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ISL

20,410 karma · joined September 21, 2012

Precision experimental tests of gravity: http://charliehagedorn.com

Precision force sensing and metrology: http://nanoradian.com

Errorbars are a good thing: http://measuredmass.com

Email: charlie@hagedorn.xyz

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/charliehagedorn/

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ISL··on The world has probably passed peak pollution
We may not yet have had the war that ends all wars.

Whenever I think about protecting the environment, I think about preventing the catastrophes that are wars.

ISL··on The business of wallets
Well, if you circle back to minimalist wallets, https://www.hawbuck.camp/ makes a wonderful one.
ISL··on Atomic nucleus excited with laser: A breakthrough after decades
No time to elaborate at the moment. Just want to say that this is extremely exciting news.

Finding the thorium line is one of the most important open problems in precision/fundamental measurement.

ISL··on The Moon brings a wild but precarious fish orgy to California's beaches
Tides depend on both the moon and sun. So does the phase of the moon.

Tides are largest at full moon and new moon, when their gravity gradients combine to enhance each other's tides. A week later, their gravity gradients interfere, decreasing the amplitudes of the tides.

ISL··on Inside the Super Nintendo cartridges
I don't know how much the publisher made in revenue from each cartridge. $0.50 might have been 5% of revenue?
ISL··on Florence museum won suit against publisher that used Michelangelo's David image
It leads to balkanization -- see Google's total withdrawal from China.

As a consumer, I recently selected a new device in large part because its cloud-affiliated software (and bespoke operating system) was written, stored, and administered in countries with appropriate and ethical legal frameworks. The competition was more feature-complete, but I concluded that I couldn't trust any of those options.

ISL··on White House wants Moon to have its own time zone, Coordinated Lunar Time (CLT)
General Relativistic time differences come primarily from differences in gravitational potential, not field-strength.

Thus, it is impossible to perform the suggested procedure. We don't (and probably can't) know what zero potential looks like.

Furthermore, we would probably measure those potential differences using clocks that rely upon the SI as presently defined.

ISL··on White House wants Moon to have its own time zone, Coordinated Lunar Time (CLT)
To do so is to redefine the second on the moon. That redefines the Watt, the Joule, the Newton, the Ampere, the Pascal, the Becquerel, etc.

It even makes a voltmeter read incorrectly.

Moon-meters would be different from Earth-meters.

Careful.

ISL··on White House wants Moon to have its own time zone, Coordinated Lunar Time (CLT)
TAI doesn't help. Observers on Earth and the Moon will forever disagree about the other's duration of a second (unless they account for the relativity corrections that make them appear to be different).
ISL··on White House wants Moon to have its own time zone, Coordinated Lunar Time (CLT)
It isn't just the speed/shape of the orbit. The gravitational potential difference is a major factor.
ISL··on Show HN: An Online Gantt Chart
How is this idea different from JIRA's Plans?
ISL··on Care
Clean and efficient web (for consumers) isn't terribly profitable.

Craigslist could make a lot more money, especially in the short-term, with different design and monetization choices.

ISL··on Gnuplotlib: A gnuplot-based plotting backend for NumPy
Does it implement the greedy matching/parsing of gnuplot? Doesn't look like it?

  pl 'data.dat' u 1:3 w p pt 7 lc 3 tit 'Interesting measurements'
flows from my mind like breathing. I miss that brevity and speed so much when exploring datasets quickly in other languages....

It's not nearly as maintainable as more-verbose and well-specified languages, but it's far more readable than regex :).

Edit to add: simply plotting a two-column data file in Gnuplot is as simple as:

  pl 'data.dat'
the above plots the third column against the first column with blue circular dots and applies annotated text to the key/legend, as I prefer to do when exploring data for the first time...
ISL··on Spotting LLMs with Binoculars: Zero-Shot Detection of Machine-Generated Text
Is a layman's interpretation of this to state: LLMs tend to perform like aggregated humanity, but any given human will differ. Since all the volume of a high-dimensional sphere is at the edge, almost nobody is like the mean, so the false-positive-rate is low?

It's a clever plan, until the LLMs do some adversarial training....

ISL··on Tour of new custom M1 macOS runners racks with Christina Warren [video]
A trillion dollars makes many things possible.
ISL··on The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero (2022)
Unfortunately true.
ISL··on The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero (2022)
Working with partners who have integrity is a massive boost to everything you do. People with high integrity attract more people with high integrity, compounding that effect.
ISL··on Fixing annoying blue standby lights
That night-mode option in Saabs is pretty incredible. It simplifies the driving experience to an impressive degree.
ISL··on Mickey, Disney, and the public domain: A 95-year love triangle
Absurd court cases exist.
ISL··on Mickey, Disney, and the public domain: A 95-year love triangle
Might be careful about discerning which midnight applies.
ISL··on Nikon makes firmware for astronauts to block cosmic rays in photos
I wish every manufacturer had an option for unique, nonrepeating, filenames!
ISL··on Behind the scenes of Sound ID in Merlin – Identify birds using your phone (2021)
Find a nice used EF 400 f/5.6L. It's hard to know what to write about it, except to say that it's great and has been a reliable companion for years.
ISL··on Forecasts need to have error bars
Then one should be very careful when assigning 99.9% confidence intervals.
ISL··on My Fediverse use – I'm hosting everything myself – PeerTube, Mastodon and Lemmy
I would self-host on a cloud instance for a monthly fee if it required no maintenance overhead from me.

I might also self-host if residential ISPs didn't treat home servers as an aberration.

ISL··on 'Impossible' orange auroras spotted in UK after solar storm slams into Earth
So there were few orange photons, but rather a mixture of red and green which commonly occur?
ISL··on Forecasts need to have error bars
A position espoused by Bill Phillips [1], and to which I now adhere:

"You should be willing to take either side of the bet that confidence interval implies." (paraphrasing; he says it better).

For a concrete example, with a 95% confidence interval, you should be as willing to accept the 19:1 odds that the true value is outside the interval as you are the 1:19 odds that the true value is inside the interval.

Aside from being generally correct, this approach is immediately actionable by making the meaning more visceral in discussions of uncertainty. Done right, it pushes you to assign uncertainties that are neither too conservative nor too optimistic.

If the notion of letting your reader take either side of the bet makes your stomach a little queasy, you're on the right track. The feeling will subside when you're pretty sure you got the errorbar right and your reasoning is documented and defensible.

Edit for OP's explicit question: One standard-deviation errorbars are 68% confidence intervals. Two standard deviations are 95% confidence intervals. (assuming you're a frequentist, of course)

[1] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1997/phillips/fact...

ISL··on Booking.com hackers increase attacks on customers
In my industry, we are seeing skillful phishing attempts compromising experienced and well-connected businesses. Those connections are immediately leveraged to strike again.

The MO is the same as described in the article -- a well-crafted email with a link to a file in a respected cloud host.

Is there a centralized place (FBI ?) to report these attacks? The bad actors will be obvious in aggregate.

ISL··on A reality bending mistake in Apple's computational photography
I hope, but am not certain, that by configuring my Pixel to save both a jpeg and a raw for each image, at least the raw would avoid these shenanigans.
ISL··on Ansel
The legacy editing workflows are generally, if not entirely, still available in Darktable. I haven't yet encountered a defect in my old edits on new versions of Darktable.
ISL··on OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role
If enough employees quit or Microsoft throws some weight around, the enterprise could implode, making board-control moot.
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