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Joel_Mckay

1,753 karma · joined May 12, 2022

"A Specialist knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing."

"A Generalist knows less and less about more and more until he knows absolutely nothing about everything."

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Joel_Mckay··on OpenAI annualised revenues $20B less than previously signalled
They don't need help, as most firms with that much red on the books shouldn't be allowed to float an IPO based on fictional future growth forecasts.

IMHO, the Bears will be proven right on this one sooner or later. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Whistle: Speech to Text in 16.9 MB
Have you tried playing music from his childhood for 20 minutes a day before his writing sessions?

In some cases, this may improve function for a few hours. Best regards =3

Joel_Mckay··on The cost of lies: A Mineserver story
>Didn’t get wings from Red Bull

But it does give taurine, and for some people it is problematic.

Unsustainable corporate policy tends to afflict larger publicly traded firms, as the responsibility and personal liability is diffused. For most normal competitive brands, the firm does not survive too many scandals or boondoggle products. =3

Joel_Mckay··on The cost of lies: A Mineserver story
Most people greatly underestimate how much it costs to build anything. Even a simple Toothbrush may cost over $1.4m to just bring up a production line to get inventory.

Most startups have a 1:22 chance of making it past 3 years, but if it is a hardware related item that drops to about 1:132 success rate.

Most modern startups just re-sell pad-printed/branded gadgets out of China, or partner with China factories to meet volume demands needed to reach a profit mode.

With the tariff situation, only a sucker would take that bet these days. =3

Joel_Mckay··on The cost of lies: A Mineserver story
Not sure if people buried your post for mistaking a question as snark...

In general No, even the shadiest people still uphold contracts due to public reputation with customers, suppliers, and the law.

Con artists and saboteurs do scrape by ripping off the credulous (they don't plan on hanging around long term), but even they just skirt the law to avoid prison. Note, even the worst criminals have their own code about what is acceptable, and just because their trade is illegal doesn't mean they want to live in a chaotic shit-hole country. It is a a moral gray area in both eastern and western cultures, that contrasts the written laws with actual practiced laws.

Almost every successful firm delivers everything on the invoice, and often it is customers shorting payment that are a problem.

Most customers and businesses have a mutual interest in seeing each-other do well. It is not like the movies, but be careful what you sign... and clear it it with a local legal representative if you don't understand a clause. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Nature's capacity to 'bounce back' when species are lost is overestimated: study
Don't worry about it =3
Joel_Mckay··on Nature's capacity to 'bounce back' when species are lost is vastly overestimated
"Saving the Planet" (George Carlin)

https://youtu.be/7W33HRc1A6c?si=HqyW8mys0uNBuFdW&t=147

Humorous, but not inaccurate about what climate change means to primates. =3

Joel_Mckay··on ChatGPT is adding real cartoonists' signatures to fake New Yorker cartoons
>which is why we aren't seeing any vindication

Could also be regulatory capture, and Sealioning. =3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning

Joel_Mckay··on ChatGPT is adding real cartoonists' signatures to fake New Yorker cartoons
In general, commercial entities have to be more cautious what they "think" international copyright and trademark laws cover.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhgYMH6n004

I would also recommend this book if people tire of the marketing hype. =3

"Gilded Rage" (Jacob Silverman, 2025)

https://www.amazon.com/Gilded-Rage-Radicalization-Silicon-Va...

Joel_Mckay··on ChatGPT is adding real cartoonists' signatures to fake New Yorker cartoons
> training it on copyright material isn't inherently illegal

Unless folks spider sites that clearly state the terms of use prohibit such actions, violate GPL licenses, and scrape private conversations or markup input.

Also, fair-use loopholes that protect academics don't always apply in a commercial context. The encoding of the data in a proximity vector search space is irrelevant. =3

Joel_Mckay··on ChatGPT is adding real cartoonists' signatures to fake New Yorker cartoons
>campaign that's stopping IP lawyers from litigating the case

Many already settled out of court with Disney due to trademark violations, then killed a popular project mostly used for Star-wars satire at the time.

Best of luck =3

Joel_Mckay··on The Tao of Backup
>Depending on the amount of data you have, might it not be less expensive than build the tape drive?

Rule #25: Try to avoid making what one may purchase, as the total cost is often many times higher than first assumed.

It is tempting for many, but often doesn't end well for businesses. =3

Joel_Mckay··on The Tao of Backup
Used Tape drives often had the write heads service hours go well past its recommended limits. Mission critical IT systems don't get "upgraded" off schedule very often. ymmv

Anecdotally, I have seen Tape sets fail in production settings, as a remote office location admin was doing incremental backups... and the sick tape drive kept silently damaging each daily roll-back attempt. They may fail ungracefully in an archival context.

I do not deny a janky BD-R drive option is situation specific, but for small projects I am fine with a 25GB disc $25.80/TiB solution with the occasional big file $62.42/TiB hit for 100G/128G EOL discs.

HDD are less hassle, still hit below $34.63/TiB, and last a few years. Not a bad fall back option if you still have old inventory. =3

Joel_Mckay··on The Tao of Backup
AWS is an option up to 30TiB, but also feeds into the over-provisioned data-center market pressures. The recent "rclone --gui" solution does bestow rsync/sshfs like features for Windows users now, and remote mounts are easier/cleaner to bring up. =3
Joel_Mckay··on The Tao of Backup
>I looked in to the bluray thing and concluded it just doesn't make sense at any level.

I mostly agree, but the 25GB M-Disc EOL media format is fairly interesting for archival purposes. The gamble actually made sense in this rare instance as each active project folder still fit on one disc, and the $120USD omnidrive firmware drives should keep the retro-equipment running for a few more years. These are relatively inexpensive even with a spare unit in the box.

>just getting a hard drive makes way more sense

In many cases this can be true, but the 3 years of HDD flight time compared to the 7+ year SSD wear life is also fairly close. It is weird, but the cost of higher capacity 18TB/24TB HDD also no longer make sense for JBOD either... unless you are hitting rack space constraints. =3

Joel_Mckay··on The Tao of Backup
The $/TiB storage cost currently creates weird choices in backup media... even making some older media formats economical again. Just finished a consumer storage option survey yesterday.

Even if you account for consumer drive+spare cost, a 8TB HDD is still the best JBOD option. For under several dozen 25GB projects, the BD-R disc drive is currently the cheapest media backup option (about 35% cheaper than HDD above 12TiB). Note 50G and 100G BD EOL media are actually equal to or a worse deal than HDD.

Also, HPE LTO9 18GB Tapes are currently around 5 to 15 times cheaper than HDD and SSD in terms of data storage cost, but the fixed cost of tape auto-loaders and drives don't always make sense until you have a significant amount of backup data. Tapes may also create a single point of failure in use... so incremental backups are a non-zero risk, and triple redundant hardware is required (old hardware gets hard to find.)

The classic joke is still true: "Fast, cheap, or good.. choose any two..."

Best of luck =3

Joel_Mckay··on The Tao of Backup
Social media cannibalized most of the interesting blogs, and 92% of people no longer have the patience to scroll more than 1/2 a page of text. =3
Joel_Mckay··on Big Balls Now Exposed to Serious Criminal Charges in at Least Six States
Rule #5: "Credit floats up, and blame travels down on the corporate ladder"

This is a universal fact with few exceptions. =3

Joel_Mckay··on OKI Develops 124-Layer PCB Technology
The PCB itself often forms several different components these days.

Higher density chip packing is only one advantage. Unlikely going to see such things in cost-optimized consumer products. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Big Tech's Capex Is Half of Wall Street's Profit Growth
There are still good opportunities to invest in firms with legitimate revenue flows, but avoiding the consolidated risk exposure is difficult.

The problem is the unsecured debt loads, fictional market projections, and secondary impact on real firms supplying products, services, and financing.

A good posture, is figuring out which firms may profit from the fire sales. The hard part for Bears and Bulls alike is they are both usually wrong about when a correction event happens (if they are honest players.) =3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rE75WvOtcu8

Joel_Mckay··on Surprisingly complex waves reveal the brain's inner workings
There are complex proximity interactions, the Robert Sapolsky biology course introduces the subject well (guest lecture by Nathan Woodling.) Best of luck =3

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLqeYp3nxIYpF7dW7qK8Ov...

Joel_Mckay··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
The roaring 20s were driven by a money cycle formed with post WWI farm machinery foreign demand, US factory growth to meet that stimulated demand, stocks to fund factory export growth market, and debt generated by unsecured customer financing.

Eventually the cycle/bubble collapsed, and the same 1930s tariff policy literally starved people for almost a decade.

I really hope we don't repeat that history. However, the Bear market distant roar can't be ignored. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Ask HN: What are you reading?
"Principles and Techniques for Designing Precision Machines"(Layton Carter Hale, Thesis, 1999)

Mostly seeking design tips for a vacuum tolerant micro-positioning stage project. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Show HN: Pac-Bench – How well can models one-shot a Pac-Man game?
>I wonder if we need better programming abstractions/ languages that can make programming easier for people.

That was nodejs, and it turns out people unwilling and or unable to improve things through systematic skill refinement just degrades into chaos.

Successful ecosystems are just pedantically lame enough to keep silly folks from going YOLO, but empowering enough to allow people to still have fun.

>which model has the best training code that was Pac-Man.

You mean which model is more cautious about copyright bleed-through of the $9Tn in FOSS and user code they misappropriated though isomorphic plagiarism. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Nvidia wants to put a watchdog chip next to every AI agent
If one can only see clowns, than ignoring the fires is easy. =3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sLpWVekMbs

Joel_Mckay··on Nvidia wants to put a watchdog chip next to every AI agent
There is a difference between risk mitigation, and remote administration tools. The risk of stealing from competitors with a backplane monitoring system may not end up forming the desired control asymmetry.

The hidden agent risk in LLM often can't be detected during training and evaluation. =3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL22URoMZjo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAcwtV_bFp4

Joel_Mckay··on Owed a billion dollars in Nvidia stock
Usually the university takes half of any funds, faculty takes half, and whatever is left over is split between the associated academics.

You were lucky, as most university contracts clearly state they own all associated IP created while working on campus. They could have legally given you $0, and end of employment notice. These things can get messy fast. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Owed a billion dollars in Nvidia stock
In general, most founding staff with lucrative contracts, are often pushed out just before an IPO. Doesn't matter if you were friends, worked 60 hour weeks building the company for years, or name is on the company patents.

A bit of cash can turn folks into awful people, and some contracts are just a obfuscated legal con of the naive. =3

Joel_Mckay··on Go Concurrency Distilled
Not sure why your opinion was buried, but Java Applets in the wild are rare these days. There is little Java offers not already covered by HTML5, wasm, and WebGL. Only naive student projects, and legacy systems cling to the ecosystem.

>state of the art GCs

That just isn't true, most of the Subscription Enterprise Performance Pack features are under a paid license by Oracle. The FOSS options are always slowly catching up, or not standards compliant enough for some commercial programs.

Being a sentient turnip, I probably wouldn't understand such things. Yet in general, 3rd party dependency injection into a design pattern should be considered a long-term variable cost. =3

Rule #3: popularity is not an indication of utility.

Joel_Mckay··on Go Concurrency Distilled
How the OTP handles Erlang/Elixir parallelism is kind of interesting. =3

https://blog.stenmans.org/theBeamBook/#_concurrency_parallel...

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