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Galanwe

4,098 karma · joined January 9, 2014

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Galanwe··on Why are European countries moving their gold out of North America?
- Because USD is the main trading currency, much more liquid than anything else

- Also for physical resources, you want geographical diversification, and America is far enough that to be orthogonal to e.g. European conflicts

Galanwe··on Incident with Github.com [resolved]
That canot happen if the market becomes monopolistic, with every bigtech out there buying every startup worth a penny. The erosion of anti trust in the US created this monstrosity.
Galanwe··on Asus Bike Booster
You are being confused, vehicles by themselves are not limited, their category is.

You can have an electric vehicle that runs at 100kph if you want, but that is not a bike, that is a motorcycle.

The problem here is people having vehicles assimilated as ebikes, but with radically different specs.

I have no problem with these guys driving their vehicles on the car lane, like motorbikes do, but that's not what we're talking about here.

These vehicles are running on the bike lane, drivers are without helmets, they cross pavements, and enjoy all the slow vehicles perks, while being far more dangerous for their surroundings.

Galanwe··on Asus Bike Booster
Solex got used much longer than post WWII, the engine is very easy to service. I had one when I was 15, and most of my friends did as well. Everyone in the village had either a "solex" or an old "mobilette".
Galanwe··on Asus Bike Booster
This drives me mad as well. Electric bikes should be limited to 25kph and non throttled in Europe, yet half the bikes I see are both, and drive recklessly.
Galanwe··on A year of fighting scrapers on my 1.5 million-page website
The point of PoW access is not that its hard to bypass, it's that you cannot bypass it at scale.
Galanwe··on After Losses, Retail Investors Flock to 3x Leverage as 2x Product Are Restricted
> Leveraged funds are the safest way for the average investor to get access to leverage

I... do not agree that leveraged funds are somehow a safest way to access leverage.

Every product including leverage has inherently a non-linear P&L. And from my experience, non sophisticated investors always struggle to grasp the implications of that. It makes returns (on capital) very path dependent, and very nasty during volatile regimes. It breaks the naive assumption of "well I could always hold and wait for the dust to settle".

> unlike margin there is no risk of margin calls

This is a bit of a weird statement. Leverage implies margin, you cannot make it disappear, the funding and associated risk has to come from somewhere, it's just that it is continuously applied, instead of fixed timings.

I do agree that it simplifies planning and reserve management though.

> even Warren Buffet made his biggest early wins on all-in bets.

This is a bit disingenious, note that Buffet did not use leverage...

Galanwe··on Ten Ways NAS Is Getting Enshitified
Its the maintenance and details that kill your NAS.

You will probably rely on it for 10 years at least, so building your NAS means committing to maintaining it in the long term, you have to be sure this is something you will uphold.

Also while setting up your NAS initially is definitely doable, there are a trillion little things to get right and make sure won't bite you later on (scrubble, etc).

All these things compounds if the NAS is not just for you, but your wife, kids, family, etc. Now it becomes your responsibility that all these precious data and photos entrusted to you are 100% safe for the decades to come.

Galanwe··on French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
> You're conceptually wrong about "the theory" and factually about the majority of fires.

Well then prove me wrong...

The BDIFF publishes data of close to 30 years of wildfires reports.

If you plot the number of wildfire occurrences per year, you will see a decreasing curve up to 2010, then a constant rise onward, forming a U shape. I don't think you will find any correlation with global warming data there.

If you plot a pie chart of investigated wildfire causes, you will see the top cause being "criminal" at 35% of investigated occurrences, followed by "Involontary individual" (the simple minded guy with his cigaret but) at 25%, and "Involontary work" at 15%.

Now let me repeat again, I'm not saying that CC does not play a role in this story (not sure why I bother since it does not seem like people really try to understand the comments anymore), what I'm saying is that data does not really exhibit any obvious correlation between the two, and would suggest that even if CC is a factor, then other factors would seem to have a much greater impact.

Said impacting factors are not hard to find btw, and top is: investments in prevention and detection (which positively correlates with French BDIFF data FYI), and addition of stoppers and lay-lines in man made forests (yes, because the majority of French forests are not natural but man shaped as huge lumps of uninterrupted tree)

Galanwe··on French firefighters face 'pyrocumulonimbus' for first time
> What is indicative of escalating climate catastrophe is indeed the intensity and frequency of those firestorms

I don't think we have the data that proves this theory (which of course doesn't mean that the theory is wrong), because the vast majority of these fires are man-made, not natural disasters.

This year's Fontainebleau wildfires were caused by 1) a deranged person ligthning bushes and drenching them with fuel 2) a simple minded person throwing a cigaret but in bushes during a heat wave...

The huge wildfire in the south some years ago was caused by a similarly simple minded dude that caried his alight barbecue from one place to another on the back of his pickup truck (creating a dozen wildfires in the process along the road).

Galanwe··on .self: A new top-level domain designed to support self-hosting
> We may have to implement some type of heartbeat where the owner of said domain has to respond within a certain amount of time.

A domain squatter is in an easier position to automate that than an amateur to not forget to respond.

Galanwe··on Free SQL→ER diagram tool, runs in the browser, nothing uploaded
That's really good yes, even double tapping editing does not reset the zoom level. Definitely one of the best mobile friendly site I have seen.
Galanwe··on πFS
It's recursive as well, you now need to store how many levels of indirection of indices you had to resolve, which will in turn take 20TB to store, unless you store that in pi as well, which in turn...
Galanwe··on Let's Encrypt bans certificate usage in any US sanctioned territory [pdf]
> but I don't see many companies stepping up to provide competing services

Maybe because the US dropped most of its anti trust regulations, leading to ridiculously monopolistic practices such as "acquire everything that may be threatening".

Galanwe··on The EU Open Source Strategy
> Like that, a few companies are specialized in sucking public funds and delivering nothing.

Not just public, private funds as well. Typical EU, I call that helicopter regulating: you see a problem, throw a regulation at it, then close you eyes.

GDPR pop-ups are the most obvious example, but there are so many more.

For instance, now apparently companies can opt to send payslips digitally instead of physically (paper). Of course, some smart ass nitpicked that employees could loose or change their mail address, so the company is now forced to store digitally delivered payslips in some kind of European-hosted vault for 10 years. And since no sane company want to be liable for that, we now have a wonderful ecosystem of trash "payslip digital vaults" startups, which companies use to proxy-send employee payslips.

So in essence, my company is now sending my payslips (with name, address, contact details, compensation breakdown, etc) to a stupid start-up with egregious ToS, just because "send it by mail and let the employee back it up" was too simple. Thanks !!!

Galanwe··on Show HN: Lathe – Use LLMs to learn a new domain, not skip past it
It's very cool, and I can really see myself use that, but not in that form of deliverable.

See the best place I learn and read through materials is when I'm commuting. Far away from a console.

Could you envision a way to deliver this as a web app linked to e.g. an OpenRouter/Anthropic/OpenAI API key?

Galanwe··on Ask HN: What is your (AI) dev tech stack / workflow? (June 2026)
I have a vibe coded script which creates a git worktree + zellij pane with a specific layout + a virtualenv per feature. "tmuxinator" style.

The zellij layout includes panes for OpenCode, a shell, a neovim, inotify tests, etc.

I cycle through the zellij sessions during agent prefills.

Galanwe··on Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
I think the logical follow up will be for Uber to lay off a bunch of people so that the remaining ones can token maxx.

To the mooooon!

Galanwe··on macOS needs its grid back
> Textmate (and its revolutionary text-snippets) were the catalyst to my migration

Hooo damn TextMate snippets, that brings back memories. Hard to convey how hyped I was to use these. That is also what drove me to Mac at that time. I remember writing hundreds of those snippets for every possible C++ construct, and <tab> to fill in variable name, type, loop counters and so on.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
That depends if you trade cash or synthetic.

I think most people trade synthetic, just because it's faster and you don't have to wait for settlements, but maybe that is different if you trade onshore (I am a foreign investor).

Anyway if you are synthetic your margin is most likely shared between shorts and long on the same instrument, so no, you wouldn't be called.

Galanwe··on The dead economy theory
"Tech stocks are growth stocks", that's pretty much how the market sees them anyway.

So essentially, they are not expected to be boring businesses yielding stable dividends to investors. That's your aristocrats stocks postioning: J&K, P&G, etc.

What is expected from tech stocks is the opposite: small to no dividend, reinvesting inflows into ever growing new businesses and technologies. A tech stock distributing dividends to shareholders instead of reinvesting in new projects would be seen as a mark of failure to innovate, incapacity to grow.

Galanwe··on The dead economy theory
Absolutely not.

For RSUs companies do not purchase at exercise date, they issue new shares (or use previous buybacks).

And for stock options, the employee pays the strike, so it's even a positive cash flow.

Galanwe··on The dead economy theory
> Facebook doesn't get the money when you buy a share of META

Technically no, but in reality yes, because shares are used as currency.

For instance, META does not acquire companies using cash, they use their own shares as payment. The higher the stock price, the lower the dilution.

Same thing for stock options and RSU.

So, it's true that stock prices don't translate 1:1 to cash inflows, but wherever stocks are currency (employee compensation, benefits, acquisitions, etc), it does translate.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
> You are not entering a contract with a long put

Yes you are, and options are complicated. Actually, the mere fact that you think they are "simple insurance" is enough proof to me that you probably don't understand it enough to safely buy one.

> You are buying a contract

Oh right, you've bought a PUT, now the fun part: you have to manage your position/exposure, could you enlighten me how you do that?

Could you explain me why buying a SpaceX PUT in a high IV regime (e.g. soon after IPO) will have it drop 40% when the IV decreases after 1 month, even though price moved in my favor? It should be simple, it's just a simple insurance product right?

Seriously. Someone, likely not super financially literate, ask a simple question about how to neutralize a stock exposure, and your answer is to advise buying options? Just stop.

Galanwe··on The dead economy theory
I thought about that a lot too, and in the end I think it just comes down to stupid economics: What do you want them to do with all this money?

1) Most top US tech companies are flooded of money. Everyone dumps money in the SP500.

2) This money has to go somewhere. You can't just redistribute it as dividends, otherwise it's an admission that you won't grow and giving you more money would be a 0 sum game.

3) So you have to invest it somehow, somewhere.

4) Obviously you can spend that money buying whatever company you can.

5) Once you've bought realistically enough, you just hire more, and people will think that there should be some kind of linear relationship between resources spent and revenue growth.

6) You can also do grand projects, like the metaverse, convert all you software to blockchains, become AI native, etc. and dump billions on these.

So essentially it's all about projecting growth and potential.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
> also don't control the ETF basket

The ETF is this case follows the index, so there's really no surprise.

> I would still probably go with the long put strategy

Just, don't. There is a world of complexity between a simple short, and entering an option contract with non linear pnl.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
What are you talking about? You don't need to touch anything about your ETF. You just have to short a single name on the side.

Also there is no liquidity issue, we're talking SP500 names here, you'll pay GC, which should be around 25bps as the other comment mentions.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
It's not just a short, it's a portfolio of X short + X long. It's effectively canceling perfectly.
Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
> I'd love is some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX

You can just short SpaceX of an amount equivalent to its share of your SP500 holdings. You will have to pay borrowing costs though, but on something that liquid it will be very small.

Galanwe··on I made a million dollar product from my dorm room (2025)
I switched to ZMK circa 2024, and never looked back at QMK. I am the proud owner of a Corne wireless from typeractive, and it's such a beautiful product. The nice!nano are also a welcome addition.

There is a growing community of enthusiasts starting to sell ZMK powered boards from traditionally QMK based designs, so if you're interested, Etsy is where all of this is happening. MochuKeeb is a good example.

Thanks a lot for your part in the journey to modern, wireless custom keyboards Nick!

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