Incipient

I think art/music is in a weird dichotomy of sorts, for me at least. It's both the most and least impacted by AI. It's trivial to go "hey suno give me music" but I refuse outright to listen to AI music as knowing it's statistical noise (of sorts) I don't really get value/enjoyment out of it.

I'm confused how the world itself works - or would work - at scale. Taking that minecraft clip on the link, if I jump down a cave first, and the model decides the cave goes off to the left. A few hours later I come back, and this time the model decides the cave bends to the right?

Outputting video of that quality/consistency at 1 minute, for a 2.6B model seems insane?

The only way you can get away with creating an application without touching sql is of you offload the logic to your backend language, and then I don't think you'd be efficient enough to scale.

Also can someone actually understand the logic of joins, indexes, pks, etc enough to create an efficientand scalable db, and not simply have learned sql by proximity?

Sorry there should have been an 'and/or' clause in there.

Reputational I was thinking leaking data, or generating wrong information for users etc

I'm sure a vibe coded internal or external application WILL break a company. The thought process is however, out of 10 companies:

- 2 won't use AI at all and simply be left behind and stagnate (or go bust)

- 2 will partly use AI, and maybe keep up, maybe not

- 1 will go nuts vibe an entire app and explode (see Tea app or whatever)

- 4 will have an inefficient app, suffer reputational damage, lose some money, or similar, but probably survive

- 1 will hit the jackpot and get a 100M ARR company with 4 people.

Stats are of course completely made up, but you get the point.

The moat is absolutely about integration, not the underlying tech/model.

Azure Copilot can charge whatever it wants because you can't use anything else.

TLDR: people are cost conscious and cutting out the middle man by going direct to suppliers (or more direct).

I expect management probably didn't do as well as they could have too.

While tech has definitely enabled this shift, it doesn't seem overly relevant, outside of the current doomer views (albeit, it feels, valid views!)

Copilot has said they'll be giving out previous months "if you did token pricing, it would cost $x" so a lot of us will have real numbers to actually anticipate our spend.

Personally I'm anticipating agentic coding will be out of my price bracket (a single agent run costing US$20+ is far beyond what I can justify, especially with how often it fails). I'm planning on going back to optimised prompts on one-pass edits.

>there's little correlation between token spend and the quality

My sentiment exactly! I have a very similar scaffold to each of my prompts, and feel I provide similar context files, however sometimes I get a truly inspired, complex, and functionally complete response...and sometimes I'd have been better off running lorem ipsum through a python interpreter.

I can't find any rhyme or reason to success. I'm not sure if prompting is significantly more nuanced than I realise, or it's the statistical magic that's having a laugh at me.

>open source models on inference-optimized hardware.

Is this actually a thing? Or are you talking about some hypothetical "opus 4.7 ASIC"?

You have one agent write the code, a separate one to do the docs, a third to harmonise them.

After a few weeks they'll settle on the documentation for raised garden bed and the implementation of a home defence sprinkler system.

All while leaving you with a $10,000 bill at the end of the month.

Ain't life grand.

The problem is I can't afford the tokens! Even on my $10/mo plan, running either 100 opus, or 300 sonnet agent runs would cost hundreds of dollars - well above my budget!

I wouldn't call it hindsight - I don't think anyone, at any stage, thought running a 10 minute+ sonnet session for 1 premium credit was ever profitable. We all knew it was a loss leader to get people using it.

I'd call it a straight up "bait and switch".

I don't know how you'd confirm either way. A lot of stuff from the 80s is in landfill now because it's just old, even if not broken.

I'm sure we built a lot of badly made stuff then too, but my guess is with our tighter manufacturing tolerances, we can push things closer to breaking point, with our increased casting/molding tech, we make stuff smaller and more complex, so it breaks more, we also drive harder to profit margins (unsourced claim!) so cutting corners/quality is more acceptable/planned obsolescence/planned failure.

I still haven't found useful "memory". It's either an agents.md with a high level summary, which is fairly useless for specific details (eg "editing this element needs to mark this other element as a draft") or something detailed and explaining the nitty gritty, which seems to give too much detail such that it gets ignored, or detail from one functional area contaminates the intended changes in another functional area.

The only approach I've found that works is no memory, and manually choosing the context that matters for a given agent session/prompt.

Do you deploy a script per-user with mdm/intune to set up the wireguard tunnel whenever someone initially logs into a laptop?

I've investigated a few options for non-admin wireguard on Windows and it's all pretty messy.

I still cannot get even Opus to be consistent with my design logic, and not leak sensitive data via endpoints etc.

I'm either genuinely missing some key harness/whatever, or businesses are going to have issues down the line.

I mean it's a fairly trivial case of supply and demand. The demand for human capital will drop, so the price will go down.

CC wasn't per-token either? Nor is Codex?

From my simple checks - and from Microsoft's own blog - per token pricing isn't going to be realistic for agentic coding either.

>it’s now common for a handful of requests to incur costs that exceed the plan price!

I think this is really telling. The cost of AI has really been masked HUGELY to drive adoption. The true cost is likely to be unsustainable for the big complex tasks (agents running for hours+) that companies have been pushing.

I was skeptical, then quietly bullish on AI, but I'm now seeing signs the market is cracking and the availability is going to receded/costs balloon.

I don't think anyone can honestly say a huge frontier model is actually going to be matched by something running on 64gb locally?

For mid sized businesses, where you're mostly just doing some business reporting, a single mssql instance makes for a great and very cheap 'data warehouse'. All the auth magically works for people to connect with Excel, and powerbi+cloud just works out of the box.

I'd be curious what a better/non-legacy solution is! (as I do this stuff haha, and don't see much else other than full cloud options, sf etc)

I'm a mostly solo dev, and I'm finding that being purely code-review for an AI is sub-optimal. Too often the AI runs off down bad paths which you only realise later, and unpicking the mess is most likely a productivity loss.

Working more as a pair, or essentially doing code review as you go, in small chunks, is significantly better.

I personally don't have the setup of tokens to spend to say "go build this entire thing" and then review 15k loc. I also find even opus is poor at coming up with tests to justify the business logic it's meant to be implementing.

But then, what need do we have for the AI?

It's just 4 years...but I'm genuinely thinking you lot aren't going to survive it. Seeing what is happening from both sides, as well as 'independents' (the NY chap). I feel your society is just cooked. I am genuinely starting to believe it's irreparable to the extent it has progressed.

According to Wikipedia their current budget is roughly 40bn usd, so it would triple their budget.

This fascination with ignoring that everyone in this disaster is the 'bad guy' (yeah including the US) is very bizarre.

I can't believe that the toll will actually be paid - it would turn Iran into an INSANELY wealthy superpower and easily give them the funds to hugely increase their availability to fund groups like hezbollah etc.

Demos used to have sizes - I can't see one for this, is it just an 'open' category? This thing is far too insane to be size limited, surely?

The main thing I don't like is type-ability. Even now I type in 192.168.1.14 to connect to my mates computer to play satisfactory. No way in heck am I trying in an ip6!