of crime having ways for the wealthy to insulate themselves for it and then, acting against a background that has normalised high crime, feeling very safe. Versus societies where everyone is more mixed together where folks are constantly paranoid about vanishingly-infrequent crimes.

JumpCrisscross··on Musk, the Movie
> We've yet to see if it's false

Sure. Which is why it's nonsense to prematurely conclude that "of course it's a 'hit piece'."

JumpCrisscross··on Musk, the Movie
> I don't think Musk is "concerned"

Unpetty men aren’t constantly on social media.

JumpCrisscross··on SpaceX – Starship Flight 14
Hand that feeds you yada yada.
JumpCrisscross··on Musk, the Movie
> that you think "hit piece" means "illigitimate?

Yes, "presenting false or biased information in a way that appears objective and truthful" is an essential part of being a hit piece [1].

[1] https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/hit_piece

JumpCrisscross··on The Mars Delusion
> weinersmith's offered up a bunch of reasons why the eponymous city would never be possible

That wasn’t my read. They said there is scientific and engineering work to be done before we attempt colonisation. Work done more cheaply in LEO and on the Moon.

One that stood out is the lack of low-gravity trauma medicine. Another was the lack of an in-space toilet. (Since developed!)

That doesn’t mean we can’t do manned missions or even establish a base in the meantime. But it won’t be a colony. It will be a research outpost whose greatest ambition might be to resemble the ones we have in Antarctica.

JumpCrisscross··on Owed a billion dollars in Nvidia stock
Or, find one of the many interest groups who have a non-economic reason to hate NVIDIA.

What OP has here is a license to go on a fishing expedition through NVIDIA.

JumpCrisscross··on The great crime decline is happening all across the country
> A tribe may decide to wage war upon neighbors

Lots of the deaths appear to be separate from war [1]. We have lots of evidence of violent crime in non-state socieities [2].

Where you might have a point is in the reduction of anonymous property crime. But that's just because small societies don't tend to have privacy. The property crime may still happen, it will just be resolved comunally or bilaterally using violence.

[1] https://historyandarchaeologyonline.com/bog-people-criminals...

[2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279610323_Violence_...

JumpCrisscross··on The Great Crime Decline Is Happening All Across the Country
Actually curious for someone to run the numbers on this.
JumpCrisscross··on The great crime decline is happening all across the country
> In a tight-knit (below Dunbar's number) society, crime is largely non-existent by our standards, because the tribe and the individual are coextensive

Source? Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature had lots of issues. But its core observation that one’s homicide hazard rate has almost monotonically fallen across human history would imply that small, ancient group were way more violent than our modern societies are.

JumpCrisscross··on The great crime decline is happening all across the country
You’re arguing people aren’t reporting homicides because they don’t think they will be prosecuted?
JumpCrisscross··on The great crime decline is happening all across the country
What’s wrong with the lead hypothesis? It explains about 4 to 15% of the effect since 1990 [1].

[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10393136/

JumpCrisscross··on Every Household in This Rural Town Receives $10k If a Data Center Gets Built
An annual recurring payment may honestly be the way to do it.
JumpCrisscross··on Hitachi to double US production of small and medium-sized power transformers
> Things never really recovered from covid. The AI buildout certainly hasn't helped

“Lead times, or the time taken between an initial order and its delivery, for some high-voltage transformers have increased to multiple years from around a year in 2020 and 2021’ [1].

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-companies-s...

JumpCrisscross··on When did Google get so weird?
Every complaint about Google is evidence of someone who still uses Google.
JumpCrisscross··on Lunar Terminator Paradox
It’s also transient. In a few million years, the Moon will have drifted far enough away that it cannot fully eclipse the sun. Long ago, the Moon was so close you wouldn’t have been able to clearly see the Sun’s corona during a total eclipse.
JumpCrisscross··on Lunar Terminator Paradox
Idk, one could come up with a hypothesis that eclipses provide the first tangible validation of a system of mathematics.
JumpCrisscross··on When did Google get so weird?
> isn't that not "most", out of even Americans?

Yes. Edited for clarity.

The only American demo that is majority lonely is Gen Z (two thirds).

JumpCrisscross··on Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe
Huh. Double what I thought. Thanks. I’d still say only the 37% counts for being crazy.
JumpCrisscross··on When did Google get so weird?
> the isolation I see in the United States

Travel alone in America and the frequency with which strangers will engage you in conversation reveals its diversity. New York and Atlanta are, today, exceptionally friendly places. (Random sample: I was in New York yesterday and am in Atlanta to-day.)

Most of the South is, too, as well as a surprising majority of rural America. (Boston and Seattle are, in my experience, the worst.)

JumpCrisscross··on When did Google get so weird?
> it's definitely not "most"

EDIT: Correct.

About a fifth of Americans report having zero friends; another fifth report feeling lonely sometimes [1].

[1] https://www.theglobalstatistics.com/us-loneliness-statistics...

JumpCrisscross··on ASML says it sold 'absolutely nothing' in Europe in 2026
This may be a better way to slice it. If you’re in New York, regardless of income, you have a higher standard of living than someone comparable in the EU. If you’re in Missouri, a median European lives a better life than you do.
JumpCrisscross··on ASML says it sold 'absolutely nothing' in Europe in 2026
> one could say the same about your own comment but just swap the placement of the words Europe and American

Maybe. I have citizenship in Switzerland and America. I aim politically active in both. That doesn’t give me authority—but it does afford me perspective.

And no. Europe is poorer than America. Comparable measures show the effect one would expect.

> unless someone pulls up actual stats on quality of life

These exist. Individual numbers slope as one would expect.

If you’re poor, Europe is better. If you’re middle class, it’s debatably, but probably Europe. If you’re rich, by which I mean you make a few hundred thousand a year or more, America. Obviously.

JumpCrisscross··on ASML says it sold 'absolutely nothing' in Europe in 2026
I’m increasingly convinced this is a myth Europe has told itself to get comfortable with American subjugation.
JumpCrisscross··on Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe
> with the rhetoric I see espoused about "don't go to college" by most really rich people

The two categories of people I know who say this are elite-college graduates and parents of kids who crashed out of their standardized tests.

> or to do online school for 3 hours a day, have mom, dad, and grandma lecture on our specialties

We’ve tried this for decades. What are the data?

JumpCrisscross··on Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe
> More than half of the USA believes the Earth is less than 10k years old

Source?

I thought it was around that magic 20% [1] figure for which you can find support in America for almost any idiocy.

[1] https://ncse.ngo/americans-scientific-knowledge-and-beliefs-...

JumpCrisscross··on Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe
Is there a good science fiction story where humanity discovers it’s unalterably getting dumber? As in within a fixed number of generations tool use will cease?
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