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Erikun

1,420 karma · joined September 6, 2014

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Erikun··on Scotland starts renewed case for independence
The biggest hurdle for Scotland joining the EU arent the requirements, they'd likely pass those without too much issues. The biggest hurdle is probably Spain who wouldn't want to give the Catalan independence movement a good example.
Erikun··on Scotland starts renewed case for independence
That isnt correct, perhaps "poor" might be a problem depending on what dept Scotland would have after independence, but definetly not small.

Joining criteria are (https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-p...):

* stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;

* a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;

* the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

Erikun··on Scotland starts renewed case for independence
It’s certainly hard to argue that Scotland shouldn’t be allowed to hold a referendum again. Usually I feel that the one they had a few years back should stand but with brexit the situation feels sufficiently changed that the old result feels dated. But at the same time, the lesson should be that a simple majority is not a sufficient result. Either a qualified majority of some sort, with minimum participation threshold, or maybe two referendums with a general election in between sounds about right.
Erikun··on Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?
What a great site, thanks for linking it. I looked up Sweden and, boy, it sure explains why phasing out nuclear gets delayed all the time here.
Erikun··on How Apple overcame its culture of secrecy to create AirPods Pro
What is an "HR Business Partner"?
Erikun··on Twitter Home made me miserable
I deleted my twitter account a couple of years ago but started to read a couple of people on there during the us election and the pandemic. These last couple of months twitter has clearly decided to try to clamp down on people reading without an account (the way instagram did with their website a few years earlier). They have tried a couple of things.

First there was a popup blocking the screen and scrolling telling you to log in or sign up if you clicked on any post, image or other user. At first you couldn't dismiss it. Then they changed so you could dismiss it but it would move you back to the point where you clicked (essentially as a back button). You could get around it by reloading the page instead of dismissing the popup, then you got to the page you wanted. Now they're testing activating the popup after you scroll through the feed a bit with no option to dismiss.

I imagine everyone posting to twitter have no idea this behaviour have been introduced and that twitter is trying to wall their garden. This is especially depressing since there are a number of pandemic related posters (Kai Kupferschmidt among them) who have interesting feeds, but no other communication channels that I know of.

Erikun··on Report from Phase 1 of the Swedish Central Bank's Blockchain Currency Pilot [pdf]
The website for the e-krona project is here. https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/payments--cash/e-krona/
Erikun··on A Fascinating, Sexy, Intellectually Compelling, Unregulated Global Market
Frekonomics' look at the art market, part 1 of 3.
Erikun··on Software Engineering's Greatest Hits [video]
It seems he took the title of a different Fucci 2016 paper, it should say "A Dissection of the Test-Driven Development Process: Does It Really Matter to Test-First or to Test-Last?"

This paper contains both the quote and is done on 39 professionals. This seems like an easy mistake to make and not something I feel has an impact on the trustworthiness of his talk

Erikun··on Ask HN: Are you reconsidering your upcoming Mac purchase?
No, but I am thinking more about if I should stop using cloud services, and not just Apples.
Erikun··on Hottest Temperature Ever – A Crazy Year of Weather
Hardly any vaccinations? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulse_Polio
Erikun··on Universal basic income to be tested in Wales
The Finnish Basic Income Experiment was carried out in 2017–2018. The primary objective of the experiment was to provide information on the effects of a basic income on the target population’s employment, income and use of social benefits. An additional objective was to provide information on the well-being of the recipients of the basic income. 2,000 people who were aged 25–58 and receiving unemployment benefits from Kela in November 2016 were randomly selected to form the treatment group of the basic income experiment. Everyone else who was receiving unemployment benefits at the time formed the control group. The basic income was an unconditional benefit which did not have to be claimed, and for which there were no special conditions. The basic income was paid to the treatment group unconditionally for two years, and was not affected by any income from employment or entrepreneurship. This report includes the results from the sub- studies of the evaluation of the experiment. According to an analysis of the register data, during the one-year assessment period employment in the treatment group on average increased by 6 days more than in the control group. Sub-studies based on survey data analyzed the health, mental well-being, economic situation, trust and experiences with the bureaucracy of the treatment and control groups. With regard to a number of indicators, the well-being of the basic income recipients was better than that of the control group. Qualitative interview research shows, on the one hand, the very different meanings of basic income for one's own employment opportunities and, on the other hand, large differences in the starting points and life situations of basic income recipients. Better opportunities for social participation and increased autonomy were highlighted regardless of changes in one’s own employment. A media analysis found that the basic income experiment was covered in the domestic and international media, above all from an economic and employment perspective. In a population survey measuring support for a basic income, 46 % of respondents agreed or partially agreed with the statement that a basic income should be implemented in Finland.The evaluation of the basic income experiment was carried out by Kela, together with the VATT Institute for Economic Research, the University of Turku, the University of Helsinki, the Labour Institute for Economic Research, the Finnish Central Association for Mental Health and the think tank Tänk.

Abstract of the final Report of the Finnish experiment, mostly in finnish though. https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/1...

Erikun··on The Economic Consequences of Increasing Sleep Among the Urban Poor
I don't know how well it compares to a spanish siesta but the abstract ends with "In contrast, short afternoon naps at the workplace improved an overall index of outcomes by 0.12 standard deviations, with significant increases in productivity, psychological well-being, and cognition, but a decrease in work time."
Erikun··on USA vs. Julian Assange Judgment
TLDR+; No extradition due to Assange's mental health.
Erikun··on Basic Income in Spain to Mitigate Coronavirus Impact
Are you sure? free for me at least.
Erikun··on Map of usage of intensive care beds in Germany
70% would certainly seem to be too high. Data from the Diamond Princess showed 17.9% of infected persons never developed symptoms. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm
Erikun··on Bird lays off hundreds via Zoom call
Probably not, at least not if the generalized version of Parkinson’s law holds. The demand upon a resource tends to expand to match the supply of the resource (If the price is zero).
Erikun··on The next outbreak? We're not ready. Ted talk by Bill Gates (2015)
I feel like the problem with stocking up on material is that it would have to be done before the outbreak even began in China. By mid january, China was vacuuming the market completely for equipment and from there on it has only gotten worse for any country that didnt have domestic production, as countries who did started banning exports.
Erikun··on Lost sense of smell may be peculiar clue to coronavirus infection
” Furthermore, the stability of this virus is worrisome as well. If you put it in aerosol form and keep it in the air, the half-life is several hours; if you drop it on surfaces of copper or cardboard, it could survive about a day. But if it's on steel or plastic surfaces, you could still detect infectious virus after 72 hours, although the infectivity decreases with time.”

Source: Virologist David Ho

https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-da...

Erikun··on GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
More medical personel would be great. Another option would be to train contact tracers, much easier to train than medical personel. That is one of the reasons for Singapore's success, I belive. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51866102
Erikun··on 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic
6 in the 70-79 bracket and one in 80-89, but 70-79 was also the biggest group. https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_crui...
Erikun··on $5000 per violation of price-gouging in CA
Isn't it more likely that regular sellers want to protect their brand, something that the arbitrage seller doesn't care about? After all, the California price-gouging law only takes effect once an emergency has been declared and regular stores, presumably, weren't increasing their price by 20x before that.
Erikun··on $5000 per violation of price-gouging in CA
It also mentioned them making tens of thousands of dollars in profit in a short time.
Erikun··on The Korean Clusters: How coronavirus cases exploded in Korean churches/hospitals
Median incubation time 4 days and interquartile range 2-7 in this study in the New England Journal of Medicine, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
Erikun··on Switzerland Federal Council bans large-scale events
Not sure about Italy, but Imperial college in London did estimates in January for how many in Wuhan were infected based on internationally infected people and the catchment area of Wuhan airport. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/194815/coronavirus-outbreak-...
Erikun··on Ola Bini, Swedish Software Developer with Ties to Assange, Arrested in Ecuador
Swedish media has written about it and the guardian as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/12/julian-assange...

Swedish state television (swedish only)

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/ecuadors-ambassad-i-sveri...

Erikun··on Let’s bring back the Sabbath as an act against ‘total work’
That is a recommendation on public health initiatives, not individual consumption.

"When it comes to policy recommendations, it is notable that the authors recommend public health measures to reduce total consumption at a population level, such as “excise taxes on alcohol, controlling the physical availability of alcohol and the hours of sale, and controlling alcohol advertising”. There is no mention of information campaigns or targeting heavy drinkers, which may be less effective ways of reducing average consumption."

The risks they found are actually very small.

"Let’s consider one drink a day (10g, 1.25 UK units) compared to none, for which the authors estimated an extra 4 (918–914) in 100,000 people would experience a (serious) alcohol-related condition. That means, to experience one extra problem, 25,000 people need to drink 10g alcohol a day for a year, that’s 3,650g a year each. To put this in perspective, a standard 70cl bottle of gin contains 224 g of alcohol, so 3,650g a year is equivalent to around 16 bottles of gin per person. That’s a total of 400,000 bottles of gin among 25,000 people, being associated with one extra health problem. Which indicates a rather low level of harm in these occasional drinkers."

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/the-risks-of-alcohol-again-2...

Erikun··on Ok-Cancel versus Cancel-Ok
Well as to the second question, in the Chauvet cave paintings the animals face both left and right. A bit of a small sample though.
Erikun··on Tesla Doesn’t Burn Fuel, It Burns Cash
I agree that the counter makes no sense. There's just no way to put it into any perspective other than "that's a lot of money for me as a person". The graphics I thought was witty though. Lets face it, Musk does a lot of publicity stunts like selling 20 000 flamethrowers, and using them in the graphics I thought was rather witty. That said, I just don't know what to make of Tesla. The deposits schemes, financials etc, I just can't make my mind up if it is doing good or bad. On the other hand, a cult of personality that worships a guy building rockets, electric vehicles and so on seems preferable to many of the other celebrity cults around today. Lets hope a lot of people don't lose a bunch of money on it, I guess.
Erikun··on Online voting in Finland: Conclusions and recommendations (2017) [pdf]
The report's conclusions are that there is not much to be gained by it, but significant risks. Banking online is a significant convenience, not having to go to a polling station once every four (or so) years is less of one. Also, as the report notes, the issue is mostly about legitimacy, not technology. How to you get people to feel safe that the secrecy of their ballot is kept and that the system isn't compromised and can be audited seem to be the big issues.
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