Hacker News Reader

IAmGraydonon Anthropic Sees over $30T in Potential Revenue

I have a feeling a lot of people here read the headline, hit the paywall, and had a reaction. This is just the ridiculous estimate of TAM that every IPO contains, and it's always a complete clown show. Uber set their TAM at $6T in 2019. They currently do $50B per year in revenue. SpaceX set theirs at $28.5T on $18B of revenue. These numbers are not to be taken seriously at all. Each claim has to be more outrageous than the last because that, after all, is what they're selling in their IPO.

https://archive.is/iJskQ

IAmGraydonon One corner of China’s internet is insisting that the Tang Dynasty never existed

https://archive.is/qD2nD

IAmGraydonon Oceans hit highest temperature on record

Then you might like this site: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

IAmGraydonon U.S. Debt Hits $40T as America's Borrowing Binge Continues

You've probably heard the saying "Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times." Well, it's true. And the good times have created many, many weak men. The next part is going to be here sooner than most think.

IAmGraydonon U.S. Debt Hits $40T as America's Borrowing Binge Continues

80% of bonds are held domestically, and it's what US banks use to back deposits. If the US government stops paying its debt, your money in the bank will vaporize. And no, the FDIC won't be able to restore it. That's among the least bad things that will happen.

IAmGraydonon Ask HN: How do you keep up with HN these days?

https://news.ycombinator.com/classic

Try browsing this instead. It's the front page as voted by ancient accounts. It tends to be an excellent way to filter out low quality content, IMO.

IAmGraydonon AI has access to a vastly larger working memory than the human brain

I've long held the belief that humans cannot truly create. We just remix and recombine. This is interesting - although I'm not religious, many religious texts call god the "Creator", perhaps because the ability to truly create original thought is above the ability of us humans. To truly create is divine. Maybe the writers of those old texts recognized this as well.

IAmGraydonon AI Can Now Design Functional Viruses. Should We Worry?

Actually, they can kill everyone.

IAmGraydonon The other Sean Byrne doesn't exist

I used to own a very small, very niche retail business that produced a specific part for analog synthesizers. I had customers in literally nearly every nation on earth, and I was surprised by how many times I received returned package for shipping to a person who was “sanctioned” by the US Government. It was probably something like 1 out of every 100 packages. In each case, the person on the receiving end was surprised to hear about the sanction and I honestly believe most were mistaken identity like the article in this post. When it happens, it’s nearly impossible to do anything about it.

IAmGraydonon Namecheap outage caused by cooling system failure at Phoenix data center

Yeah I've had all my personal project domains at Namecheap for a very long time but have been meaning to move over to CloudFlare. Guess I should get on that...

IAmGraydonon 2026 Eclipse Webcams

Ugh - I didn't know this will pass over Reykjavik. Would have been fantastic to see from there.

IAmGraydonon U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

Perhaps the market takes job loss as a sign that AI is replacing jobs, which would be a positive for stocks, at least for now.

IAmGraydonon This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again

This is the entirety of their thesis on its war prediction powers, BTW:

>First opened in 1917 to support munitions production in World War I, it shut down three years later when peace crashed the tungsten market. Starting up again in 1938 on the eve of World War II, it was saved twice more as conflict broke out first in Korea and then Vietnam. In 1990, exactly 12 months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it closed, seemingly for good.

The title is clickbait.

IAmGraydonon US strikes $1.2B deal to pay German firm to halt offshore wind projects

I mean no disrespect, but if you're seeing a deep parallel between the Roman Empire's final days and what's going on in the US today, I would say you need to study Roman history more. It was in deep chaos that most people in the world today can't even imagine.

The Empire was relentlessly invaded by tribes like the Visigoths and the Vandals, and they even sacked Rome multiple times in the 400s CE. There was a huge amount of political corruption, and no, I don't mean anything like what's going on in the US. Military leaders and royal guards fought each other for power, leading to frequent civil wars and leaders who didn't last long. No one wanted to join the military and so it had to hire foreign mercenaries who didn't really have any loyalty. The Roman Empire eventually split right in half because a single ruler could not project power over the entire territory. The Western Roman Empire spoke an entirely different language from the Eastern Roman Empire (Latin vs Greek)!

I'm sorry, but I keep hearing these comparisons from people who seem to have a very shallow understanding of history and are looking for patterns because they read online that the US is crumbling. Maybe, maybe not, but it is not the same thing or even similar. The differences are far more than the similarities.

IAmGraydonon US beef prices have soared but farmers aren't making more money

It's a shame you're getting downvoted (and I probably will too), but I have to say this is one of the few rational and correct posts in this thread. Most people can't look at markets objectively because they're actively participating in them and are therefore emotionally involved. As you said, the bid side seeks the lowest price and the ask side seeks the highest price. You don't get to judge the motivation of market participants on either side. The price is what it is because two parties decided to make a deal at a certain price level. The seller is no more to blame for rising prices than the buyer is because they were willing to pay it.

IAmGraydonon Fed's Kashkari says 'now is the time to start slowly moving' rates up

I’m not talking about raising interest rates. I’m talking about uncontrollable increases in treasury yields due to the biggest holder of US treasuries selling them off.

IAmGraydonon I’m leaving OpenAI to build telepathy

It not about creating anymore. It's about power, and now a certain group of the top tech elite have experienced enough power that they're having delusions of grandeur. Those delusions cater to the dark desires that live inside most humans - to have control over everyone and everything.

IAmGraydonon Discovery Loop

Google is literally at the same stock price it was on Monday. This is a normal daily fluctuation for them.

IAmGraydonon Fed's Kashkari says 'now is the time to start slowly moving' rates up

What happens next is that US Treasury yields go to the moon, making previously bought treasuries nearly worthless. Most bank deposits in the US are instantly used to buy treasuries, so severe devaluation of those less-than-mature bonds on the secondary markets means that money held by banks is not really there. Should there be a larger than average number of people making withdrawals, bonds would be dumped on the secondary for pennies on the dollar. Bank runs, complete financial collapse, etc. Enjoy.

BTW, this is exactly what happened to Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 on a smaller scale.

IAmGraydonon AirLLM 70B inference with single 4GB GPU

It might make sense to do this if there literally isn't an existing solution out there, but I think most would find that it's better to use an existing solution than to recreate the wheel every time there's a need. It's just less effort/time/money.

IAmGraydonon US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market

Bessent wrote that note very large and intentionally left it visible in hopes that it would be photographed and the market would do the work for him. If the market believes the US Government is going to spend $10B on JPY, it will happily price it right in without the US having to spend a penny.

IAmGraydonon Has the New Cocaine Arrived?

Like most drugs of this class, monoamine reuptake inhibitor. It basically keeps your nerve cells from breaking down excess dopamine, seratonin, and norepinephrine. Same way MDMA, meth, etc work. The difference is really in the ratio of reuptake inhibition between neurotransmitters.

IAmGraydonon Has the New Cocaine Arrived?

Thing is, it’s just not true. 3-MMC spins you up hard and it would be extremely obvious in a work setting, for example. These are just the words of a user that wants to believe that no one knows when they’re using.

IAmGraydonon Deep-sea vehicles spot 'alien' sharks deep beneath the waves in the Pacific

It is glided. "Glid" is not a word in the English language.

IAmGraydonon Linux desktop market share has hit over 10% in North America

Unfortunately, Cloudflare does not agree if you filter for "likely human", which results in 6%. If you include bots, it hits 9.3%.

https://radar.cloudflare.com/explorer?dataSet=http&groupBy=o...

IAmGraydonon AI doesn't generate working products, that's still your job

Interesting. What product and/or project have you successfully launched with it?

IAmGraydonon Anatomy of a Frontier Lab Agent Intrusion: A Timeline of the July 2026 Incident

Go read my post. I didn't say it wasn't. I said it wasn't "made up". In other words, it did happen. It was still a marketing stunt.

IAmGraydonon Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots

I'm really curious - are the people who keep saying this in denial or lacking in a basic education in economics? You can imagine all you want, but this is absolutely not a possible outcome.

IAmGraydonon Anatomy of a Frontier Lab Agent Intrusion: A Timeline of the July 2026 Incident

Yeah that is quite a good point. A post-mortem is normal. This is not a post-mortem.

IAmGraydonon Anatomy of a Frontier Lab Agent Intrusion: A Timeline of the July 2026 Incident

Very few think they made it up. Many think they set up a situation by disabling guardrails that would inevitably end up creating a newsworthy outcome.