Hypx_

It will happen by around 2030. It might reach 100% shortly afterwards. Also, hydrogen production should increase by well over an order of magnitude in 25-30 years.

Given the rapid drop in green hydrogen costs, this argument is itself becoming outdated. We will just switch green sources of ammonia and there will be minimal if not nonexistent increases in cost.

GM proceeded to ignore everything that worked at that plant (and still does, nevermind what that article says). They flat out refused to learn from Toyota even when they saw it upfront.

We live in a racist world. You either accept it or be blind to many of the problems of the world.

Not quite. The body would natural develop several types of cancer without an immune system to suppress them. People with AIDS will have short lives even without exposure to any external diseases.

I think the Detroit automakers have the same mentality. It's almost like there's this racism belief that the Japanese could never have figured something out that Westerners haven't.

That’s not actually true. Many AIDS patients will die of cancer due to a lack of immune system suppressing those common occurring cancers.

Hydrogen is going to displace batteries. The mistake is with companies who bet everything on li-ion batteries and not other ideas.

They're pushing for both really. The real mistake is to go all in on batteries without ever considering any alternatives.

There is no hard limit except 100% efficiency (sorta*). As fuel cells are a type of battery they can eventually match li-ion batteries on efficiency. Combined with their ability to capture curtail power on a very large scale and the economics of hydrogen could easily surpass that of the EV.

* There is a soft limit at 85%, but that is mainly due to the need to turn liquid water into steam over the entire process. This can be ignored if electrolysis is done on steam instead of liquid water. Also, 85% is close enough to li-ion batteries that very few people will care about it.

Hydrogen has already found those fundamental discoveries, and much of it is the rapid reduction in green hydrogen cost. It's really a matter of time before economics shifts the entire industry towards hydrogen over resource-intensive batteries.

It's already starting to happen. It won't be something that happens decades in the future. The disruption of EVs by hydrogen technology is likely a current event.

I think its time we start realizing that much of the "efficiency" argument is an exaggeration or a lie. EVs aren't that efficient especially in cold weather, and fuel cell cars aren't really that far off. The other big issue is the inability to capture excess renewable energy. As we keep on building out more renewables, we're finding out that curtailed energy is growing exponentially. Pretty soon the vast majority of renewable energy will just go to waste. Hydrogen allows to use that energy, but batteries won't. Combined with the huge resource requirements of batteries it's clear that this technology is primed for a major stumble.

I suspect cost of streaming services will increase though. Cable didn't get as expensive as it did overnight after all.

Should be noted that that will work too. In fact that is the plan for most facilities. However, you will still need a separate electrolysis facility. With this you just pipe hydrogen into bigger pipes. It could be cheaper to implement it this way.

Piping gases is also a solved problem. It existed even before electricity. I sound certain because I'm certainty right. If anything it's bit amusing to see supposedly smart people have so much trouble accepting the existence of 18-19th century technology.

FYI, coal gas is about 50% hydrogen and is two centuries old: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gas#Composition

Unless the destination of the electricity is also next to the local collection network the pipeline can be simpler. It's certainly not going to be a worse idea.

It's going to be hydrogen.

Over short distances sure, but once you're talking thousands of km a pipeline is way simpler.

For a household size connection sure, but once you're looking at extremely high voltages the electrical solution becomes hard. It's a totally different kind of cable and has very different problems to deal with. Meanwhile a pipe fundamentally doesn't change whether it's 1in or 48in wide.

10% of a whole summer.

Toyota is not wrong at all. Hydrogen is going to be the future of personal transportation too. EVs are basically unsustainable ideas as they require so much raw materials. Not to mention that we have to have hydrogen to hit zero emissions, but we don't need EVs at all.

Just for added advice: Toyota also makes battery powered cars alongside their hydrogen cars. Tesla however does not make hydrogen powered cars at all. So without getting into details, it's clear that Toyota knows more about how each technology stack up against each other. So for Tesla to be right on this, it means that without having any knowledge of hydrogen cars they still know that it can't work, even over a company that knows something about both.

It can be described as Toyota having both eyes open whereas Tesla is blind in one eye, but still claiming that the latter sees better.

We'll likely use underground hydrogen storage in the form of salt caverns and expended natural gas reservoirs.

For larger installations pipes are easier than wires.

He's a fool to not realize the threat. Tesla is almost certain to collapse unless they start making hydrogen cars themselves.

If you know the history of disruption, you'd know that very few companies survive them. "All but two" could the list of dead companies from this, not the survivors.

The typical mono-si solar panel is about 20-22% efficiency. For poly-si this drops to about 15%, but are cheaper and therefore still sees a lot of demand. Solar water-splitting at 13.8% is well in the range of feasible competitiveness as long as it is cheap to build.

Fuel cell cars are electric cars. Since hydrogen is much more plentiful than lithium, it's nearly a certainty that the vast majority of cars will eventually switch over to hydrogen.

Battery cars are being disrupted by hydrogen cars. In a decade the shift will be almost entirely towards hydrogen and BEVs will be seen as obsolete.

Wrong. Hydrogen cars are the future. It's Tesla and the rest that are going to die off by betting on the wrong horse.

Considering how much raw materials you take out of the car, this is a good idea.