F_J_H

"Don't pay any attention to what they write about you, just measure it in inches"

http://steveblank.com/2009/06/25/convergent-technologies-war...

YRMV.

So, if the "platform" does not exist yet, it may need to be built first, but I suspect many of them already exist. It's interesting to think of what horizontal platforms are being developed, or are becoming more popular, and how you could target a vertical area on top of (or within) it.

I've seen a few discussions recently on Google Glass and the work Microsoft is doing augmented reality area as well, and wonder what vertical products could stem from that over the long term.

    "Live in the future, then build what's missing."

    "Focus on enabling technologies and environmental factors."

However, it is helpful to hear it expressed a different way, and reminds me of something I heard Gary Hoover (of Hoover online fame) say at a conference, which was that in the same way Tsunamis are the result of plate tectonic activity that happens months, weeks, or days in advance, there are things shifting within your industry that could result in "tsunamis" of change. What are they?

It seems like very obvious advice, but it is interesting to sit down and make a concentrated effort to think of what the shifts may be occurring in your industry. Sometimes they are easy to miss in that they are so obvious. (As in "fish were the last ones to discover water...").

Another way to think of it came to me from one of Tim O'Reilly's essays where he describes some key marketing advice he was given, which was to "find a parade and get out in front of it." (He attributes the success of O'Reilly media to getting behind the web and open source in its early days - http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20121002122119-16...) From that perspective, I like to think of what "parades" are happening in my industry, (energy), such as conservationism and environmental responsibility. What happens if/when 75% of the cars on the road are electric vehicles, (and are driverless)? Maybe my car is charged via solar panels or a whisper gen, and drives itself to the store where someone loads it with the groceries I ordered online? What products/services will be needed to support that? What do things look like when homes are net-zero energy, as they are meant to be in California in 2020?

It can be an interesting exercise.

Edit: Typos

Why? Picture this. Someone (likely a politician) crusades hard to have the TSA dismantled, and is successful. No matter how much better the system that replaces it is, there is always a chance that someone slips through and takes down a plane, and 300+ people are killed.

In the throng of people screaming that "something needs to be done to stop this from happening again", who wants to be "that guy" who lobbied to have the TSA dismantled/replaced? Former TSA proponents will jump up and down and scream "See! This is why we can't have nice things!"

I don't think anyone will touch it...

Similar to the advice you read on "creating your own luck", you need to put yourself in situations where "serendipity" can happen more easily. In other words, if you want to become an actor, move to L.A. If you want to work in Finance, hang out in Wall Street, etc. There are of course no guarantees, and of course you can become an actor without living in L.A., and a financial analyst without being on wall street.

If you walk through a bad neighborhood by yourself late at night with a George Costanza like wallet bulging in your back pocket, you increase your chances of being mugged. It won't happen every time, but you are certainly "tempting fate".

So, "walk" in "neighborhoods" where you tempt fate in your favor. Go to meetups. Volunteer at organizations where people are trying to solve important problems. Ask people you find interesting to go for a coffee. Socialize with small business owners. Contribute to open source projects.

There is an interesting Forbes article on "The Four Essential Personality Traits Of Every Entrepreneur", one of which is "Luck-Dominant":

"...luck-dominant founders—which make up more than 25% of founders in the authors’ studies—are men and women whose positivity and intellectual curiosity create circumstances where a positive outcome is more likely. In other words, “they’re lucky by attitude, not by fate.”

(link to article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/meghancasserly/2012/10/11/the-fo...)

I came across the following quote by William S. Burroughs recently:

Happiness is a byproduct of function, purpose, and conflict; those who seek happiness for itself seek victory without war.

Replace "Happiness" with "a start-up idea", and I think you get what pg is getting at:

A Start-up idea is a byproduct of function, purpose, and conflict; those who seek a start-up idea for itself seek victory without war.

I also came across a great post on the relationship between serendipity and success, and is it well worth the read: http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/10/when_success_is_born_out_of_...

I especially enjoyed this bit:

Our mind abhors these serendipitous explanations, and searches for convenient patterns instead. Ask for the keys to career success and you'll get logical explanations, recommendations, pathways and approaches. Then ask someone how he or she became successful and suddenly it becomes a story of serendipitous encounters, unexpected changes in plans, and random consequences. It does not make sense to ignore this basic fact about success any longer.

Here’s one way. It may seem obvious to many, but I think it bears stating.

If you are looking for consulting contracts that pay really well, focus on providing a service that helps companies make money rather than save money. In other words, help grow revenues rather than reduce expenses – people pay much more for that.

Here’s the reasoning: When business managers, executives, etc. are given targets, they typically relate to increasing revenues much more often than reducing expenses. Not surprisingly, increasing revenues is therefore “front of mind” for those with budgets to make it happen, and they see tremendous value in someone who can help them do that. The fact that a little automation in the accounting system will save a data entry clerk a few hours a month – hmmm...maybe next month.

Case in point - I remember reading a comment somewhere from a Google employee who was complaining that at Google, those working on the revenue generation side of the business (i.e. advertising, adwords, etc.) got all the “love and attention” in terms of getting the resources required to get their job done, while others working on more obscure projects had to put up with leftovers. Now I’m not sure if that is actually true at Google, but I wouldn't be surprised as I've seen it at many other companies – the “rain makers” are the darlings with dollars to spend, and the back office ops folks are left to struggle with fewer resources. All injustices aside, find a way to provide something to the rain makers.

The type of work that Patrick does directly improves revenues. If you are a DBA selling tuning services to help companies re-write gnarly queries for example, well, unless a slow performing query/process is directly impacting revenues in some way, it likely is a secondary priority in devops/support where budgets are tight and “learn to live with it” is becoming a way of life.

2. the act of slandering; vilification; defamation; calumniation; derogation: Such vehement aspersions cannot be ignored.

And you? ;-)

I'm reminded of the Oscar Levant quote:

What the world needs is more geniuses with humility, there are so few of us left.

Probably more annoying than the "smartest person in the room" is the person who thinks he is the smartest person in the room...

If someone knows of something similar, please let me know.

I had the same experience as you (college paid for via scholarships), but the scholarships available differ from school to school and community to community. So, not everyone has that as an option.

When funding dries up, even good businesses have a very difficult time raising capital, and it's not uncommon for a "good" business to be unprofitable for a couple of years (or more) as it ramps up. (See Amazon, Twitter, etc.)

Here's an exaggeration to make a point:

“The housing bubble didn’t really hurt anyone who already owned their home, or those who never owned a home in the first place.”

Yes, a tech/start up bubble burst would not have near as much impact as the housing bubble for the reasons you point out, but when you suggest that it won’t hurt “anyone here” (i.e. people who frequent HN), I’m not sure I agree.

Let’s say Angel and VC money dries up, and Series A funding also dries up. You then have a bunch of start ups that don’t get funded at all, or who burn through their first Angel/VC raise, and then can’t get any further funding. They then can’t afford to hire or keep talent (hackers, system admins, designers, etc. – i.e. the people here) and there are only so many positions at companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc.

So, depending on the percentage of people who depend on work from start up, or early stage companies who are not yet profitable and need to rely on further funding to grow, a “bubble burst” could impact people on HN.

Maybe there are a lot of successful start ups that were purposely built (i.e. “forced”), but it seems so many of them just kind of evolved, almost as a by-product. Maybe good start up ideas, and start ups in general, are like happiness; if you expressly seek to find it, it is elusive. However, if you merrily go about your way remaining curious, inquisitive and interested, it finds you.

When trying to repeat what other successful founders have done, it seems wise to keep the works of Matsuo Basho in mind: “Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Seek what they sought.”

Anyway, I had better get back to my idea brainstorming. I’ve found this great mind mapping tool! ;-)

What you said is correct. Said differently (i.e. in a more kind manner), it also would have been a good example of really helpful mentorship.