31 karma · joined May 1, 2021
The argument that hydrogen is inefficient is itself a massive exaggeration. Fuel cells are more efficient than anything except batteries, and come with the upside of much less weight and resource requirements. For hydrogen to be cheaper than electricity, all it needs is an infrastructure that is moderately cheaper than the grid, as energy costs are only a minor portion of the total cost. It is not even that far off as cost per mile between EVs and hydrogen cars is around 50-75% in most places. Fuel cell cars are cheaper than diesel cars now in many countries, and will get cheaper as hydrogen infrastructure expands.
I don't know where you come from, but electricity costs has skyrocketed in countries that are trying to switch to renewable energy, and still going up by 10-20% annually. The low cost of electricity was entirely due to cheap existing sources, mainly coal or natural gas, with some regions with hydro or nuclear. Take away the reliable and dispatchable power generate and the grid becomes a nightmare of unpredictable power. In fact you need hydrogen to balance out the grid and make it stable. In all likelihood electricity will be expensive enough such that EVs no longer have any kind of cost advantage. Especially if they start to tax EVs like they tax other cars.
A lot of that is due to a lack of investment. As countries fall into the battery fad while ignoring real green energy (like nuclear), green policy in a lot of countries have become a joke. Sweden is an example of this as they are shutting down their nuclear power. They will use coal or natural gas as a replacement. EVs will actually get more polluting and not less. Although Sweden has ignored hydrogen for the last 5 years, they will have no choice but to invest billions in hydrogen now because they have other path to zero emissions.
The biggest event in green energy investment is the massive surge in hydrogen investment: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/hydrogen-project-ann...
It's pretty obvious that the world is moving past batteries in the same way it moved past previous obsolete green ideas like biofuels or diesel engines.
Again, it's a solved problem.
As electricity prices are still going up, and with hydrogen coming down we're not far off from cost parity. People really need to foresee a day where FCEVs are cheaper than BEVs.
EVs in general are heavily subsidized. By the time we switch to hydrogen fuel taxation it's likely gasoline will have already been displaced. Many German manufacturers are making hydrogen vehicles, albeit not passenger cars. That said, this is the most obvious disruptive event in recent memory. It wouldn't be a surprise if all of them went bankrupt due to the arrival of hydrogen cars. It's also something of a surprise as many UK companies are investing in hydrogen cars.
It will be a significant fraction of the year that will be powered by hydrogen as the primary energy source. Just creating more green electricity will mostly end up wasting it as there is no other way of capturing and storing it.
All regions must have hydrogen available. For things like industry, shipping, trucking, grid energy storage, etc., it is basically unavoidable for a country to not hydrogen. BEV islands will be small and not an alternative to widespread deployment of hydrogen-related infrastructure. But the reverse is not true, as it is fully possible for a country to reach zero emissions with no BEVs.
The biggest change in environmental policy is the widespread deployment of hydrogen and related technologies. Many countries now like the UK, Germany, Australia, Japan, etc., have very significant hydrogen expansion policies. These policies will accelerate rapidly going forward.
Plug-in FCEVs exist. They can react flexibly to energy costs if hydrogen suddenly gets more expensive. They make more sense than a car that only runs on electricity.
If by "fraction of the time" you mean upwards of 100% of all grid energy for weeks on end, then yes it is a fraction of the time. In reality this is such a large factor that it will drive hydrogen costs to below grid electricity for very long periods and over large areas. Some communities might even think of getting off the grid and generate all electricity from hydrogen directly. In such cases hydrogen will always be cheaper.
While it will make sense for some communities to stick with direct electrification, this is going to be the rare case where dependable renewable electricity exist. It will also likely force BEVs into driving "islands", as it would not make sense to drive a BEV outside those specific regions. Ultimately, BEVs will end up mostly as commuter cars intended for short range trips. This will also drastically reduce the problem of battery e-waste and eliminates the need for vast numbers of fast charging stations.
Gasoline is approaching 7€ per gallon in Germany. Cost per mile is cheaper with a hydrogen car. Public charging is more like 0.40€/kWh in Germany too. Cost per mile is is not that different between EVs and hydrogen cars.
The Mirai starts at 50,000€ before subsidies in Europe. It is nearly as cheap as the cheapest Model 3. Depending on the subsidies you get it could be even cheaper.
Future hydrogen will be cheaper and so will be fuel cell costs. People's mentality on this subject is entirely out of date.
The only way we can get there at a reasonable cost is via hydrogen energy storage. The other ideas are orders of magnitude too expensive.
For the UK, the solution might look something like this: https://hydrogeneast.uk/study-explores-uks-geological-hydrog...
What you're doing is just concern trolling, and suggesting that just because a program won't instantly get to zero emissions it is somehow not real. Meanwhile, electric cars are still being charged up mostly by fossil fuels, a fact that cannot change on the large scale without green hydrogen. Somehow, this fact is never brought up in every anti-hydrogen attack.
A gas turbine can get you up to 60% efficiency BTW. While fuel cells are arguably the better idea in the long run, it is not a huge problem to use gas turbines for now.
Such projects could scale to a large enough size to solve the intermittency problem.
Storing hydrogen underground has existed for decades. It's already been accepted by people in the industry that this is a solved problem.
Also, the scale of hydrogen storage facilities far exceeds anything else ever proposed: https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/10/23/weekend-rea...
It's clear that obsessing over the last step is unnecessary. As soon as you have the hydrogen available, there will be many obvious solutions available.
Also, all of the cost is R&D. The cost of building fuel cell cars is probably very low.