I’m curious if any Trump voters are starting to feel any buyer’s remorse. The pain from the tariffs is only going to get worse. Soon we will have Trumpflation and a Trumpcession. Meanwhile, auto manufacturers are laying off employees. We are seeing pain with no gain. There is no reindustrialization nor will there ever be through this policy. For every economist except for Navarro, this is quite the own goal. I’m guessing you all were expecting Trump 1. Any doubts creeping in yet?
Somebody has to manage the business relationships and go out and sell. Somebody has to be in charge of marketing, payroll, and PR. Somebody has to be the public face of the company, out networking and attending trade shows. If you’re a technical founder and all this sounds like fun to you, then yeah, a non-technical cofounder would not offer much. But there’s something to be said for having more time to put your head down and build.
Given that o3 is trained on the contents of the Internet, and the answers to all these chess problems are almost certainly on the Internet in multiple places, in a sense it has been weakly trained on this content. The question for me becomes: is the LLM doing better on these problems because it’s improving in reasoning, or is it simply improving in information retrieval.
I had a similar experience where math went from being easy and fun to an intimidating and painful slog. My problem was just how focused most courses are on learning techniques for solving problems. I found all those endless substitutions that you learn in calculus to be infinitely dull and so it was difficult to do a good job. Ditto for the solution techniques for differential equations. Don’t get me started on matrix inverting. I think I had to do a 5x5 matrix once for a homework assignment. What a colossal waste of time.
Proof-based math classes came like a revelation to me. When I took Real Analysis, for the first time in over a decade, math was fun. You weren’t just memorizing and reapplying recipes. You were seriously thinking about unique problems and devising solutions. And all the while, you were learning where all these techniques actually came from and how everything connected together.
I don’t understand why we can’t have more proof heavy math in high school. Who cares whether you remember the arctan substitution or whatever in an integral; I’d always just use a solver for that anyway. I’d rather be learning about what an integral is in the first place.
I disagree. Before 538 people were still offering lots of election predictions and it was much much worse, because it was based entirely on hunches and vibes. Silvers rates the pollsters and provides confidence intervals far better than a simple average of polls does. I’d much rather read his forecasts than any number of bloviating opeds.
I’m sad to say that you are the one who does not understand urban development. There’s actually quite a lot of research on induced demand (which is the name for what you’re talking about) and there isn’t any evidence of it in the housing market. Rather, new construction lowers rents across the board. Which makes sense. If a bunch of new people want to live in a place and no new housing is made for them, what else can happen but a rise in prices?
Here’s just a taste. Do please read and if you have a problem with the identification strategies, I would love to hear it.
Is a glut of English and Comparative Literature PhDs really that big of a benefit? Those skills are not transferable to anything. I think it’s a crime the way liberal arts departments admit way more students than could ever hope to find a job in Academia. I say this as someone who loves literature and is sad to see these departments shrink. But it isn’t fair to the students to put them through so much pain when you know there is nothing for them at the end of the tunnel.
You shouldn’t. Lest we forget, China has banned all American social media companies and quite a few other tech companies. Why shouldn’t the US do the same? Red Note should probably be banned too. The condition to lift the ban? Allow google, facebook, snap, etc in China. Until that day, I don’t understand why this is even a question.
Looks like he moved to the US only five years before the Armenian Genocide and I'm guessing it was because he could see the writing on the wall. Goes to show that massacring your citizens has an economic cost.
I dunno. I’m kind of with the sentiment in his original column, or at least how he paraphrased it. I think it’s naive to believe that you can bring about any real change in tech through moral suasion alone. The monetary payoffs are too large and there are too many people who will work for them no matter what. If you want to change some behavior that you find immoral, your best bet is to organize politically and pass laws.
In my field, writing quality was on the very lowest rung of importance, below even teaching evaluations. As much as I value clear, concise prose, I’d say a grad student would be better served working on public speaking especially when faced with hostile questioning, and, sadly, with brown-nosing. Yes I am bitter :p
I don’t know if I agree. Grad school was profoundly humbling to me because it really showed me that there are a LOT of people out there that are just much much better than me at math. There are different levels of innate talent.
We need research because we’re not running an experiment globally. An experiment would involve a randomly selected treatment and control group. I’m guessing it seems obvious to you that social media is responsible for a wide array of ills. But, as a researcher, I can’t trust what is “obvious”. Because a lot of things that have seemed obvious have ended up being wrong such as leeches as a treatment for illness, or that the earth is flat. And there certainly have been quite a few confounds over the past twenty years: the financial crisis, the pandemic, deindustrialization brought about by China’s rise, the fracturing of the news media in general, and on and on. Which is to say that I don’t care what your identity is; I care what evidence you have. Because without evidence all we have is our gut, and history has shown that the gut isn’t a very good indication of truth.
Even if the p < .05 threshold is removed, we’re still left with the important threshold of getting published or not getting published. Judging a paper by the quality of its statistical method won’t be enough to sort the publishable from the unpublishable in top journals. As a result, low p-values will continue to be favored and p-hacking will continue. To me it seems like a consequence of scarcity of academic positions and the tenure system.
I haven’t read Albion’s seed, so maybe I’m missing something. But… I don’t see any evidence for anything in the piece. Just because you can make a narrative about the similarities between puritans and certain facets of California policy doesn’t mean that one caused the other. I could point out parallels between the puritans and Japanese culture too, or Venezuelan culture. This doesn’t seem like history to me so much as fiction writing.
What does this mean for browsers derived from chrome, like Arc? I heard they plan on continuing to support Manifest v2, but will ublock continue to be maintained for chrome?
This journal article has been thoroughly debunked three separate times. TLDR if you dig into the data, the middle class agree with the rich most of the time and in the small cases where they disagree, it’s a wash between who gets their way. So yes they have outsized influence, but no the US does not appear to be an oligarchy. More here: https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11502464/gilens-page-oligarchy-...
If you have a large family, it’s hard to get by without an SUV. Four kids and all their car seats do not fit into a regular sized car. While it would be great if we could all just get my on public transportation and shank’s pony like in Europe, the ship left the port a hundred years ago on that one. Like it or not the majority of US cities are designed for the car.
My takeaway from this article is that Paul Romer doesn’t know how to use the environment feature in anaconda. If he has a problem with dependency resolution speed, ‘conda install mamba’ will solve that.
But really, for his use cases, he should be using Julia (for DSGE modeling) or else R for stats.
Still, I applaud his willingness to try new things, if more economists were like him, we might finally break the stranglehold of stata and matlab in econ.
I’m guessing you’ve never had to deal with a loved one in the throws of addiction or severe mental illness. We are not perfectly rational beings and sometimes we make very bad choices, especially when we suffer from a mental illness like addiction. If I had the choice between seeing a loved one temporarily institutionalized versus having them die of an overdose, I would take the former. It isn’t ideal, but sometimes you have to choose the least awful thing.
My guess is that this would be even worse for news sites as it would lower their overall traffic. Certainly seems to be the case in Canada. I don’t get the sense that search engines/fb/etc are the problem. Rather it’s 1) loss of classified ads and 2) competition from all the free content provided in blogs, posts, tweets and so on. Why pay to read an uninformed opinion piece when you can get it for free scrolling through your X feed?
I don't see why "European" philosophy (I assume you mean continental) is any more global than analytic philosophy. Both originate from what is only a small sliver of humanity. In fact continental philosophy with its heavy French and German focus, comes from an even smaller demographic base than Anglo world, which at the very least includes the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand.
I’ve seen journalists get it wrong enough in my own field that I don’t trust any sensational headline anymore. The world is complicated and you need specialization to make any sense of specific domain. Journalists are mostly professional dilettantes and I don’t trust them in any halfway technical field. I’ve been burned too many times.
I always wondered why all these sales emails use exactly the same language. Right now my inbox is filled with “quick questions”. now I have an answer: apparently people write whole books on individual word choices.
It seems the sales industry would benefit from considering the possibility of heterogeneous effects. I can see these techniques working for some, but they are off-putting for me and are a great way to get immediately blocked.
This is a direct and predictable consequence of anti housing policies. Decry it all you like, but unless you actually vote out the left-NIMBY supervisors who have a majority on the board, you are part of the problem.
Inertia. Stata was a good and relatively easy option in the eighties when the credibility revolution kicked off. Now it takes too much effort to switch over to R. At least that’s way current tenured professors believe and good luck convincing them otherwise.