Scotland starts renewed case for independence
gov.scot
gov.scot
…just be generous to English folks seeking asylum from Tory rule, yeah?
2. A PM who lied to the Queen.
3. Food poverty on the up [1]
5. £350m a week for NHS post Brexit, and yet that was a blatant lie. NHS now struggling with many staff quitting post covid and as a result of increased work load due to brexit.
The list goes on.
[1] British medical journal (https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/347/bmj.f7157/F1.large.jpg)
And now the middle finger to the NI protocol, which is just the current Prime Idiot's move to gather support from the "Fuck the EU!" members of his party so he can again, remain in power, free to booze, fuck around, and taking donations for apartment renovations...
The whole justification for not having a border between Northern and Southern Ireland is "the peace process" which is a euphimism for not upsetting the IRA.
1. A politician being a hypocrite. I'm shocked!
2. A politician who lied. I'm shocked!
3. Seems to be happening in many countries?
5. Nursing and doctor shortages are happening in other countries as well.
https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/european-parliament-a...
One could imagine lots of ways to have a unified planet without one centralized government. The EU is certainly one model you can achieve unification at large without "one huge government" as it consists of many smaller governments coming together.
Personally I don't really agree with your assessment of the EU as a form of that though. In this context I would include something like the EU when talking about larger governments (maybe that's not strictly correct, but it is what I had in mind with my original comment). There are of course lower levels in the EU (i.e. the individual countries) but that's also true for many countries with a central government and smaller regional authorities (e.g. London & Edinburgh).
"The EU is certainly one model you can achieve unification at large without one huge government as it consists of many smaller governments coming together."
That's not really what the EU is. The EU is a One Huge Government that has taken over some of the powers of the Less Huge Governments that Europe already has. It isn't a talking shop or forum for collaboration. It's a government which creates laws and enforces them. The fact that it doesn't control everything yet doesn't make it not a government, and the EU's core supporters are like ivolimmen - they want one world government and see the EU as a step towards it.
There are plenty of models that would allow for a small level of administration globally and local governmental control that is still considerably better than what we have today.
You should work towards stronger union not weaken it.
What I value about current EU is precisely that it cannot just squash dissent by force, even from a single country.
And this often means that the EU can't get anything done on an EU wide level
Many people of smaller nations like Czechs, that regained sovereignty after a long period of subjugation to various powers, do not really want to give it up again so that the French-German axis may have their job easier.
The fact that you once joined an organization does not mean that you must agree with any subsequent development.
Heck, I can say that Hungary voted more frequently in my interest than my government.
The EU is frequently used to push some regulations in favour of big corps that would never pass in any of the national parliaments without a big fight. That's why I'm glad that at least someone sometimes can stop this.
Lately it seems they only cover own ass, while all other states are in agreement.
When only you see a problem its often the case you are the problem not the other way around.
Ps. I say that as a Polish citizen.
Hungary and Poland were the only countries opposing the unlimited migration. Hungary is the only country that pushes back on sanctions that harms us in Germany more than them in Russia. Austria and Netherlands were opposing a huge debt package to fight corona.
> Lately it seems they only cover own ass, while all other states are in agreement.
Maybe state governments are in the agreements, but not the majority of population. In Germany, some topics were truly polarizing, governments frequently voted for topics that had domestic majority against it, and Hungary and Poland voted for what represents the will of German population majority.
On the other hand, in capitalistic economic theory, the only way to get a sane system is if everyone acts only in its own self-interest. Asking humans to do something for "common or higher good" usually leads to one party exploiting the other.
> When only you see a problem its often the case you are the problem not the other way around.
I doubt that in Europe, we ever had that strong consensus between European citizens. It's usually that governments have strong consensus that is not always reflected in the population.
Instead of ditching veto right, I would rather go the other direction, to the more Swiss style direct democracy, where power would be brought back to people, and away from the governments. If citizen could decide on important topics, we would not need veto at all.
> Ps. I say that as a Polish citizen.
As a German citizen, I wish you more power to your citizens, as opposed to EU or polish goverment, even when we have different preferences.
Its terrifying how their every law was to destroy middle and upper middle class.
Its terrifying how polarized and tyrranical their actions towards media and oposition are.
Being totally against immigration is just xenophoby and/or bigotry.
A Chinese citizen would say the exact same thing, countries switched out. Both countries do whatever is in their own best interest, it's naive to pretend otherwise. Now what's in the U.S. best interest might have historically been more aligned with the EU, but that doesn't mean it stays that way.
Additionally this article is from 2007. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/sep/16/iraq.iraqtimel... We are as of today still helping out in Iraq.
>but I just found it odd that the U.S. would be lumped in with China
When SWIFT was transacting with Iran after our negotiations you forced our hand to fit your own geopolitics. You force decisions about nato procurement to favour you (At times Germany has done so too tbh) and your industry then whine we don't spend enough.
Whenever it comes down to it your allies end up being pushed to act like vassals instead (see Japan being forced to do technology transfers to the US, to import US goods, set monetary policy favouring the US,etc in the 70's/ 80's all to essentially bail it out)
Then there's various examples of government sponsored corporate espionage.
Then there's things like our refugee wave resulting political turmoil stemming from our dealings in the middle east and the arab spring after north african countries and co tried in vain to protect their pegs against the dollar.
All in all I do think there's countless opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation and alignment between the US and EU but hell don't act like the US is some saint who never acts in it's own interest. At least with China nobody pretends.
Ps. I think the US rethoric regarding china is laden with hypocrisy. That's not to say China is not authoritarian, etc
Point taken on Iran, I understand that was annoying from the EU perspective and potentially an overplay of America's hand; but I guess I just think that if the EU and the U.S. aren't tightly aligned it will open up more potential activities from China who has shown themselves over and over to be significantly worse "partners" than America.
I don't think blaming the refugee wave on the U.S. is fair, there were a lot more factors at play than just countries unable to achieve a dollar peg, besides wasn't a huge amount of the turmoil (at least politically) from the Syrian refugee crisis, not N. Africa?
> All in all I do think there's countless opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation and alignment between the US and EU but hell don't act like the US is some saint who never acts in it's own interest. At least with China nobody pretends.
Of course the U.S. isn't a saint, but it is a country that does actually try to have some values in its engagements. Does it fail constantly or make deals that I think are awful and work with terrible people? Absolutely, such is geopolitics (although we do often have unforced errors there). But it's such a funny way to equivocate-- America does some bad things but is hypocritical but China is just absolutely terrible and has no qualms about it so both are bad? That makes no sense to me.
True but what defines a strong defence is arbitrary. Buying missiles that we don't even have the platform to fire is not (My country can retrain it's anti air capabilities every few years with the help of another...). Focusing on power projection capabilities to go fight in the middle east has different costs associated with it. The expenses we do are hardly well applied/fitting and often disproportionally favour the US (or other big players as mentioned earlier) as opposed to us. To then hear someone say we are subsidised by the US as if that spending is some form of charity rather than self interest... I am sorry but we don't rely on that >10% US spending to keep Russia out of NATO and the only other conceivable potential threat to EU member states is in NATO. What keeps Russia out of NATO are the nukes and/or conventional collective defence paired with having 7 times the population against a country with an economy smaller than Italy. Meanwhile we spent a lot in Iraq and Afghanistan aiding or perhaps if similarly construed :subsidising US foreign interests.
Also meanwhile 99% of the time where i argue with notably left or right wing people apprehensive about supporting Ukraine, the conversation basically get pushed to include that foreign interventionism with the full expectation that I will defend it in the same breath.
If anything needs work it's not our spending like Trump & co cried about. It's our inter EU political commitment against non direct threats and influence.
Example: Who the fuck cares that Germany is going increase it's military budget so much and spend a shit ton on equipment that'll never see active self defense use?? Who cares about that whilst the likes of Gerhard fucking Schröder sit on the board of Gazprom and the country blocks equipment support from for example Spain from going to Ukraine and plays up an almost comical level of incompetence to not deliver meaningful support.
Meanwhile the likes of France and Turkey are supporting opposing sides in Libya where one side has very strong ties to Putin and the other might help Turkey threaten Cyprus's territorial waters or we can look at Hungary and co doing their best to keep the gas flow going. Hell it's not like LukOil will close up shop here anytime soon either.
And it's not like the US is the adult in the room with all these examples of proverbial headless chickens in the face of the main realistic military threat lest we forget the Exxon deals, the propping up of places like Saudi Arabia as they in turn support Russia, etc.
These webs of self-interests are generally far more orthogonal to our clear and justifiable US-EU shared interests than most of our military spending or lack thereof.
>If you're trying to point out that there hasn't been a war in the EU while it's been under America's security cordon, point well made.
Why would there be a war in the EU? We're not exactly at each others throat anymore and it has it's own mutual defence clause. Hell remember some of DeGaulles reasoning for vetoing the UK from joining?
>Point taken on Iran, I understand that was annoying from the EU perspective and potentially an overplay of America's hand; but I guess I just think that if the EU and the U.S. aren't tightly aligned it will open up more potential activities from China who has shown themselves over and over to be significantly worse "partners" than America.
Nobody here sees China as partners in the same way outside of loose use of terms like trade partners which gets used for about every country on earth bar maybe north korea.
The US and we also need to realise we need to be a better "partners" than china in many scenarios outside of Europe. Americans especially like to harp on about predatory lending and the US even bribed african journalists to go of on it but at the end of the day China has been a less predatory lender than the IMF and the later is even forced to give african countries more breathing room due to the existence of the former as an alternative. I fully expect that China would be a lot lot worse if faced with less scrutiny and a similarly big ability to force hands. It only cuts it's losses in the face of a worse alternative... Luckily as it is it that competition exists and the US should probably adjust accordingly just the same to the benefit of those in the middle.
>I don't think blaming the refugee wave on the U.S. is fair, there were a lot more factors at play than just countries unable to achieve a dollar peg, besides wasn't a huge amount of the turmoil (at least politically) from the Syrian refugee crisis, not N. Africa?
I don't wish to point it solely on the US. It's just one of many factors but it's just one example of such influence that Americans generally don't consider. They (as do most) get a dumbed down news image painting a simple story of protests for democracy. Not a nuanced in depth view showing a mix of local nepotism, foreign influences, of cost of living skyrocketing being a trigger point and how that relates US monetary policy affecting other countries stemming from a relationship that has essentially subsidised US imports for decades and is protected by and a core part of it's foreign policy.
With someone who is honest and open about such relationships and what goes on to sustain them i don't have a strong urge to discuss. After all if we can agree on the fundamentals it comes down to a difference of opinion or personal factors that are hard for me to affect. Maybe that is one of my bad character traits. For example I have someone close to me like that supportive of a seriously authoritarian state...I dislike that but there was never an argument about whether it was authoritarian or the reasoning behind it's foreign policy so...I just leave it at that. There's no cognitive dissonance tied to someone plainly stating their self interest, selfishness or otherwise limited scope of support. When someone comes up with a holier than thou attitude and misconstrues the situation in their favour tho it sets me off.
And for the record I don't think the US, Russia or china for that matter are at all alone in this kind of stuff. Why France and the UK were so gung ho about Lybia deserves some more focus for example. Oil exploitation deals, political self-interests/nepotism and other things not happily spoken about openly are not limited superpowers after all.
>Of course the U.S. isn't a saint, but it is a country that does actually try to have some values in its engagements. Does it fail constantly or make deals that I think are awful and work with terrible people? Absolutely, such is geopolitics (although we do often have unforced errors there). But it's such a funny way to equivocate-- America does some bad things but is hypocritical but China is just absolutely terrible and has no qualms about it so both are bad? That makes no sense to me.
You yourself try to use these things as arguments tho? Even if the argument is pulled down to that of lesser evil it doesn't really do you any favours (see earlier article about the 1.2 million deaths for one) Also I don't see those values in it's engagements. Even when faced with a more clearly defined direct opponent of the past in the form of the USSR you don't get to champion certain values as something giving direction to your sides actions whilst at the same time supporting Pol pot, assassinating democratic leaders, etc. For those who are aware of the contradictions formed it has a backlash effect which is why today we see so many leftists picking unlikely sides or choosing non-alignment even when it does not make sense. See for example the imo silly takes of Vafourakis, Corbyn, melencon, etc regarding Ukraine.
I (and probably the previous commenter) don't want to move away from mutual benefit and interests regardless of all that but we do want more sovereignty. That's where the US get's put on the shelf with outside forces just like China (which has comparatively less influence). Nobody likes being in the position of an 80's japan or so because that's not how partnerships work at all.
In 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, NATO declared that Ukraine (and Georgia) will one day become a part of NATO. I read that France and Germany were against that decision for the fear of enraging Russia, but the US forced their opinion. Russia was enraged, and this is how we got to this war. My take from this war is that it's not always a good thing to let US orchestrate the security interests of Europe. Without US forcing their way through that summit, we might not have a war in Europe today.
Right about now, the US was a major factor in Euromaidan, in an attempt to weaken both Russia and the EU (say hello to Mrs. Nuland, will ya?), which directly paved the way to today's Ukraino-Russian war.
Those $100B in arms Germany is about to purchase will be that much less spending on social programs.
I want to point out that if we wouldn't get involved in foreign wars, we would not need that either. Last time we had a massive uptick of taxes for military spending (in the 1910s), we built a fleet to battle the British Navy (and we're still paying those taxes today).
On top of that, there are a lot of principles on civil and human rights that are core the EU that the US doesn't subscribe too; they're still not member of the ICC, they rarely prosecute their own war criminals, use torture, extralegal assassination, and have a tendency to strong-arm other nations, including European allies, into doing what the US security apparatus wants.
Make no mistake, when tensions with totalitarian dictatorships like China or Russia rise, the EU will always jump into bed with the US, because the flawed humanitarian values of the US are still better than none at all, and we're still allies. But the US is not the beacon of human rights and democracy that it once was, or was presented as. The EU should be more independent and champion this values independently from the US. And that should include criticism when the US fails to live up to those values.
Once some of the EUs more insane policies are forced on countries the desire to leave will spread.
> Veto rule is no way to govern a large group, since you only have to bribe a single member to cripple the whole.
Are you saying there is a corruption issue right now?
With majority rule (size TBD) a handful of countries will ride roughshod over others. Enjoy centrally set tax rates
The currently discussed quorum is 55% of the EU countries representing at least 65% of the EU population. There's a neat voting calculator here https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/voting-system/... where you can figure out how majorities could work or be blocked. It's a pretty reasonable voting mechanism where small countries can block the vote if they group up, but also larger countries with substantial share of the population can as well.
Fact remains that larger countries with larger populations carry a larger weight - but individual countries can't hold the EU hostage any longer (Even Germany with the largest population share can't block a vote alone)
Also, the EU doesn't set taxes. It requires some minimum on specific taxes to prevent a race to the bottom (corporate taxes), but pretty much all taxes are set by the states.
If you have followed Hungary's trajectory under Orban it is pretty obvious that there are corruption issues. Not that Hungary is the only country affected, it's just the most obvious
I voted remain. But the brexiteer argument was that the EU is NOT just a trading bloc and has conspiratorial designs on further reduction in national sovereignty. Indeed the EU commission are seeking this right now and have plans to campaign for it.
The remain campaigners and media denied this. They denied even that the EU wanted a military.
The responses to my question indicate that these people support further reductions in national sovereignty to be handed over to EUP and EUC. Tax setting powers and foreign policy powers included.
It literally proves the Brexit supporters correct.
Right now, we have governments corrupted by Chinese influence (e.g. by ports and other infrastructure being bought up in Greece and Italy), by Russian influence (just look at Hungary's Orban blocking EU sanctions) or by autocratic/fundamentalist politicians (Hungary, Poland, very nearly France).
Personally, I believe that the US will again fall victim to Trumpian populism in this year's elections and in 2024 they will either re-elect Trump or someone he has groomed to be his puppet. At that point, the US will cease to be an ally that the European Union can rely on, and we will have to be able to stand up to Russia and China - which is going to be impossible if the above-mentioned member states will always threaten to sabotage anything.
We need an urgent reform of the entire EU foundation: the veto powers have to go, the European Parliament needs the right to initiate laws (currently, only the Commission has that right), and there must be a way to suspend governments that grossly violate core European values.
So, as an EU citizen: Let's get rid of these.
It's why I felt the Brexit argument about sovereignty and being forced into things was so spurious. The worst example of an EU rule we were 'forced into' I could find was some food labels (which BTW we still use). As long as a country is smart about what it does or doesn't opt into, there's plenty of scope to chart your own course within the wider EU program.
How much did you look? Or did you find examples of rules the UK was forced into and decide you agree with them.
Here's an example of why the opt-outs were never reliable, like so much else about the EU's supposed democratic mechanisms.
When the European Convention on Human Rights was written - with major input from the UK - it was meant as a general statement of principle, and is thus filled with vague and contradictory language. It was never meant to be law. Many decades later the EU decided it should be transformed into binding law on every EU member. The UK and Poland quite sensibly pointed out that this would go badly and it would be impossible to predict the consequences. So they negotiated an opt-out.
The opt-out was called Protocol 30 and is written in the plainest and clearest English the negotiators could write. It even restates the same thing twice "for the avoidance of doubt". It appeared to contain no loopholes. Nonetheless, just a few years later the ECJ passed a ruling that the opt-out was void. They simply annulled it and because EU membership means accepting ECJ supremacy, that was the end of the "opt-out". Overnight, EU human rights law took effect in the UK too: exactly the thing the government thought it had prevented.
To rub salt in the wound, the case before the court was to do with sending an "asylum seeker" back to Greece under the Dublin Convention. This was a now dead part of EU law that stated the country that decides to allow an asylum seeker into the EU must process them. The ECJ decided that actually it didn't like this rule, because it was "unfair", and so annulled that too along the way, with the justification that Greece was such a hellhole it would infringe his human rights to send the asylum seeker back. Again, nobody reasonable saw that coming and the rules as written just evaporated the moment they came into conflict with EU ideology.
The history of the EU is full of stories like this. When you learn enough about it, you eventually realize that the treaties and rules are meaningless. It doesn't matter how clearly everyone seems to understand an agreement, tomorrow they might have come up with some Kafka-esque justification for why it didn't actually mean what everyone said it meant. These changes always seem to be to the benefit of the EU institutions themselves, not the people.
Such a system of government can never be accountable or trustworthy. Law has to be interpreted as written, not simply discarded the moment it becomes inconvenient. As such the Brexit supporters were right to claim the opt-outs were meaningless. Especially given the pro-EU sentiment of much of the establishment.
https://www.google.com/maps/@53.1969993,5.7943724,3a,75y,247...
Scottish folk seem to appreciate the gesture. :)
Not judging, I'm honestly curious why you didn't want them to be independent and thought that, "as a Brit" it was your position to have an opinion on Scotland's independence other than "whatever they want"?
Me, Australian living in England.
Note that it's an open question if the Scots economy would remain worse per capita, not disagreeing there is/was pain ahead in transition.
The best thing is that Slovaks had to stand on their own feet and their nationalists slowly had stop blaming everything on Prague. This kind of whiny nationalism embodied by then-prime minister of Slovakia Vladimir Meciar is somewhat disgusting and I can see its softer version in Scotland right now.
The worst thing is that yes, our international weight has gone down significantly.
But there was customs union between CZ and SK even after the split. I cannot imagine the economic pain if the former federation was suddenly divided by a hard border, as Scotland and England would be.
It doesn't have to be, even if Scotland was part of EU and not England.
UK and Spain/EU negociated maintaining some of the Schengen rules for the Gibraltar/Spain border despite its status still being disputed by Spain and a bumpy history. There is no reason Scotland and rest of UK cannot have a treaty allowing soft border.
"Remain" is doing a lot of work here. Scotland runs a sizeable deficit with the rest of the union and with the decline of North Sea oil revenues that will only increase. Of course that might not "remain", but leaving the UK and then joining the EU is going to create a 5-10 year period of turbulence as well.
Still, there's more important things than GDP.
Smaller vs larger has arguments on either side. I think when you’re talking about major world powers there’s an appeal to not downsizing.
> it was your position to have an opinion
I suppose I could have pretended that I didn’t have an opinion on it, but I did. The important part is that I didn’t have a vote so my opinion wasn’t anything other than my opinion.
Spain parliament is against unilateral declarations of independence.
For background, it's because the Spanish government is afraid that recognizing independence movements legitimizes the Catalonian independence movement in their own country.
Very convenient of them isn’t it?
But it’s always been a separate country, and people are sovereign over history so it’s their choice.
Would be nice if there was a Common Travel Area with the UK afterwards, though.
1. Because I enjoy living in a country that has the Scots in it - without Scotland the country would be diminished, less interesting and more insular.
2. Generally, I think fracturing is a bad thing. I wanted to stay in the EU for similar reasons.
This isn't to say that I don't think that Scots should have self determination, just that I would be sad if they went.
I imagine some Australians would feel the sanme if - say - New South Wales decided to become an independent country
Edit: just to clarify, that was meant as a good-natured ribbing. We’d definitely miss Queensland. Mostly Noosa.
I am undecided on independence, but clearly part of the calculus is how it effects matters of concern to the rest of the UK. Consider what is to me, the following con and pro:
(1) Scotland is more left-wing than the rest of the UK and its secession would condemn the rest of the union to indefinite right-wing government.
(2) The UK's nuclear subs would have to be restationed, but there isn't a suitable harbour anywhere in the rest of the UK, creating an opportunity for it to be scrapped.
Scotland's voters cannot influence the vote in England, under any circumstances.
If you want rid of the Tories, you have to teach England not to vote for the Tories.
Scottish voters only rarely influence the outcome of elections to the Westminster parliament, because even thought they vote differently, they only make up about 10% of the GB population (Northern Ireland has different political parties). Almost always, whatever the English electorate votes for, Scotland gets, even when voters in Scotland vote differently.
In the few exceptions where England voted Tory but got Labour because of Scottish votes, how was that fair on England?
You can always say that if one region that voted for the winning party in a close election hadn't, the outcome would have been different. I don't understand how that's unfair, it's inherent in the arithmetic of majoritarian democracy. You could say the same thing about London or the northwest, which both err leftwards. Unless you're starting off with the idea that Scotland and England are fundamentally different units? Which begs the question.
In 2017, if Scotland didn't elect 13 Conservatives to Westminster then Theresa May would not have been able to form a government with the DUP. If it also didn't elect 4 Liberal Democrats then Theresa May would not have been able to form a government even if she somehow managed to establish a three-way power-sharing agreement with the DUP and the Liberal Democrats. In that event May probably wouldn't have been able to form a government, and there would have been new elections. And remember, May was in abysmal straits at the time.
> You're very carefully dodging the main point
Well, the 'point' wasn't a response to the existing conversation. It was a random interpolation, and I didn't find it very remarkable. In a Parliament of 650 seats no randomly selected bloc of 59 constituencies is likely to play a deciding role in the outcome. It will happen sometimes, but not often. But why would it be otherwise? Of course, if you start off with the belief that Scotland is an independent entity that merits complete self-determination, then that will be a problem. But that begs the question, again.
That's not what we were talking about, which is that Scotland consistently votes to the left. And there is no way we can get a left-wing government, because England votes to the right. And it kind of doesn't matter that we seem to have picked the SNP, because even if we chose Labour it'd still not make a difference because England votes Tory and likely will do for the forseeable.
> In a Parliament of 650 seats no randomly selected bloc of 59 constituencies
This isn't a randomly selected bloc. This is very well defined and distinct territory - which is the topic of this ENTIRE article we're discussing might I add - so I don't know why you'd play daft and pretend otherwise.
> But that's contradicting the original point
You have said there's a contradiction, but have not said what it is. I have no idea what you think it is.
> Scotland consistently votes to the left. And there is no way we can get a left-wing government, because England votes to the right.
It is obviously possible for the UK to elect a left-wing government. I don't know why you think otherwise.
> This isn't a randomly selected bloc
My point is that there is no reason to expect a bloc of 59 constituencies to consistently decide the outcome of general elections. That is not in and of itself necessarily a problem. You need further, independent arguments to show why it is a problem for Scotland.
So you said Scotland moves the UK left. We said Scotland can't move the UK left, England is too Tory and too big. You said, but wait Scotland giving 13/59 seats to the Tories seats helped deliver Theresa May to victory. Wat.
> It is obviously possible for the UK to elect a left-wing government. I don't know why you think otherwise.
Again, that is entirely up to England and their best hope is Labour who don't seem particularly interested in either winning or shifting left. Hence our frustration.
> My point is that there is no reason to expect a bloc of 59 constituencies to consistently decide the outcome of general elections ... You need further, independent arguments to show why it is a problem for Scotland.
It would be weird if we "consistently decided" the outcome of elections, but I didn't say that. And please don't make me list all the reasons why Scotland isn't simply 59 constituencies, or even a region like Yorkshire. Absolutely no shade towards Yorkshire, it is a lovely place but I think we both know the difference.
I honestly think you might just be getting a kick out of winding up a Scot. If you were then, well I hope you had fun :) If not then I'm sorry I'm really not trying to be a dick. This might be something that's more based on what you identify your nationality as. If you consider yourself as "British" first, and "English" second (or, as is common British which equals English) then what I am saying will obviously not resonate at all. For me my nationality is "Scottish" - "British" is just an entry in my passport, it's not a thing I feel I particularly identify with. I get the impression you're a leftie overall, so whatever happens re indyref2 I think we're on the same side.
That hasn't happened. The UK gets the government England votes for.
(The first part of this is a side-effect of UK governments since the late 1980s blaming their own unpopular public policies on the EU, aided and abetted by certain elements of the British media who made bank by painting the EU as some kind of continental political supervillain bent on tormenting the UK, rather than a political process the UK had full participation in. One of those most prominent of those journalists being one Boris Johnson ...)
2005, largest party in Scotland was Labour, Labour won the UK election. same for 2001, 1997, 1974 (both elections), 1966, 1964.
Until recently Scotland always voted Labour, and Labour didn't always win. But you could say the same about most Northern English cities, that doesn't mean they should form a new country.
There are four nations in the UK (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland).
But England has roughly 90% of the population of the UK. So what England votes for in an all-nations referendum, the rest of the UK gets.
England voted for Brexit by a narrow-ish majority. But Scotland voted against Brexit by a huge margin -- 62/38, or approximately 3:2.
Ironically, the year before the Brexit referendum there was a Scottish independence referendum where "remain part of the UK" won, 55/45. One of the promises the remain campaign made was that staying in the UK was the only way to guarantee Scotland could stay in the EU.
So there's a strong sense here in Scotland that we were misled, and presented with a bait-and-switch last time round.
Finally, Scotland has a very different political climate from England, with a much weaker far right, stronger far left, and a dominant centre left government. While since 2017, England has increasingly drifted towards the far right.
I’m not sure there’s any significant ‘far left’ in Scotland. What groups are you thinking of?
There’s also of course a very large nationalist component.
How far left do you want to go? Cenfuegos press was Scottish, that's a former angry brigade member.
The point being made here is Scotland has a socialist history and has had explicitly socialist candidates elected to parliament in recent history. Like.. 2003-2007. I'd hesitate to call it dead just yet.
I think it’s pretty unreasonable to call these people ‘far left’. I don’t think they’re planning to take up arms like the IRA for example.
Or did they try to subvert capitalism by forcing half+1 workers representative on every company boards?
There is not a lot of far left ideas left to implement. Societally, there is basically nothing left since women are allowed to vote and segregation ended. Socially, it is impossible to advance without political or economic far leftism. So this only leave political far left and economic far left.
But right now radical left == far left for most. Worse, right now in France, a lot of people really think the reformist left is the far left, and the rest believe they are radicals. Saner, but still wrong. This is mindblowing, but i am not a professional historian or political scientist so it doesn't really matter to me, i won't loose any sleep. It just says a lot about how low our political culture fell. They aren't even anticapitalists nor they push for worker ownership. And i've read today that the overton window was pushed to the left?
One thing still that can explain this: it seems that the 19th century history lessons were erased from our western memories. And even the years between WW1 and WW2 are not that clear for western europeans.
As an economist, this is far from far left -- it's a fairly middle-of-the-road policy that is used in market economies that are more stable successful than the UK's, e.g. Germany. (And at 33% representation, it is the default across western Europe, where you would be laughed at if you tried to characterise them as far-left...)
1. "far-right beliefs that centre on religious and ethnic hatred"
2. or, "a desire to become an independent nation"
In this case when people say the SNP is nationalist it's the second - their policy is that Scotland should be an independent country. For what it's worth they seem to have a strong pro-immigration stance[0] and a belief in racial equality[1], which are usually things type #1 nationalists are heavily against - so take from that what you will.
[0] - https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what-is-the-snp-s-policy-on-...
[1] - https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what-actions-are-the-snp-tak...
I've never specifically associated it with neither left nor right because in my country we have both right and left wing nationalist movements. Yes, far right nationalism is often fascism, nazism, jingoism, etc. but this isn't the only type of nationalism, and we don't use nationalism as a synonym for nazism/fascism, except when speaking specifically in the context of right wing nationalist groups.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETA_(separatist_group) 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers%27_Party
UKIP and BXP disintegrated because their more competent members colonized the Conservative Party, which is now much more radical and far-right than it was under Cameron.
The only surviving cabinet minister from Cameron's era (2010-2016) is Michael Gove. The rest are all new faces with far right credentials and a commitment to the hardest of hard Brexits.
I'm not sure what your definition of far right is but that statement is quite far from the truth.
1. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/oct/20/bnp-members... "...firm but voluntary incentives for immigrants and their descendants to return home".
Irrespective of the colour of her skin, her actions are those of the far right.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/10/uk-deportati...
This will be challenged at the court of appeal and will, eventually, be found a breach of international law.
So yes, the policy is unlawful _in fact_ but the legal process needs to catch up to that.
So it is not illegal.
This doesn’t mean they’re legal, it means the courts won’t stop those individuals from being deported while the legal case for the policy is being argued. The decision to grant, or not, an injunction is not in itself a judgement on the underlying policy. The court did the former, not the latter.
The English courts haven’t done this yet, they just said they won’t issue injunctions to prevent certain deportations.
This does seem logically consistent to me, just trying to understand your position better.
Whether I think it’s legal is based on what the policy is, whether it was passed into law by Parliament (in this case, there’s no Act of Parliament), what legal experts have said, whether it’s been tested by the courts.
You know, how most sensible people make decisions: they look at the information available and make a decision based on that.
- it might still violate the Human Rights Act
- it’s still a matter for debate whether Rwanda is safe for refugees
Just reading one Act isn’t enough because real life is complicated.
It being a matter for debate whether Rwanda is safe is, I think, not something the SC is going to rule on.
It violating the Human Rights Act seems to be the only real issue for the SC then? Again, I just wonder whether this policy is likely to be illegal under that Act given that the relevant clause says "No one shall be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment”. I just doubt that deportation would fall under torture, inhuman, or degrading treatment _in the spirit of this Act_. I agree that this policy is immoral but kind of doubt that the SC is going to find it tantamount to torture. But maybe there are other arguments here that I'm unaware of?
I guess my legal basis is precedent.
Forgive me if I find your entire premise suspicious and decline the opportunity to debate further.
E.g. my country had thousands of „refugees“ hoping over border from Belarus last year. Last time I saw statistics, not even 1% was eligible for „refugee“ status. Even skipping the part that, according to international law, refugee is legit for the first safe country.
You can’t because they don’t exist. There is no obligation to seek asylum in the “first safe country.” This is a common trope trotted out by right-wing mouthpieces which is where I’m assuming you got the rest of your “facts.”
For EU, there's Dublin agreement.
Your first sentence is irrelevant because this applies to refugees claiming asylum.
Rwanda in particular is an odd choice if you are genuinely concerned about the well-being of people who are fleeing persecution, given the UK government travel advice for its own citizens.
It is also a very expensive choice (about the cost of giving them free food and accommodation in an average bit of Hull for over 2 years); but even in its own terms, it does not appear to have changed, nor is it likely in the future to change, the minds of the extremely small number of asylum seekers who have not been put off the UK by virtue of it being a damp sheep-filled rock in the North Atlantic where they will be banned by law from seeking employment.
What percentage of asylum seekers in the UK were eligible for asylum?
Even using “granted” as a proxy for “eligible”, hard to tell as every source I found contradicts all the others, somewhere between 25 and 75 percent.
However, this isn’t the right question, for two reasons.
First: The number you want to compare against is the people whose minds were changed by the latest policy. Given how few people were seeking asylum in the UK even before this, the maximum is already low.
Second: this policy does not improve the expected accuracy of government judgement regarding the legitimacy of any given claim.
You are throwing around "far right" as a slur in this discussion and that doesn't address facts or the truth of the matter.
I’ve already explained why it’s far right policy but let me explain in simpler words:
Only black and brown people are sent to Rwanda under this scheme. White Ukrainians are not. That’s why it’s a far right scheme. One might even call it racist.
Calling it “nativism” would be inappropriate because that would make it seem like a thing that needs a label. To the contrary, that’s just how most societies are. What we need a label for are the small minority of folks who feel the opposite way.
It can be both simultaneously.
> the desire of Indians to have their country without other people in it
It's a bit more than that though. I don't think you know enough, sorry.
At the end of the day, Bangladesh exists because Bangladeshis wanted a country for Bangali Muslims. Most Bangladeshis subscribe to that core premise. So it’s bizarre to me when people attack Britons upset about immigration from Bangladesh using accusations of “racism.” The Brexiter and the average Bangladeshi are ideologically on the same ground. Their differences arise due to conflicting interests, not conflicting ideologies.
Except you forgot to include the part where Greater Pakistan military overturned the democratically elected Bengali prime minister, so that Bhutto could hold onto power as Bengalis are unfit to lead. You also forgot to mention that Pakistani military killed a million plus Bangladeshis.
Please point out where the EU sent in an army to kill a million Brits.
You make so many bad faith arguments, its really nauseating to sit around correcting all of your Gish Gallops.
Waiting to hear from you how the independence of African nations and the overturning of Apartheid was an act of racism/ethnocentrism by black people against white people.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31348078
Rayiner is an ex Muslim, currently Christian, brown Bangladeshi immigrant to USA who wants the brown people to leave the United States - so that white people can have a white United states - just like "Indians/Bangladeshis want a country for themselves" a need that Rayiner made up on behalf of the citizens of India and Bangladesh.
Significantly, Rayiner excludes himself from the list of brown people who need to leave USA. I have heard of Jewish Nazis and watched the Clayton Bigsby comedy sketch- but it is surreal to interact with someone like this online.
Instead of white, he uses the word "culture" which is the hip dog whistle in urban circles.
In fact, it is easy to distinguish political far right from political far left. Both wants to remove/weaken the institutions. One will push for more personal power(aka: strengthen executive, weaken judicial and legislative power (you can add push media concentration). The other will push towards revocative referendums, random selection for public committee, and overall a weakening of the executive power (refund/divide the police and stuff). As long as with stay within economic center (basically modern capitalism shades).
If you don't think moving toward a less republican government is enough, we can go historically: a marker of far right is treating/talking about the country like a living organism.
I'm talking myself into believing that India is already far right, i should stop arguing :/
Javid, as Home Secretary, stripped a teenager of her British citizenship, leaving her stateless and stranded somewhere in Iraq or Syria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shamima_Begum
There's an interesting discussion to be had about whether a government official can strip someone of their citizenship (even though in the UK it seems to be part of their powers under the Nationality Act) - it's not correct to frame this emotionally under "deported a teenager" when there are specific issues at play here. Same with slandering anyone who is not politically aligned with you as "far right".
Bangladesh is an officially socialist country. You’re just defining “far right” to include everyone who disagrees with a narrow view of immigration.
Regarding your sibling comment: is Bangladesh “racist” against Bangladeshis for not taking her? What an absurd smear.
You’re making another false equivalence with Bangladesh when Begum was born and raised in the U.K. and had never been to Bangladesh. And then trying to use that in bad faith to insinuate things I never said.
And it’s not a false equivalence. Bangladesh has special rules for return of children of people of Bangladeshi origin. My brother was born in Virginia but could travel back to Bangladesh without meeting the usual immigration conditions by showing proof of our parent’s birth in Bangladesh. Begum was in the same position. But Bangladesh isn’t as sympathetic to terrorists as some folks in the UK.
- Liz Truss (current Foreign Secretary) was SoS for DEFRA under David Cameron.
- Sajid Javid (current Health SoS) was BEIS SoS under David Cameron.
- Grant Shapps (current Transport SoS) was Minister for Housing under David Cameron and later party chairman.
- Brandon Lewis (current SoS for Northern Ireland) was Minister for Housing under DC.
- Ben Wallace (clearly ultra right wing (/s), and SoS for Defence), Minister for Northern Ireland under DC.
I don't think this is an exhausive list, these are just the SoSs I can think of off the top of my head. Your statement is just so untrue it just makes me think you don't know much about UK politics and don't really care enough to even google your "facts".
What does that even mean? That anyone who wasn't a member of the SWP in their youth is automatically a closet fascist?
The fact that homosexuality isn't as controversial as it once was doesn't preclude their authoritarian nature.
It's not a boogeyman, it's part of the reality.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/world/europe/russian-mone...
Russia is involved and dangerous.
- Take a bunch of Russian money - Hang out with a bunch of Russians - Ignore the recommendations of your national security apparatus to appoint Russians to permanent positions in your upper house - Employ a bunch of people who have ties to Russian interests. - Delay investigations into how your government didn't do anything to prevent Russian interference in a national referendum.
People make the completely illogical conclusion that you're somehow sympathetic to Russian interests.
Further reading: https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2022/mar/21/butler-to-the-...
Yet I keep hearing about Russians.
Now, UKIP had existed before Farage, and it existed after Farage, but as with a typical far right party it's full of nutters who don't know which part of the message you can say out loud, so it's unelectable. Indeed, in actual UK parliamentary elections even Farage was unelectable, which is why he got into the whole "Brexit" thing because EU elections are seen as less important yet they're also multi-member PR so you can get 20% of the vote in a four seat region and expect to come away with a seat even though the vast majority of people in that region hated you.
Mostly though, for Farage this is and always was a scam. So the subsequent parties unlike UKIP were founded from the outset as scam operations e.g. "The Brexit Party" was a private company, owned by Farage and co., profits for the owners not members (indeed for ages you couldn't "join" that party), and paid for by the candidates who Farage then promptly sold out because it was convenient for him personally. You should see all that family of parties as just "The Nigel Farage Party" much more so than e.g. Republicanism is "The Donald Trump Party" because while you're not going to see Republican leadership actually say Trump is a piece of shit any time soon, they'll be here in ten years and he won't whereas the Farage parties without Farage just wither away and die.
Anyway, my point is, the popular UKIP was just the Farage Party, it's primarily about putting your money in Farage's wallet and the bigotry is a side show, without Farage that's the main event.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people...
True they aren’t all far right, but they do capitalise on decisive policies to invigorate their core supporters.
[1]:https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61791994
[2]:https://news.sky.com/story/a-mess-unrealistic-doctrine-of-ne...
[3]:https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56400751
[4]:https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/uk/scottish-court-uk-parliame...
It's interesting times when protecting borders from illegal immigration is seen as „far right“. It's not „far right“ rising, it's some people pushing Overton window extremely to the left.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/denmark-talks-with-rwan...
Asylum-seeking is not illegal immigration.
Economic migration under the guise of asylum seeking is though. And pretending that all the people who make the attempt to gain Asylum in the UK are legitimate non-economic migrants is absurd.
Correct. As is murder, theft, etc. I don't think anything in my comment suggested they're not?
I can only imagine that if not for horrible optics, UK would send them to Australia.
But oh well, I guess if your dream is to resurrect the British Empire, having a foreign penal colony is one of the requirements.
From the point of view of Africans, we see this as a Rwanda led initiative to take care of refugees in a country that is safe, and in an environment that is closer to their homelands. Although in the past Rwanda has had is troubles but … so did Ireland and the UK on different scale. Rwanda of today is a different place, and the current president has long experience in handling refugee situations and defusing the natural tensions of people in a refugee crises.
Is it absolutely necessary for refugees to leave to go to a different continent, to live on an island where they will forever look like an “other” and have a culture and weather that is totally alien to them?
There should be more to this equation than the thought of sending people to the most prosperous country that they can.
Everyone that learns about the Overton window is immediately convinced the other side has been pulling it in their direction for years.
But you're talking about Denmark and I know nothing about Danish domestic policies - which is why I was intentionally broad in my wording.
The Overton window is poorly named. It's an irregularly shaped blob rather than a rectangular frame. Some things can move in different directions at different times.
This has indeed happened.
1) https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/old-poster-sparks...
The Tory party has absorbed the UKIP/EDL/etc vote. It rules by populism alone at this stage.
There dan also be an anti-rational or anti-scientific aspect. And as an old history prof lectured, the political spectrum is not linear it’s a circle. The far ends turn out to be the same part of the circle. Power for the in group and problems for the rest. Read animal farm.
Being "on the right" is about policy. Someone on the right believes in democracy, freedom, capitalism, human rights, etc. They hold policy positions such as lower taxes, controlled immigration, and greater punishment for criminals. These policy positions put them in opposition to those on the left.
Someone "on the right" is not a fascist, and is not nearer being a fascist than someone "on the left". Fascism means the abolition of human rights, democracy, free capitalism, and everything "the right" believes in.
It's common to cherry pick little policy points from previous facsict states and use that as evidence that the right is facsict. "Hitler limited immigration, the Tories want to limit immigration, the Tories are fascist!!!!". That makes no sense. "Mao raised taxes, Biden wants to raise taxes, Biden is literally a communist!!!".
Facsism is not about policy. It is a fundamentally different, totalitarian, way to structure a society.
How about: leaders <- government <- owners <-> workers -> government -> leaders. Which I can’t format in a circle. And the presence or absence of “for all” can be a tell about where on the political spectrum people or groups sit.
It’s generally accepted that the red states sit to the right vs. the blue states and the us sits to the right of Western Europe. There’s a spectrum of countries as there’s a spectrum of states (or provinces in Canada). The “political middle ground” can be constructed from this set and then decorated with secular or religions states from elsewhere throughout.
In what world? :-))
I made no such argument. Fasicm isn't associated with the actual, modern day right wing of politics.
This is why "far right" is such a slippery and nefarious term. It allows you to conflate right wing politics and facsism.
If you think the Tories are fascist, then make that argument. Don't hide behind this newspeak.
There are many possible axes to divide politics, in many (but not necessarily all) conservative politics and fascism tends to be projected to similar spaces and Soviet-style communism and socially-progressive politics to the same.
Once you start looking at multiple of these at the same time, things do tend to look quite different.
The Chinese Communist Party has all the stuff you listed here.
If you look at various media outlets, their own definition of far-left or far-right varies so much that you can end up being labeled as both very easily.
Another issue would be cultural aspects and you will find what is far-left or far-right will vary country to country and with that. Subjective labels have and always will be a can-of-worms.
> By any reasonable definition England is currently governed by the far right.
These can both be true, IMHO you're talking about different things - 1) the position of the electorate and 2) the position of the government.
And the growing gap between them.
Rwanda is a country with a recent successful history of rehabilitating refugees, and the president reached out to offer a home to those who need it.
For geography alone, the UK would be a better destination for the flood of Ukrainian refugees coming in, where as African asylum seekers would be better served by a country close to home.
As a member of an ECOWAS county, I’m happy to see that once again counties on the African continent are handling their own refugee situation. Immediately post WW2, this was more common practice and it lead to deeper economic and social ties between the counties of my region.
Our stepping to perform a social good is in no way a support of right wing sentiment.
Not sure how well there success is measured after recently finding out about this:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people...
My suspicion is this is just a short term attempt to boost the PMs popularity among the segment of his support base who think mistreatment of refugees and immigrants is a good thing. It's not a serious attempt to change substantive policy.
Real solution is alas one that eludes us today. The real issue is the blur in lines between economic migrant and refugee, with one used to bismish the other and anything to address the former being classed as an attack upon the later. Hence the whole subject is just a can or worms that just does not get dealt with.
As for the UK, when the majority of the economic and refugee's arrive via safe countries like France then it kinda adds a whole layer of debate that you just don't get with other countries migrant/refugee problems.
Honestly should be that people who need to escape a country for fear of their life should be able to walk into any other countries embasy and apply for asylum. That though is still not a thing, which only helps fuel illegal smugglers who will take refugees and economic migrants equally if they have the money. Which is the bigger sadness of all with how things are working currently as how many true refugee's in fear of their life have died as they had no means to pay for a way out! That whole aspect of thought is just sadening and yet, overlooked as the focus is all about those who had the means or morals to pay smugglers and can imagine there are those who probably had the means but equally ethics and morals that meant they were unwilling to pay in effect crimininals.
So I guess changing how people apply for Ayslum and the ability to walk into the nearest forign embassy would certainly be a start in solving things.
Then distibution equally needs to be fair around the Globe, so no one country becomes burgened, though that would be a whole area of debate the UN could work out. Certainly the ability to apply at embassys would be huge improvment.
I think a country which in the last 3 years had a melt down because they couldn't buy toilet paper; Crashed the supply chains for petrol and diesel by sheer panic; and thought it was a national crisis when KFC ran out of chicken should perhaps wind it's fucking neck in.
It is only natural that people fleeing persecution or not attempt to find a place which gives them the greatest opportunity to have a decent life. There are many contributing factors here everything from prior knowledge of English, family connections and reunification laws.
I'm reminded of a quote though darned if I can find a source, but it's something like "Don't judge a place by the idiots it keeps".
Many of the ideas of UKIP and the others have been adopted by the Tories! And the main opposition party (Labour) has been taken over by centre-right neoliberals. The left had a tiny bit of power pre-Brexit. Now it has none.
(I did put my name to a few of the relevant post referendum petitions, but as a way to signal my opinions — it was already clear to me that the government doesn’t really listen to any of the petitions).
I voted remain: not everything said about Brexit is rhetoric.
So yes, North Ireland represents a nation seperate to the English, the Welsh, or the Scotts.
The people of Northern Ireland today tend to want either continued union with the kingdom ruling Great Britain, or union with the rest of Ireland — depending whether their families are of British origin or Irish. The thought of post-Brexit passport control and customs for travel between the territories comprising Northern Ireland and either Great Britain or Ireland is thus a major political football (far worse in the case of the border with Ireland, because it is a land border and that requires walls.)
Say you break it down to a single street which might have voted 90% remain, should that street then be declared independent?
There are always going to be areas that believe stronger in one idea or another but that doesn't mean those areas should be separate from each other, the whole point of Europe is the idea of being stronger together but then in which case why not keep Scotland part of the UK?
What really is scotlands issue, is not that they need indolence from the UK, they need a better UK government and plenty of people in England believe this also, independence is not required.
The main challenge for Scotland is EU membership if they break away. It’ll get vetoed by Spain who doesn’t want Catalonia to break away. Frankly, perhaps unfortunately, I don’t see Scottish independence in the cards for that reason. Fostering nationalistic, anti-UK sentiment for political power is a dangerous game to play when you’re going to remain in the UK and is loosely akin to all the pillow-rattling that Texans do about seceding. It also somewhat contradicts the mission of the EU. Why stop at Scotland? Why not Catalonia? Or Brittany? How does this not give fuel to secession movements in the US as well? You can’t have your cake and eat it too. You can’t “support self-determination except when I disagree with who is self-determining”.
And we have "God's Own Country"[4] which is a phrase but does have an independence movement[5], and a region (Mercia) which hasn't been a place since 527-897CE but still has an independence movement[6].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Country
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Country
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God's_Own_Country#Yorkshire
[5] https://i-yorkshire.com/yorkshire-independence/
[6] https://independentmercia.org/declaration-of-independence/
But all that was at its apex years ago now it’s more stable.
I could try to find some links on that if you like, but the way I remember it is that the EU was against the idea of Scotland going it alone and EU officials actively worked to discourage any ideas that an independent Scottland would be received with open arms.
But of course, that was before Brexit and while the UK was still an EU member whose national interests were taken into consideration by other members (because EU). This is not the case now.
Still from memory -sorry for that- but when the last UK MEPs were making their parting speeches at the EU Parliament, one Scottish MEP finished his with an impassioned plea to the EU to not forget Scotland. Which I interpreted as a plea to make it easier for Scotland to join the EU if it ever gained independence from the UK.
But otherwise, Scotland was part of a former EU member, I imagine they would not necessarily use the pound (a Scottish pound would probably be weak), so they'd probably adopt the euro in a short while, there is a ton of cultural affinity with the EU, probably more than for England in some regards, etc.
Scotland for sure could get an accelerated membership process if they do decide to become independent. They could even start some of the paperwork or at least contacts before they gain the official independence, I imagine.
Before Brexit the only blocker was a unilateral declaration of independence, which will not happen. Scottish independence will most likely be a mutual separation.
And after that the Scottish budget will be hammered hard so I imagine they'd definitely want to join the EU ASAP to get help. Access to huge markets for exports, cheaper imports, EU funding for developing regions, etc.
I suppose it depends on your definition of “far,” but from an English perspective this seems like nonsense.
I dare say even leaning towards fascism the way that they're rewriting rules to protect big dog.
Looking at international politics, or even (perhaps more relevantly) the history of UK politics, modern UK politics is extremely far right. Labour is a very good example (considered by many within the UK to be left). They have been right-wing since the "New Labour / Blairite" movement (verifiable either by comparing their policies to pre-Blair Labour, or to international socially democratic contemporaries). A similar example is the UK media coverage of Corbyn: his political views - which align very well with the Labour party historically & with international socially democratic parties - were portrayed as being communist/socialist. Corbyn's political ideologies never varied over the decades of his career, nor became more extremely left; rather modern UK discourse moved right, placing him left of the "new centre".
Though right now I want the second referendum as it's probably the best way to end the uncertainty that SNP causing
After all, independence before would have meant exiting the EU, while it now could mean re-entering it. Independence is ultimately the question about how a region wants to see itself in the world, and the alliances you are in are a big factor in that qestion.
The changes from brexit are minimal compared to what Scottish independence would be. Trade with UK dwarfs trade with EU. The Snp government basically buried their own economic report on the economic case for independence because there isn't one (let's see what's in the next one). Last referendum they couldn't even give a clear answer on currency as many nationalist don't want the euro (or EU for that matter).
Next up is defence, we would need to fund an army and navy etc. Given what's going with Ukraine and that russian jets regularly test our air response capability (jets scrambled from cooper airbase regularly I believe). Would we join NATO? Given what sweden and Finland are looking at I really hope so. Oh and the Snp government firmly want rid of nuclear weapons in Scotland (I'm not pro nuclear now hardly seems to be the time to disarm in northern European countries). Break up of the UK would be a huge win for Putin and loss for the west. Oh and have a read of our defence spoke persons bio:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stewart_McDonald_(politician...
It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.
You could argue that, but, the nationalists never did. Instead they said the issue would be categorically resolved by the referendum for an entire generation. Perhaps if they were a bit smarter they'd have thought ahead and caveated their promises, but they wanted to create artificial pressure that they thought would help them.
Then they lost and it was immediately revealed that they were lying. It wasn't going to be a once-in-a-lifetime vote unless they won, in which case of course, they'd never let anyone vote on the topic ever again (if you believe they'd host a "let's rejoin the UK" referendum even in 50 years you don't know the SNP).
Brexit meanwhile is not actually a stark change in political landscape. It has barely affected the lives of most people. It's not at all clear why that should make a difference when there are so many other wedge issues the SNP could also use to claim now it's all different.
Really, if they wanted to ask the question again and win the best way would be to campaign for English voters to also be given the vote. Polls show a significant number of English voters would quite like to be rid of Scotland - whilst politicians really want to keep the union together, actual voters aren't so in love with it. Scotland sometimes gets perceived comes across as more trouble than it's worth: a left wing heavily subsidy dependent one-party statelet mired in corruption and with leadership that vigorously encourages anti-English racism.
I am convinced there are (not just a few) Scots for which this would be similar.
The UK wasn't in the Euro and it wasn't in Schengen. These are two of the most visible aspects of EU membership for ordinary people.
The third biggest effect is automatic migration rights. A relatively tiny number of British people have ever moved to the EU. Losing "freedom of movement" is therefore an issue that a small number of people feel very strongly about, but those people were almost always not actually using it. They liked the idea of it, actually doing it not so much. Whether it's language or cultural barriers, Brits just mostly don't do it. Of my group of friends at school, only one ended up moving to the EU (France). All others stayed in the UK or moved to non-EU countries. Moreover it's not like Brits can no longer move to the EU: they can, they just need to get a work visa. This isn't a big deal.
Of those who do though, they were disproportionately represented in media, politics, academia etc. Hence why the Remain campaign ended up focusing on it, even though for the average Brit this was actually pure downside. They didn't want to move to France or Germany, but they had to compete against the millions of immigrants from eastern Europe who were willing to work for pittance.
"Sure, for many this might just be about symbolism and things like access to the world's biggest single market, its regulations etc."
The US is a much more unified single market. At any rate, every country has access to the EU markets, do you think the EU is cut off from the world? It boils down to more paperwork for those outside it, very often deliberately created but useless paperwork designed to annoy companies into not bothering, but it's still possible to sell for those who really want to.
As for the rest, really? The UK is way ahead of most of the EU on environmental issues. Germany especially is a disaster zone. It's a country that shut down nukes in favour of coal burning and now relies heavily on Russian natural gas as a consequence because it doesn't have sufficient LNG import terminals. You know which country is building new nukes, doesn't burn coal anymore, and has LNG import terminals that let it be no longer dependent on Russia? The UK! The idea that the EU is some sort of environmental and worker rights savior is nonsensical propaganda. The EU institutions don't care about the environment, it's just a wedge issue they can use to build up a support base of people who care more about stated intentions than delivered results.
Finally, re: Scotland. The EU is actually a seriously damaging issue for the SNP. They like to use Brexit as a way to attack the English but it poses major issues for keeping their internal coalition together. Effectively the SNP is an alliance of pro-EU leftists motivated by hate of the "Tory English", and the Braveheart contingent who actually want an independent Scotland but are somewhat conservative on social and fiscal matters. What keeps them together is their shared enemy below the border.
The moment the SNP tries to fight a new referendum, even the least canny opponent is going to point out that the SNP is supposedly a nationalist independence party. The EU hates nationalism, it hates independence, and it's not shy about saying so explicitly. The whole idea of it is to get rid of national governments and blend every country into one! So the core idea of the SNP, it's entire stated reason for existence, is to become independent of one union that controls it and immediately rejoin another. When membership was the status quo position they could mostly ignore this contradiction, but if they fight another referendum they'll have to face it and this will pose big problems.
The second problem is the question of whether the EU would even accept them. Although it is possible that the EU would do it just to spite the UK, in theory it faces major difficulties: Spain and other regions would want to block it to kill off Catalonian independence, and Scotland would immediately be in much greater violation of the budget rules than even Greece was. It certainly wouldn't be meeting the stated requirements to join. If it did join it'd immediately become a major subsidy recipient as one of the poorest states in the EU. It would also have to adopt the Euro, which is an unpopular policy with Scots. Would the other members be OK with that? This issue would be brought up in any second referendum and would force Scots and the SNP to face the fact that Scotland has not been laying the financial or political groundwork for independence, even though it could have been.
Honestly a common belief south of the border is that Sturgeon doesn't actually want independence at all. The lack of competence in organizing it is otherwise a bit hard to explain. The status quo suits her very well, actually becoming independent would make it much harder to blame London for everything whilst simultaneously relying heavily on its support.
I worked for a company based in Edinburgh during the Indyref campaign and I remember the concern about being left out of the EU at the time. All my coleagues (obviously not a representative sample of Scottish society) really thought independence was not a good idea from a bussiness and financial point of view, although I don't reckon any of them were particularly friendly to the Tory government in England.
Edit: thinking of it now, I'm getting the feeling that Scottish people were much more interested in being in the EU than the UK, at the time at least.
Brexit wasn't a case of each nation 'winning' so to speak. The 38% of the vote went to the total number of leave votes. Which contributed to the overall Leave vote.
Point being Scotland did make a significant contribution to the Leave vote.
That was absolutely an ugly bait-and-switch, and I'd be incredibly upset about it if I was Scottish. I'm frankly surprised there hasn't been a massive independence movement directly following the Brexit referendum.
More to the point is that EU citizens resident in Scotland were given a vote on the matter and apparently they overwhelmingly voted Remain because it was in their direct interests to do so.
And in no way can it be described as "an ugly bait-and-switch" when the Establishment had no desire to leave the EU, they were just as surprised at the Brexit result as everybody else.
They voted to remain in the UK because they thought at the time it was in their best interest to do so. They had no idea at the time that their country would leave the EU. In retrospect, it would have been in their best interest to leave and rejoin the EU.
It can absolutely be described as a bait and switch. Maybe it wasn't explicitly planned as such at the time, but it definitely turned out that way.
As you know, UK asylum policy is horrific at the moment. The UK is sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, copying Australia's repugnant offshore policy. I hope we (Scotland) do better.
In 2014, the independence white paper had a points based immigration policy. I want a much more open immigration policy this time round. Scotland is enriched by migrants, whether from England or elsewhere. Moreover, we generally depend upon immigration to maintain modest population growth.
Complete misdirection. It's lawful for asylum seekers to arrive by otherwise-unlawful transport. It'd be better if they didn't have to, of course.
People risking everything on the dangerous migration paths out of Africa don't do that out of fun, they do it because they have literally no other option left. The chickens are coming home to roost, one might say.
Besides: the hurdles that "point systems" place are, similarly to many social security/unemployment insurance systems, set up in a way that allows deceptive politicians to claim "but we have a system!!!" while fully knowing that the hurdles allow only a tiny amount of people to actually use it.
Fewer migrants come to Scotland than England, but again: migrants come to Scotland, they enrich society, and their population is demographically useful.
> the problem doesn't affect you.
It was shown very recently that 'concern' over immigration in the UK is correlated to newspaper reporting, not levels of migration.
On asylum seekers, in reality, the plan to move some asylum seekers to Rwanda won't work - its too expensive, legally dubious, and lawyers/charities will fight it tooth and nail. Its more of a political stunt and won't really do anything.
Up to now, the UK is very ineffective at removing asylum seekers. Overall, its incredibly expensive to remove asylum seekers from the UK and even when this occurs often lawyers/charities continue to fight for them to be returned to the UK. The UK, also doesn't require ID cards, uses English, and 'still' has a very strong economy all of which are massive pull factors for 'asylum seekers'. When you look at the numbers of children from ethnic minorities in the UK its pretty astounding - we are going to see huge changes in the demographic in the next 100 years (note: that's ok, but its ok to be honest).
The only thing that 'may' have made a slight difference is ironically Brexit. Yes it looks like a disaster, but before Brexit lots of asylum seekers that claimed asylum in mainland Europe when they received permission to stay immediately moved to the UK for work opportunities (I don't blame them). But then again this may not work as Brexit has been such a disaster the UK really needs more workers to come and work in the UK.
Note: I am neutral on 'asylum seekers' in the UK. Its a massive political hot potato and generally avoid all newspapers views on them - but the left and right newspapers are both pretty bad at talking about all this in an honest way.
I don't even think they have the support this time as much as they did last time. It's opportunist, mendacious, unwarranted and ill-considered politicking that I will fight tooth and nail against.
It's just the same.
A few years later, an unrepresentative (to scotland) tory government takes it from us anyway because they were frightened of nigel farage and some middle englanders don't like hearing polish in their local tescos.
A lot of my friends who were remain for various reasons seem to be leaning towards independence. 'We were told it was a one time vote' isn't a good enough reason to stay pegged to this ship. The worst outcome for scotland already happened, we lost our EU citizenship, so what's the use of carrying along with the UK?
That being said, I would hope that the SNP aren't running things after independence.
You want a referendum because other people you disagree with were given a referendum that you then lost? And you paint this as "tory government takes it from us"?
I also note that millions voted, it'd be hard for them all to be middle Englanders. I just wonder why you need to paint it so far from reality and in a way that only suits you?
this was the case for brexit, why is it different for scotland?
If it fails, then not enough wanted to leave. That is all.
When they failed to do Brexit for years running, and it turned out the arguments for were lies, there should have been another Brexit vote. It would have failed, and a great deal of trouble would be saved.
> they want one.
Polls consistently show less than 50%. Perhaps the "they" you meant is the SNP?
You don't know why the overwhelming majority of them voted as they did. Maybe most of them can't be said to know. It suffices that they voted.
You are free to announce how you will vote, and why. And you can change your mind afterward, and vote the opposite, without telling anybody.
This is all absolutely elementary civics.
The intentions of politicians are not my business and that is "absolutely elementary civics". That isn't credible.
As to the rest, obvious and irrelevant. When did I make any comment on someone else's right or reasons to vote? I didn't, thank for noticing enough that you refrain from attempting to use it to obscure the issue at hand - your claim about what is my business or not.
They can guess reasons why they think voters want it, and some voters may suggest reasons they think will be persuasive. The pols might offer reasons, too, but they don't really know, so you won't really know either.
And, it doesn't matter. You will vote for, against, or abstain, regardless. People can try to persuade you, but they are not obliged to tell you the truth about their own reasons. The pols, anyway, just want to get elected again and hope that supporting or blocking a referendum vote will do that for them. That is their actual reason. but it doesn't help you any.
If you really believe everybody is telling you the real reasons why they do, promote, or block this or that, I have a bridge to sell you.
Scotland overwhelmingly voted remain. Scotland also is not represented by the Tory government in Westminster.
These are constitutional issues, and the people should be given the choice if they want this to continue or not.
I don't think being asked to chose is undemocratic, it's /exactly/ democracy. Let the people decide.
Scotland did not get a vote, and there are Scottish Tories, and there are members of parliament from all the regions of Scotland. Scottish people are represented better than English people in all respects.
> These are constitutional issues, and the people should be given the choice if they want this to continue or not.
I agree, I voted in the last referendum and I will vote in the next. I disagree with the behaviour of the nationalists so I will vote against them.
> I don't think being asked to chose is undemocratic, it's /exactly/ democracy. Let the people decide.
Do you think that politicians making blatant lies to the public is democratic? I'm not asking if it happens or is likely or an unfortunate aspect of politics, I'm asking if you think it should be part of the way things are actually done and if the voters should overlook it - is it democratic?
Yes, absolutely. Once Scotland is independent we absolutely should keep checking to see if everyone thinks it's a good idea.
If the majority votes to rejoin the rest of the UK politically, we should do that.
This is why it's seen as a once-in-a-generation vote. The impacts are so huge, revolutionary and so long-term, that it's not a conversation you want to have every 4-5 years until one year you chance your way to the preferred result.
Of course the point is moot - can you point to any former part of the English Empire that has ever expressed a desire to get back to being ruled by them?
But maybe I'm wrong. How often are independence referenda held in Europe?
Perhaps not (your choice), but education plans definitely influence _at least_ a generation -- and they are changed almost on every change of legislative color without either a public vote or otherwise much fanfare.
This stuff eventually has a much more profound impact than independence (for starters, education plans can and do influence which % of the population is in favor of such independence; but they can also influence how much the culture diverges between the two "countries", e.g. by promoting regional languages). And this is just an example. Additional devolutions also have an impact that is at least on the same level, and again usually passes without much fanfare either.
> But maybe I'm wrong. How often are independence referenda held in Europe?
We had at least 2-3 last decade? And this entire thread is about another one...
Which countries? I note 4 if Ukraine is part of Europe, but that would mean you have to recognise Crimea's referendum as legal and valid. Not a hill I'd die on. Catalunya's and Venice's were not recognised by Spain or Italy, so we're left with Scotland's.
Unless there were others?
Nouvelle-Calédonie is in the Pacific, not Europe, but I'll give you that one because it makes your argument look like a giant stretch.
> I am sure there are others
Forgive me, but are you expecting me to take you seriously if you can't be bothered to look it up? I could characterise my time on HN as wasting time, but I don't engage on here for a total waste of my time. Please, give me and everyone else here more respect than that and put in some effort, even if you don't have the knowledge or expertise or insight. At least that would be understandable and forgivable.
Do you have a source for that? I only heard of the opposite, but that was mainly Reddit and HN where Europeans are usually pretty pro-EU.
It shouldn't be a surprise logically, as the cases can be seen as similar, but the media prefer the simple black and white cases so we're a rarely spoken of breed.
Edit: sorry, typo, I wrote "It should be a surprise" when I meant "It shouldn't be a surprise".
Relevant quote:
> In February, Ipsos Mori found 29% of SNP supporters would vote to leave while Survation for the Daily Mail put the SNP’s Brexit vote at 28%. On 2 May, the latest Survation poll, for the Daily Record, found 25% of pro-independence voters want to leave the EU – more than the 16% of no voters in that poll who back Brexit.
This is assuming the role of the government here is to track what the people want and execute their will. Maybe it’s different in the UK (again, I don’t live there and I know it’s a complicated system).
And if you hold the vote every 2-3 years, and the result alternates between Yes and No, at what point will you say "stop, this is a final decision"?
What is significant here?
I didn't like the scare tactics in either campaign on either side (though the status quo sides' in each were notably more on the scare side). I see it as an excuse from those who would take any excuse they can.
Your living situation does not obviate the SNP's pledge.
> Yes it really is seismic,
My living situation is to live in a region with actual earthquakes, big ones at times too. A change of a trade deal is not in the same universe, let alone world, of effect upon people's daily lives or political events as that. You need to calm yourself down and get some perspective.
If this referendum comes to pass I'll move back to give my vote against it (unless I get my chance from here). That's how much I'm against it, and keep in mind, I voted for independence the first time. It's slimy and I won't have it.
Edit: I accidentally left part of the responder above's comment that I pasted in, not quoted properly. It was confusing so I removed it.
What you are experiencing is nothing compared to what non-EU citizens (who are largely non-white) had to go through when coming to the UK - why were we favouring Romanians and Hungarians over Indians and Singaporians? I've no idea.
Still, it was a change in a trade pact.
Opportunity cost. Politics and diplomacy take time and effort. Time and effort that could be spent developing plans that have utility.
For example, we have many domestic matters in Finland that need political attention, but guess where all the resources have gone lately? Dealing with covid and russians.
The next generation will have a chance to vote on this, and if they think independence from the EU is a big deal, they can vote accordingly.
The will of the people is always discovered within some rules, otherwise we could vote for many more things, instead of every four years. The rule in this case was to vote now, and wait decades for the next chance.
> England changed their circumstances and people said "once in a generation" a bunch of times
Circumstances always change, and they were bound to change within a generation, it was naive to think they wouldn't. Voting every decade with a 40% chance of independence happening means independence will happen just when the moods swing that way.
Let me ask you, were circumstances going to change if Scotland was independent, should the new Scottish government check for the will of the people on whether they should reunite with the UK? How often should they do this? Of course this hasn't even crossed the mind of any Scottish politician and will never happen.
I have no dog in this fight, but people are allowed to change their opinion, especially as circumstances change. If what your choice was based on changed, then it's perfectly logical for your choice to change in response.
Holding up to "once in a generation" promises is stupid, though so was making such a claim to start with.
Since I've changed mine I think that is called teaching granny to suck eggs.
> If what your choice was based on changed, then it's perfectly logical for your choice to change in response.
I was told it was a once in a generation vote - has that changed? What constitutes a big enough change to bring a new vote? How often should these type of referenda be held?
> Holding up to "once in a generation" promises is stupid, though so was making such a claim to start with.
Yes, you must forgive me for thinking that principles and promises are worth sticking to. I should be as cynical as politicians and simply go by what is convenient, right?
The issue was a vote on staying in the EU as much as staying in the UK. Now these circumstances changed.
Also, the promises of further devolution weren't kept either.
Again, why are you so hung up on the (let's say) lie of "once in a generation" but not hung up on all the other lies told by the opposition?
I don't even remember it coming up but if it means a lot to you then I can see you'd be aggravated, but how would it obviate the once in a generation pledge? Scotland can't join the EU if it goes independent anyway, the vote to remain really was the only practical way to stay in the EU.
Why though? It's not like the UK could dangle a veto over their heads now. Spain already pledged not to veto.
Also curious why Scotland is not able to apply if it leaves the UK? Thanks in advance for the info.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-scotla...
They're talking nonsense. There is sometimes talk of Spain veto-ing Scottish accession to the EU as a sort of warning to Catalonians (who closely identify with the Scottish indy movement), but realistically Scotland is aligned with the EU acquis so there's no really go reason not to. They won't be able to rejoin on the same terms as the UK were in, but that's something that was lost forever after Brexit.
Leaving the EU?
What else would be big enough?
What would be the problem, assuming the independence gets recognized by London? The border situation? The deficit? Or is there some more fundamental problem I'm unaware of?
Once those are met then thorny issues like a hundred mile long border can be looked at. I don't think it's impossible, but, as is covered in the first link (and many other places, did you look?) Scotland cannot swan in to the EU in less than 2 years even at the very best. And without the Euro?[2]
[1] https://sceptical.scot/2020/03/can-scotland-meet-eu-economic...
[2] https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-independen...
I don't think there's any fixed answer to such a question. But I'd say that if the population in general clearly changes their answer, then that merits putting that change in practice.
> Yes, you must forgive me for thinking that principles and promises are worth sticking to. I should be as cynical as politicians and simply go by what is convenient, right?
Yup. I'm a consequentialist. I care extremely little about iron-clad principles, and instead think that the thing we should be optimizing for is outcomes. There's no reason to live under the wrong outcome for the sake of some sort of idealism that brings no benefit to anyone. Rules can be changed as necessary, and promises can be reneged on (though IMO such promises shouldn't be made in the first place).
The point of having principles is to optimise decision making for good outcomes.
> There's no reason to live under the wrong outcome for the sake of some sort of idealism that brings no benefit to anyone.
Having mendacious politicians succeed in their mendacity so easily is of benefit to whom?
Re-running votes because you lost is of benefit to the whole of society how?
Others in this thread have pointed out the opportunity cost problem, and the bias problem of re-running votes too often.
> Rules can be changed as necessary
Of course. In this case I do not see the necessity. The polling figures split yes/no in much the same way as they've been since the last time. The only thing that's of any significance that's changed is Brexit, and yet we had the SNP crowing the other day about how it's bringing in more outside investment than the rest of the UK (which was another mendacity, but what isn't from them?). They were also aware of UKIP and its support, and surely the anti-EU support within their own ranks at the time.
There is no necessity here.
Having principles optimizes for consistency, not outcomes. To me, turning around on a dime 10 times a day can be perfectly justified, so long that in the end you end up somewhere better than before. Same as going forward in the same direction for a thousand years, so long that's the thing that works.
> Having mendacious politicians succeed in their mendacity so easily is of benefit to whom?
The voters who want the policy they propose.
> Of course. In this case I do not see the necessity. The polling figures split yes/no in much the same way as they've been since the last time.
That's quite unimportant to my point here. I'm not talking about UK politics, but specifically rejecting your view of "once in a generation choice". I wouldn't make such promises myself, and would ignore concerns about breaking such a promise.
"Once in a generation" to me is never a legitimate rule. "However often, and whenever needed" is. If somebody made that promise, I'm all for breaking it whenever it seems there's any benefit from it.
So principled that you are happy to stick with a leader who when asked about parties that went on in his house, confidently stated that no parties had taken place.
Please, I'd like to know why you felt the need to write a completely false comment.
The Tory party is dominant in the UK. Now and for the forseeable future. And even in the unforseeable future, more years than not.
Independence is the only escape.
Are you sure you're in the right place?
Many (most?) countries have constitutions that forbid splitting up the country. UK is pretty unusual in providing for a referendum of the type that happened in 2014.
Let's imagine for example that genuinely 55% of the population want to remain part of the UK, and so remaining should win given a completely fair and accurate measure of the population's mood. However, every measurement varies for a variety of reasons, for instance what outrageous things some random politician has said in the last few days. If we were to hold a referendum every year, then you'd be bound to hit a year at some point fairly quickly where the random variation pushes the result over the 50% leave threshold. This would trigger the non-reversible transition, and the referenda would stop happening.
There's a reasonably strong argument for this reason that non-reversible decisions should require a greater than 50% majority. That's why amendments to the US constitution require a 2/3 majority vote to pass.
There's no reason to believe that a time requirement is a good protection against random politicians saying outrageous things. In fact it probably makes things worse because it gives obvious timelines for a campaign, so whenever the possibility opens up it pretty much guarantees all the outrageous politicians coming out of the woodwork.
If half the population is against it, it doesn’t matter if it’s 51% or 49%, it’s unpopular enough that it is tearing your nation in two.
Imagine the US civil war came down to a vote: “Sorry, 50.1% are in favor of slavery so we’re just going to keep practicing it in all of America”. Would the 49.9% be happy to live within that union? How about vice versa? The division is too deep.
Cool. I like the idea of that. Other things that seem non-reversible...
- building nuclear plants/weapons
- burning fossil fuels
- dismantling the NHS
It's not a bad way to try and skip a generation that seems to be skewing left, however, and keep power in the hands of the boomer generation. "Sorry, kids, I know you weren't old enough to vote for this before, but we agreed that we wouldn't do it again for a generation."
Ever was it thus.
That's only true till the situation changes. If the reason for your vote disappeared, then it's legit to reevaluate your vote.
> a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU
Which means two third, the majority, voted for the EU? Seems like a legit reason for a new vote.
> > a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU
> Which means two third, the majority, voted for the EU? Seems like a legit reason for a new vote.
Has that figure changed dramatically? Even if it had, I would go back to why that means "once in a generation" doesn't mean "once in a generation".
Because Brexit, duh?
So for you Brexit, a harder one than what anyone campaigned for ( the hardest one i recall hearing about was "Norway-style"), isn't a change ?
That doesn't obviate "once in a generation", does it? Perhaps they should've been clearer and said "once in a generation, and if the UK has a referendum on EU membership and we decide to leave, and if…"
It would've been more honest, at least.
I'll also note, you're right that the vast majority of leave proponents wanted a Norway-style deal, it was remainers who presented this form as part of their machinations to try and wangle the UK staying in. Don't blame anyone else for that.
Any statement should be considered to be taken in the context that it is given, and constrained by rational, reasonable bounds and circumstances. Assuming anything outside of technical and legal language to mean the most absolute and literal interpretation of the words isn't productive or useful in most cases.
That's why the changes you might say would lead to re-evaluation do not.
Completely rewriting huge chunks of your country’s constitution and international relationships? Probably grounds to rethink your own constitution.
Were the SNP leaders unaware that there was a strong movement to leave the EU within the UK as a whole and also within their own movement?
The answer to both is yes, so what's the excuse?
> In 1999 Tony Blair, abetted by the Scottish traitor Donald Dewar, redrew the existing English/Scottish maritime boundary to annex 6,000 square miles of Scottish waters to England, including the Argyll field and six other major oilfields. The idea was specifically to disadvantage Scotland’s case for independence.
Whether you think he makes his case or not, it's been a while and it didn't stop the first referendum.
[1] https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2012/01/scotlandengl...
Are we pretending that Brexit wasn't a massive change of situation?
"What are the odds?" 'Once in a generation, I should think'
"Things went badly, let's try again" 'Can't! Once in a generation!'
Otherwise I would have to conclude that you simply wish your political goals to be made easier. We'd all like that.
Yes, they can, and some do. But don't also need to convince the people and follow some regulations for this? It's not like they can randomly vote for anything and everything every day as they like, or can they?
> Has that figure changed dramatically?
Make a vote to figure out?
> "once in a generation"
What exactly does this mean? I mean, sure, back in 2014(?) this was a great term. But back then, the world was very different. The world was at peace and smoothing well, more or less. With Brexit, the climate movement in 2019, then the Pandemia and now the war this all changed drastically. Even if the Brexit had worked well somehow in the world back then, the pandemia and now the war destroyed all those chances and shifted the people views significantly.
I mean until some months ago, we still were convinced that pandemia was ending and the world was going to move smoothly again, continuing were it paused from 2019. Russia changed all that and made clear that the cozy times of the 201x years are over. The generation of 2014 is done, the world from then is no more, and a new generation takes over now.
> What exactly does this mean?
From the Oxford English dictionary:
> generation | dʒɛnəˈreɪʃ(ə)n | > noun > • the average period, generally considered to be about thirty years, in which children grow up, become adults, and have children of their own: the same families have lived here for generations.
> With Brexit, the climate movement in 2019, then the Pandemia and now the war this all changed drastically.
I think you already covered that with "Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year". Think back over 30 years and tell me there weren't big changes then too.
If you say to me "once in a generation" and you're over 40 then I'm going to hold you to it. You didn't come down in the last shower.
The prior vote was relatively close (55/45) so it's reasonable to expect that 200k people might've flipped to the 'Yes' camp.
I'm not saying that's how it would be this time but it doesn't make for a strong case.
That's not what has changed. I do agree that the SNP would likely be pushing _anyway_ (the hint is in their name), but a huge amount has been changed since we voted to remain part of the . The promises that were made regarding devolution are still not in place, and England voted on behalf of Scotland to leave the EU.
> a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU, it's just an excuse.
That's great for them, that means that a supermajority of Yes voters want to leave the UK but remain in the EU. That's as defintive as you can get in a vote.
The voting was done by British citizens, England and Scotland didn't get a vote.
> > a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU, it's just an excuse.
> That's great for them, that means that a supermajority of Yes voters want to leave the UK but remain in the EU. That's as defintive as you can get in a vote.
I would say that the actual vote results are the most definitive. One was remain, one was leave.
You can't just keep having a vote for no reason at all apart from the fact you didn't win last time and that is all the SNP are doing.
Or, put another way, you are trying to bind future voters to a promise you agreed to. An arbitrary, ill defined promise at that. What are you telling the younger voters you want to disenfranchise?
Perhaps a supermajority was always the better solution to big questions that should have strong consensus.
Will they not get to vote in future?
Surely it means a referendum on independence once in around 30 years. It's not difficult to parse. Once in a lifetime would be longer.
From the [Scotsman]:
> Speaking on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme yesterday, he said: “My estimation was that political constitutional referendums are once in a generation and I was making the example of 1979 and 1997 - that is why I always put it in that context every single time I said that.
Of course, he goes on to say things have changed. What are the odds he would make the same case for another referendum if he thought things were changing against his favour?
Nicola Sturgeon in interview with the [Guardian]:
> And if the result is No? "Will there be another referendum round the corner? No. We can't bind our successors, but we've made very clear our belief that constitutional referenda are once-in-a-generation events."
From Sturgeon's conference [speech]:
> Next year, we have a once in a generation opportunity
There's *lots* of examples of them saying it and reiterating in, in several forms, that all mean it wasn't going to happen often. That's what once in a lifetime means, right?
Who knew that the SNP would bring me the real second life!
> The terms of the actual agreement signed by all parties agreed legally that there was nothing in it to preclude a further referendum
Very true. I'm not even sure if it's possible under the constitution, as Sturgeon pointed out above "We can't bind our successors", but that's why pledges about the circumstances of a vote are so important.
> so even if by some chance your interpretation is what was meant then they have no actual power to enforce it.
Right. What does that have to do with my voting intention? I'm also interested in what your interpretation of "once in a lifetime" means. Are you over 30?
[Scotsman] https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alex-salmond-once-gen...
[Guardian] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/24/nicola-stur...
[speech] http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/yesscotland/pages/3159/...
You don't believe they should hold the vote again so soon, and so in the event of another vote your reaction will be to... participate in the vote you do not believe should be held, but cast a ballot against the outcome you want? What is the crazy logic there?
- I do not control whether there is a vote
- Those proposing the vote said they wouldn't do it
- I will work to spoil it
I'd prefer that you work through the simple and obvious points yourself instead of implying some mental problem on my part, if only to remove yourself from the irony of such a claim.
You've failed to communicate the why? of this.
I can express it a different way: you have decided that you know what is best for yourself and your country regarding independence - a big and highly consequential topic - and you're going to act in opposition of that to spite a relatively small number of powerful people whose actions you disapprove of. Those powerful people will not suffer regardless of whether your country makes the "correct" (whatever that is) choice regarding independence, but you and your country certainly will. Hence my curiosity about your logic.
Because I'm against lying, and because their own statement contained the logic that it's bad to continually vote on this issue - I'm using their ostensibly given logic because, if we take their actual words as truthful, they are correct. Most people agreed at the time and it was one of the reasons they convinced the public to go along with a referendum.
Usually I can't really take into account the lies of politicians as each side does it and it usually doesn't make a difference anyway (e.g. their electoral promises can be compared to actual behaviour so I can vote based on the latter) and I don't usually get to vote on a specific instance of lying, nor to directly affect the ambitions of the liars. Here, I can.
> you have decided that you know what is best for yourself and your country regarding independence
Yes, I'm a voter so that's implied for everyone with a vote.
> and you're going to act in opposition of that to spite a relatively small number of powerful people whose actions you disapprove of
Yes.
> Those powerful people will not suffer regardless
They will suffer if they lose, as I alluded to above.
> but you and your country certainly will
The country will be fine either way. It may be better or worse but I'm not into eschatology generally, let alone when it's about politics unrelated to war.
> Hence my curiosity about your logic.
That's a more respectful way to put it, you might keep that in mind for future interactions on HN.
If people all over the world had the same right, I suppose a lot of the wars could be avoided. Just imagine Ukraine allowing people in Donetsk and Lugansk to actually decide their status themselves, instead of using an army to force them into Ukraine.
Selectively applying right to independence is maybe the single worst problem in the whole world, whose solution could lead to immediate benefits to everyone.
And before someone claims otherwise, I would even go as far as the community level. If a city in Scotland vote to stay in Britain, I would allow them to become independent of Scotland and stay. In the same ways as I would allow a city in Donetsk to stay in Ukraine if they want so.
Freedom of association is the basic human right, and no majorisation should be allowed to happen. Never.
> Freedom of association is the basic human right, and no majorisation should be allowed to happen. Never.
Russia has cleansed the occupied territories of ethnic Ukrainians pretty well over the last years since they took them over. Any form of "referendum" to associate with Russia is nothing more than a plain land grab, a sham election.
In contrast, there has been no campaign in Catalonia or in Scotland to forcibly remove ethnic Spaniards/English people in order to stage a fraudulent vote.
Without commenting your claims of supposed ethnic cleansing, I'd like to point out that such a referendum could've potentially been held before or after the Maidan coup in 2014. But since Ukraine regime decided to crush independence movement using their armed forces, people of Donbas had no other choice but to fight back and got help from whoever was willing to help them. Otherwise, this territory would be ethnically cleansed.
> In contrast, there has been no campaign in Catalonia or in Scotland to forcibly remove ethnic Spaniards/English people in order to stage a fraudulent vote.
I wish Spanish government reacted similar to British in case of Catalonia. Instead of helping to properly organize the referendum, they opted for using armed forces and criminalizing and arresting pro-independence supporters.
On that we agree. Spain knows they don't stand a chance in a fair and free separation referendum, which is why they went down the dirty route.
[1] https://blog.politics.ox.ac.uk/most-people-in-separatist-hel...
I would still trust an actual referendum held in 2014 than some random net article. Unfortunately, now it's too late for that, we have a bloody war and need to find a way out. And that was my whole point, referendums are good, and the British government is doing the right thing to allow them.
I write Lugansk since it was written like that when I learned it. Luhansk is a relatively recent transcription change. It's still written as Lugansk in most of the German and Polish media. French, Croatian, and Spanish name could also be the same.
Even in original Ukrainian, it is written as Луганськ, "г" being a Cyrillic "g" and not "h". As someone who can read Cyrillic, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian, I just tend to transcribe Cyrillic letters as is, instead to guess the right pronunciation.
Apologies to everybody for continuing this huge tangent, but this is bizarre.
The Ukrainian army did not try to force Donetsk and Luhansk into Ukraine.
First, a linguistic quibble: they had been part of Ukraine from the moment of its independence (and in the independence referendum 80+% of the voters in the two regions had voted for independence), so they couldn't be forced "into" Ukraine.
Second, the conflict began when Russian and Russian-backed forces started an armed insurrection, so it's more the case that Russia tried to force them out of Ukraine, against their will.
I'm highly confident that if a free referendum had been held there in 2014, a majority of the population of the Donbas would have voted to stay in Ukraine. Obviously, we'll now never find out, due to Russia carrying out ethnic cleansing of the region (mass deportations and killings).
> I would even go as far as the community level. If a city in Scotland vote to stay in Britain, I would allow them to become independent of Scotland and stay. In the same ways as I would allow a city in Donetsk to stay in Ukraine if they want so.
This is a very interesting question, but it'd be very complicated to get right, since the support for independence of particular regions can be entangled. For instance, people in Aberdeen might support Scottish independence iff Edinburgh stays in Scotland; people in Edinburgh might support independence iff the border territories stay in Scotland etc. That is not to say that we shouldn't try, if possible.
Many countries fear a referendum every twenty years with a 30% chance of resulting in independence, with these conditions, it's just a matter of time until the region becomes independent, and referendums, of course, stop happening.
i don't get this. to me, in 2022, all the countries of the UK are exactly the same. even Ireland in some aspects. same language, same history, more or less same laws. what's so special about Scotland, and what's their "different path" as compared to, let's say, Wales?
Scotland has sufficient tax base and legal structures to go it alone, whilst Wales arguably doesn't.
In your list, you exclude politics.
considering how many people from London move to Cornwall, and judging by the number of Teslas on the road, yeah, it's pretty similar.
> Scotland has sufficient tax base and legal structures to go it alone, whilst Wales arguably doesn't.
there are lots of countries that went at it alone. that doesn't mean those countries have been successful. one can even argue that an ever closer European Union made lots of small countries be more successful by giving up part of their power.
also, there's no such thing as "alone" in this day and age.
> In your list, you exclude politics.
less politics, better for everyone.
Success is a different question, but the point made that most economists accept Scotland 'could' do it. Wales not so much.
> less politics, better for everyone.
We are discussing politics right now :)
When you are very close, small differences can seem much larger and more important than they really are.
Why would you leave economic and political dominance by Westminster with no control over the economics of your borders (the capital flows, the tax loopholes, the destabilising and exploitative 'investment', the primacy of trade which leads to the all encompassing trade for trade's sake, the depopulation of youth) to instead give that control up to Frankfurt and Brussels?
I think we (Scotland, and Wales) should define what we want to do first and why and where we want to go / want to be. Then in some cases trade agreements will be useful to promote these goals. but they have to be tightly controlled and compensated for.
The idea that politicians in Brussels don't have vested interests, are not the result of heavy lobbying, are not seeking re-election, are not corruptible or of questionable moral standing is rather dangerous. There seems to be a heavy degree of Blue-Washing. Take a politician like Donald Tusk for example, someone who would be in the fringes of the socially conservative right in the UK, yet is venerated during the Brexit discussions. Or Micheal Barnier, again venerated amongst so called liberals in the UK, yet now calling for an immigration ban in France.
On the economic side. Yes everything is very convoluted and remote for a reason. Power structures always get taken over by the interests of capital. The idea that the EU / Euro / European central bank is any different is again rather dangerous. This is an institution with economic interests written into its constitution. The goal here is to drive down the costs of labour added with the maybe unintended or maybe intended consequence that the EU has spend 20 years dealing with the contradictions and artificial constraints on public spending of a currency that it has created, when it could have been using that time and effort to do something transformational, especially in the direction of green technology and energy.
That is why I never said anything of the sort. Let's start fresh, shall we?
but that aside, the US has broad political integration and economic integration and has a single demos. The EU is trying to impose economic integration without political integration (or at least without being honest with the scope of political integration) and that will never work. You can't have freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labour over unequal economies without seriously compensating for it, both 'sides' of the transactions are damaged. Plus it doesn't have a single demos and I don't see how you can magic one into being.
a more apt comparison would be to look at NAFTA. It increased trade, but at great overall cost to both sides.
Not necessarily. For example, regarding official languages, there's no way that Gaelic would be an official EU language if Ireland was not directly part of the EU.
And if Catalonia gained its independence, then Catalan would likely become an officially recognized language in the EU (which it isn't, due to spanish interference). Actually, this is one of the most important motivations for many pro-indepencence supporters in Catalonia (of which nearly all of them are pro-EU).
As a Catalan that wants his country to be independent: I'd cry tears of joy if our western neighbors were half as nice as you the English are. I was not pro-indy before I got to know first-hand the callousness of even moderate spaniard unionists.
a) I campaigned for independence in 2014
b) can prove that I was annoyed about the result
Of course, I cannot prove that I actually voted yes as it's a secret ballot. I can put you in touch with my mum though, who voted no. Perhaps she's lying too and she'll lie to you about what I said I'd voted for. She loves her son and we're into lying to people while using our real names… <insert relevant sarcasm emoji face>
Jesus wept. What is it with HNers who want to lie about others they disagree with politically, on HN? This isn't Facebook or Twitter.
The UK is obviously suffering economically because of Brexit - an economic relationship that was built up over 40 years or so. Scotland, England and Wales have been a country since 1707. Just imagine the complication of breaking that. It makes Brexit look like a tiny job. Scotland would need to set up mirrors of institutions completely administered by Westminster at great cost, with a shrinking and aging population which is poorer, less educated and less healthy than the rest of the UK, even despite much of the things influencing that (healthcare, education) being devolved to the Scottish government since 1997.
I certainly don’t think it’s impossible. But I think it’s like Irish independence - it took the best part of 70 years for Ireland to economically recover. Over that time there was vast emigration to the UK and the US. Part of that was my own family who moved to the UK in the 1950s because of terrible job prospects in the Republic.
Any businesses that needed to move to the EU will have already done so.
Oh yes, and voting for Remain is the only way to stay in the EU.
I think that argument has long since sailed. The EU will undoubtedly fasttrack Scotland straight back into the EU and single market before independence arrives.
As a major English-speaking country in the EU, with ports at the periphery of Europe, strong exports, and a finance capital, Scotland will be in a great position. Brexit has given them a huge opportunity. They should capitalise on England's foolishness.
I don't disagree that it has the things you've listed. The question is - why would a company choose Scotland over Ireland - or even any of the Nordics - when it'll be have political risk for years after independence. Pretty much the only thing unifying the SNP at the moment is independence - post-independence you'd likely see a split into multiple parties.
This is a country that has already been in the EU, was dragged out against its wishes, and now wants to rejoin. It will not be a normal accession process.
Ignoring that fact, the EU has a huge political incentive to ease Scotland’s re entry wrt the English situation.
Ironically, I expect it will be England that ensures the fast tracking by making it impractical for Scotland to retain the pound, forcing them to adopt the euro.
If England make it impractical for Scotland to adopt the pound, then the EU will welcome them with open arms into the euro. That’s just how the world works, states act in their own interests and rules bend as and when needed (as rules on euro membership have frequently been bent in the past).
Scotland's biggest trading partner (by far) is the UK. In 2017 Scotland was a net importer from the rest of the UK.
Imports from the UK would have to have an EU customs tariffs applied, and Scotland has almost no influence on what those would be.
England would have no such option.
Additionally, trade issues with likely open borders the rUK and EU would be significant and similar to the current NI problem
Yes the border would be a real problem, in the long term mostly for England.
Pre-covid, Scottish public spending was about £15b a year more than tax revenue.
I believe the SNP position is that historical revenues should be taken into account for historic debt, but Scotland still has to convince the world to lend it a hell of a lot of money every year to pay for those services, even if they took all the North Sea old revenue (which seems an odd thing for a government with Green backing to be relying on)
The revenues from oil are going to be somewhat predictably stable for the next ten to fifteen years, there is simply too much infrastructure in Europe that relies on burning or otherwise using fossil-origin oil and gas. Banks and other investors can make an investment backed by this expected income.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/350890/united-kingdom-uk...
Apparently it's the only thing of any value in Scotland and in 30 years, we're supposed to be net-zero.
What happens when Scotland's geographical resources cease to be of any use to wealthy English people?
There's tons of future stuff that could be invested in Scotland -- offshore wind and tidal and pumped hydro for example. That investment isn't there because the UK (and the EU for that matter) is market led and the market wants short term results over long term investment.
Forgive me if I've misinterpreted, but you seem to think that's an argument for staying in the UK but I see it as an argument for getting out. It's a crutch, and Scotland needs to figure out how to stand on it's own power. Why should rUK subsidise indefinitely? What if suddenly it decides to stop? And why shoudn't it?
[1]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-200... [2]: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/
The trust has gone. I want us ruling our own affairs.
In 30 years, hopefully there's zero oil revenue.
But what happens in the meantime is important. I have zero faith that a UK government will invest in alternatives that will generate wealth for people living in Scotland.
Why do you think that? We already raise more in taxes than we spend, and right now Scotland is heavily subsidising England.
When the SNP set up the Sustainable Growth Commission before the last independence vote it advised that public sector cuts would be necessary to reduce the country's deficit to sustainable levels. [2]
You can't just make things up because you wish it was so. It is not sensible.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/18/scotland-soa...
How has the price of oil changed since then? Cherry picking much?
Infamously, the SNP's envisioned post-independence budget was based on their forecast for annual oil and gas revenues: £10bn. In reality they have averaged an order of magnitude less: £1bn.
Oil and gas are volatile commodities so there will be year-to-year fluctuations but the secular trend is clearly downwards. The best wells have run dry, and the UK is committed to net zero by 2050 and Scotland to net zero by 2045.
[1] https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...
Some might see this as an argument for ditching the folks who've overseen this downward trend.
The UK and Scottish governments are both committed to net zero, which means the managed decline of the North sea oil and gas industry. Sturgeon has publicly taken a harder position on this than Johnson since COP26.
If Scotland became independent nothing would change. Unless you think the SNP will confect new reserves out of nothing and abandon their climate pledges?
I misread the "downward trend" part as pertaining to the economics of the country as a whole, not the oil and gas sector as you clearly stated.
Oil and gas is dead. We're producing far more electricity from renewables that we use, and England is buying it because they are struggling for power.
Do you really think a sane English government is going to let the lights go out because they can't make a deal with an independent Scotland?
Scotland doesn't have a deficit, because Scotland cannot borrow.
What there is, is a proportion of the UK as a whole's deficit, which is carved up and apportioned to us, but the Scottish government has no say in what that is or how much.
This is a good overview:
https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...
Yes, persistent (like the UK's) but not consistent as you implied.
9.2% and 20%+ is a hell of a spread to start cherry picking from.
More wisely, I would make my long-term economic decisions based not on the consequences of Tory governance, but on the potential upsides offered by managing the Scottish economy according to its own priorities.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-rev...
£13-15b deficit per year
https://fullfact.org/economy/tax-and-spending-scotland/
Just one year that revenue (including north sea oil) was higher than spending as a proportion of the UK. Maybe this year too with oil at a high price.
It doesn't mention if it includes Northern Sea oil as part of that, but the Governments research goes into more detail and does include oil: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06...
Of course numbers can be manipulated either way but it doesn't appear to be as clear cut as "Scotland is heavily subsidising England".
Are constitutional referendums ever really about economics? Brexit certainly wasn't
1) What currecny are you using?
2) Where is your central bank?
3) What debt will you be departing with?
4) What cuts will be required when you can no longer take 32bn a year via the Barnett formula?
Just simple, fundamental things really.
Brexit for example, was a referendum on a very broad question, the specifics were worked out afterwards.
But most likely there will be a transition period, where monetary sovereignty is sacrificed in the short term, to allow central bank to be set up and votes held on various questions including some you list.
> What is it?
> We dont know yet!
Doesn't seem like a brilliant idea from where i'm sat. I think the comparison to Brexit will come up a lot, arguing for a similar process with six years of hindsight is... questionable....
A referendum whereby the nature of the thing being voted on is only explained afterwards is not democratic, it is merely an illusion of democracy.
You can't agree prior to the vote how indy will look exactly, for the very same reason.
It would be well within Westminster's powers to say "sure, draw up a costed budget first and answer the big questions, get OBR sign-off, and we're good to go!"
But at some point, if UK wants to maintain it's pretence of being a defender of sovreignty and democracy, then it will need to allow scotland to hold a second referendum on terms of it's own devising. Not westminsters.
I would agree 10 years is pushing it .
Scotland has approx 10% of the UK population, should that be used as the criteria for the separation ? Should we get 10% of the assets held by the Bank of England
And do you have an opinion about UK position on border integrity?
At least England/Scotland border doesn't have the bagage of the troubles, but it'll still be a mess.
Maybe not quite as extreme as the Anglo-Irish trade war, but it won't be pretty.
If() an independent Scotland would happen to join the EU there wouldnhave to be somenborder to UK (whatever is remaining) as well.
) I think before anybody (Balkan countries, Turkey, Ukraine, Scotland, ...) can join EU the EU requires some reform and decision on what it actually wants to be, so I don't see the fast path, even though Scotland fulfills most EU standards when starting with current British law, as it was shaped along with EU
What does that mean?
There's Schengen, but there are also EU countries which aren't in Schengen...
English is not my first language, but I personally thought the Irish border would've also been important in the Brexit referendum, considering you had a 30 year pseudo-civil war over that same border.
But the British people straight up ignored that little issue and here we are today at the precipice of a trade war and breaking up the Good Friday Agreement.
Compared to terrorism and civil war I would think the inconvenience of a Scottish border is an inconsequential problem.
Realistically there are only two paths forward for England anyway: either the EU will fail completely, or England will eventually be forced to rejoin. So the border will only be temporary.
I do have a horse in this race as I have Scottish family who'd have more choices with an EU passport.
As far as I understand, the EU closed this loophole for new members but it is turning a blind eye for Sweden.
It is fascinating to me that in practice there is this reversal of roles: Sweden is supposed to adopt the Euro and yet has a free-floating currency, and Denmark that has an opt-out deliberately chose to be in ERM-II and has a currency that is pegged to the Euro.
Joining criteria are (https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-p...):
* stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
* a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
* the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
How could it be judged that institutions are stable immediately after independence? There'd be a ton of new ones that would need to be set up.
Most of these are institutions are based physically in rUK so it’s not like they can be “split”
This idea that Scotland is going to vote for independence from the UK and straight into Europe is far fetched.
Its population of around 5 million is comparable to other small EU member states such as Ireland, Slovakia, Finland, and Croatia[2].
[0] - https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publ...
[1] - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_08_10/def...
[2] - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00001/defa...
Truthfully I'm still not convinced but I'm finding it hard to justify staying on the sinking ship of the UK.
I'd rather fail as a country by our own decisions rather than the Scottish government always being able to point to Westminister for failure.
I wish more world wide economists took time to write arguments for/against Scottish independence as I find it hard to see the longer term plan.
It seems very obvious to me that when decisions are made locally they are made in the interests of the people who are local. Being on the periphery of a country is not ideal. Ireland had suffered for it in the past and became very poor as a result of colonization but has rebounded very significantly. Scotland, despite having massive resources is a very very poor and depressed country. If the oil wealth from the North Sea had stayed in Scotland, you could be having a Norway style moment but instead that wealth has gone south.
Scotland suffered greatly from the decline of a few key industries in the 70s and 80s so and parts of it are indeed poor and in decline. But if you're to categorise a country by its very poorest areas, you'll end up saying the USA, France, England are very very poor and depressed.
Scotland isn't Norway - that ship has long sailed and we should discard any ideas that oil wealth can still take us there. But it's not, no offense intended, Moldova and it's wrong to think of it that way.
The oil situation is definitely worth talking about. Not because I think the English should give the oil back, but because it's an example of what the problem is. There will be other oils in the future. The way the oil wealth has been extracted is how England plays the game. English companies and english investors take the lion's share with tax revenue and even oil flowing south of the border to be refined. I would be willing to wager that London did better out of North Sea oil than Edinburgh ever did. Of course they spend money on social services in Scotland all the while claiming that the Scots are lazy and tight fisted and could never manage their own affairs. If England wasn't running things up there the whole place would fall apart. It's the same story they have used everywhere, from Ireland (lazy drunken Micks) to India, the Caribbean etc etc. I just found out yesterday that the term "welch" as in to renege on a promise just means Welsh as in to be from Wales. Slightly ironic given how the English are welching on their international commitments in Northern Ireland.
what "sinking ship" and why this opinion?
Having a huge land border which is an EU/non-EU border with customs controls would be massive economic disruption on both sides of the border. The damage to people's jobs and lives would be huge. This border has been open since 1707 and people have based their lives and livelihoods around being able to cross it freely with goods and services. I can see the romantic appeal of an independent Scotland, but it would objectively be a disaster.
Is it really considered a huge border? There's only 5 roads that cross it.
It's a rural area and the border follows some rivers that have a limited number of bridges.
No roads at all connect England with France, but Brexit still caused a lot of disruption.
There's 5 "A" roads. Not sure how you got to 29 but my guess is there's going to be a lot of single-track lanes in that number. Hard to imagine huge trucks of counterfeit goods running up and down the B6318.
> No roads at all connect England with France, but Brexit still caused a lot of disruption.
The UK government said all these problems were caused by the intransigence of the EU so that need not be a problem this time.
It strikes me as unfair to just do another referendum again so soon (I think it was in 2014, so like what 8 years?).
I think perhaps if they get one on Scottish independence, perhaps we should have a reverse-brexit referendum vote!
I can see it now... 51% in favour of rejoin, 49% against. Boris et al. reject on the grounds that it's too close, hilarity ensues.
But since there been at least one major shift in the very country Scotland exists in, I think it's fair to reassess how people feel about independence via a referendum.
I think their marketing team needs to do some work on that one and maybe a bolder call to action than "Why not Scotland" while they're at it :D
SNP is causing Scotland far more harm than it's worth. Scotland doesn't need independence, it needs a better government for the whole of the UK, but with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories.
The EU is currently negotiating with Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro to join[0]. Is there something these countries have which an independent Scotland wouldn't?
> with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories.
All of Scotland's population could have voted for Labour in the last three elections and it wouldn't have been enough to take Labour over the line. As it turns out they didn't and appear to have moved on to a mixture of SNP, LD and CON. I would invite you to think about precisely why Scotland have abandoned the Labour party in recent years if you want some insight as to that state of affairs.
[0] - technically Turkey as well, but that appears to be stalled
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-scotland-i...
Why on earth wouldn't they want an english-speaking nation with great natural resources and a political establishment that is generally cooperative and open? Scotland has historically had much greater ties with Europeans than England.
> what does Scotland have?
Gas, oil (rather handy still), agriculture - forestry, fisheries etc., finance, universities, geopolitical advantages.
> Scotland doesn't need independence, it needs a better government for the whole of the UK, but with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories.
Another way of phrasing this is: Scotland will never get the government it wants unless it leaves the UK.
But these hypotheticals are just bargaining chips the EU has to force the UK back into the customs union and single market. Who knows, maybe a decade from now there will be a unified Ireland, a free Scotland and the UK will have abolished the monarchy even! But even if these aren’t realistic goals, it still makes sense for Brussels to support these movements.
Just those in the smaller part that is 'leaving'? Or the whole country?
If just the smaller part, does that mean any tiny town can 'vote to be independent'?
A tiny town is unlikely to be able to maintain itself as an independent state. A province can definitely vote to be independent, which has often happened, and has often been blocked by the parent country, peacefully or otherwise.
If this was a workable thing, every town would want to do it - your taxes are far lower if you don't need to pay for the debts of a big nation state war from 100 years ago with compound interest!
Everyone I know votes SNP but doesn't really want to deal with a ref right now. Are vaguely disappointed with quality of SNP governance, but overall prefer to vote for a party which is primarily scottish focused and (slightly) to the left of rUK.
Current polling shows 2023 to be unpopular. But if current trends to Yes hold, then 5 to 10 years seems more realistic.
SNP need to juggle this reality with their election pledges.
I've asked this question many times but how is it feasible for Scotland to become Independent:
1. They currently don't meet the requirements to join the EU. Are they going to skip the current waiting list? 2. How will they create a military? 3. Still a big question mark over currency and Scotland's debt. 4. Ownership of Natural Resources?
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/02/05/what-would-it-...
They're not an enclaved nation didn't want to Brexit because they're not royalists[0]. Based on my informal conversations, my sense was they wanted to have the ability to travel and work throughout the EU, and that they declined independence (narrowly) because even if they're overwhelmingly... let's phrase it "not exactly a bunch of royalists".
They may very well actually do it, a second time, then negotiate in partnership with France to possibly allow the UK to retrieve their nukes, given how poorly folks honored the Budapest Agreement[1] and the Good Friday Agreement[2]
The end result of Brexit, as I told many folks back in DC, is looking increasing like the "United" Kingdom will have to renamed "Wangland"[3].
[0] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/15/scottish-sup...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement#Equality...
[3] Wales + England, get it? ;-) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Wales
Though I am worried for an independent Scotland's economy: they may gain some business, but some will withdraw, the rest of the UK will reconsider how tightly integrated its economy should be with Scotland, they'll likely lose the use of the GBP, which holds much value in itself; if they can't join the EU and use the Euro then the Scottish Pound problem will happen all over again.
I think what we will see play out is a Labour Libdem coalition which will get us back into the single market. Eventually we will get a single party government again and hopefully by then the world will be a much stabler place...
Oh climate change...
But nationalists gonna nationalist I guess.
Scotland has been part of the UK for more than 300 years. It is so tightly integrated into its society and market that a hard border would be rather painful.
We have an example of the successor states of Austria-Hungary once the empire collapsed at the end of WWI. The economic situation of businesses that suddenly faced high tariffs accessing their traditional markets was dire and likely paved way for the Great Depression in Central and Eastern Europe being even worse than it had to be.
Scottish independence seems to me a solution in search of a problem.
i find it hard to believe Scottish people don't travel outside of Scotland.
It would be better for the poorer regions to invest the HS2 money in local infrastructure and services.
Maybe Scotland is different, but around me, I haven't seen any region that was depopulated by having good rail infrastructure.
There's an additional point with HS2 - one of it's main benefits was to alleviate pressure on the main north/south routes, opening them up to more regional services and an additional "northern powerhouse rail" to link some of the cities in Northern England. But the HS2 project is slowly being eroded and chipped away at to the point that it is becoming solely a "get to London faster" project without some of the improvements that alleviate the pressure on these important rail corridors. Additionally the Northern Powerhouse rail (plus things like the Leeds Tram/Light Rail) looks like it's for the chop too. So the North of England is kinda getting shafted here and I feel for them.
Going a bit further north, the benefits to Scotland probably weren't huge to begin with. Going from Edinburgh-London quicker is nice for the people who do that and shaving a 45 minutes off is cool but if it was actually extended to Scotland that would've been a much bigger deal, or maybe an entirely separate high-speed corridor for the very well trafficked Glasgow-Edinburgh route.
[0] - just grabbed it from wikipedia, https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraje_v_%C4%8Cesku
[1] - there technically is! https://www.spravazeleznic.cz/vrt/praha-brno-ostrava-a-brno-...
[2] - sorry
Scotland has a population growth issue. The last thing it needs to spend 10bn on, is shaving 10 mins of the journey time to london. That 10bn would be better spend on local infrasctructure.
Edinburgh and Glasgow to London are the most common domestic flights in Britain. (Belfast does have more.)
The intense focus on London above any other region is a key driving force of indy
When I used to travel to London (where I now reside) regularly as a child, I was always bemused by how much of a bubble there was around the South East, in terms of people's consciousness, perspective and blunt media focus. There really was - and still moreso is - a curious myopia for anything North of Watford.
I've not lived up North for over twenty years, but I'm pretty sure the sentiment up there's not gotten any weaker... .
Maybe just annex all but SW1 to be part of an independent European nation…
So, the Scots don't want that the people who make the decisions would be in Westminster — they want the people who make the decisions to be in ... Brussels, Strasbourg and Hague?
- The EU would have less of an influence than Westminster does. - The people of Scotland believe their desires are more aligned with those of other countries, than with England.
"The EU would have less of an influence than Westminster does"
For example. Did the UK require permission from the EU in order to hold the Brexit referendum?
Are members of the UN or WTO independent?
If a body consisting of representatives elected only by "Scottish citizens" can decide which unions to associate with, and which to leave, we'll have independence in my book.
You'll have to relocate Westminster to somewhere in the home counties. Oh and let Wales & the North join your party :)
I would certainly be happy to welcome Scotland back into the EU, no questions asked. You have a lovely country, people, culture and mindset. I have always felt more than welcome when visiting Scotland, and I can only wish to return the favor.
Scotland will make shitloads exporting hydro electricity. Probably more than oil and gas royalties
I doubt that. Hydro doesn't seem very exportable.
hydro-tech should be though and Scotland could be well placed to attract investment in that (if only we weren't losing so many scientists to the EU)
It's on a growth trend, the wind farm on dogger bank may alter the balance.
True but the rate it gets for that electricity is lower than the rate recieved by power companies operating in the south. This is because there is an operating cost of maintaining the network that allows the energy to flow to the point of use. The cost of getting it to Europe would be even greater.
http://www.scottishenergynews.com/higher-connection-charges-...
i hope scotland gets their independence. they might help us when our time comes. fingers crossed
Should be interesting either way....
I'm Scottish and I voted no the first time round. My arguement was always "I've more in common with people from Manchester, Liverpool or London than I do with Highlanders and 'nationalists'" (I'm in Glasgow, which is the third largest UK city and the largest in Scotland). But then we were taken out of the EU and since then the UK has become (been unmasked as?) very right wing, led by a deeply unpleasant right wing of the nominally centre-right Tory party. Centre-left politics (primarily social but also economic) have been ruined, as a result of various factors at play in the last 5 years or so. My kinship with other UK cities is no longer reason enough to support the union.
I manage a company registered in Scotland and it is now as difficult for us to do business with France or Spain as with India or Canada. Unlike those business owners who like the idea of a captive UK market, I want our company to compete and export globally, and we have been deprived of simple access to the world's largest trading bloc.
As for the prospect of an independent Scotland joining the EU, I see no hurdles to that. Now that the UK has left the EU, it is absolutely in the EU's interest to allow Scotland, having left the EU unwillingly, to rejoin.
For these reasons I'm inclined to vote yes if a second referendum is held, but I'm not 100% sure and could change my mind depending on the economic and social plans put forward.
If that’s what they’re after, why would they want to join the EU after leaving the UK?
Scotland shares a land border with England. If Scotland were part of the EU it would have to have a harder border with England. It may exclude itself from the Schengen zone but there's still the EU customs union.
Northern Ireland was the real sticking point in Brexit because of this land border with Ireland. So we ended up with the only compromise possible: Northern Ireland is effectively in the EU customs union, which is somewhat unpopular (it's complicated).
But here's the advantage Northern Ireland has: part of the Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the ability to withdraw from the Uk and reunify with Ireland [1]. This is something the UK would probably drag their heels on but a lot (myself included) think that Brexit made this inevitable. Demographics also favour this. Broadly speaking, the Republicans are Catholic and generally for reunification. Unionists are Protestants and generally favour remaining part of the UK. Population growth is higher among Republicans.
Scotland has no such mechanism. It was offered an independence referendum in 2014 and voted no. It's not likely it'll be offered another unless Scottish MPs become the balance of power in Westminster for a future government. Given the success the Conservatives had in the last election, that won't happen anytime soon.
One can argue Scotland got jebaited since 2 years later the UK voted for Brexit. Scotland overwhelmingly voted Remain. But Brexit complicates "Scexit" because England (and Wales) is no longer part of the EU customs union.
Remember that just as the UK can and did leave the EU, they can also join again. In 20 years this may be the desired option. I doubt the UK will get the concessions the EU once gave them however so maybe it'll never happen.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Good_Friday_Agr...
However there have been material changes since 2014. In 2014 a key point was there was no guarantee that Scotland would be admitted into the EU after "scoxit", and if they didn't it would cause chaos. The UK (specifically the majority of people in England and Wales who bothered to vote, which outweighed NI and Scotland's majorities against chaos) voted for that chaos anyway.
I worry that there wouldn't be a detailed plan though, same problem as brexit. What will independence actually mean. If you were born in Scotland but live in Carlisle, do you get a Scottish passport? What if you own a second house in Scotland? Or would it be your income tax residence, if so on what date? What will border controls look like for people (both practical day to day, and things like living or working cross border). What about goods and services. Will Scotland's use a currency guaranteed by the Bank of England like some countries use the US dollar, or will they create their own Scottish Pound. Then of course that's all the arguments about the maritime border, allocating the UK's existing assets and debt, what happens with the military (will Scotland have an independent army, will it join NATO, will it contribute to rUK's defence, what about existing military bases), head of State (does Scotland keep the Queen [King]), etc.
I think that having a first vote, two options
* Scotland should form a detailed plan by Dec 31st 2027 to be put to a yes/no referendum before June 1st 2028 * Scotland should maintain the status quo and not have any further independence referendum before Jan 1st 2040
Which would be enabled by legislation to ensure that the rest of the UK fully cooperates with that plan, and authorizing Scotland to attempt to talk to international groups (EU, UN, NATO etc) about transition
That would then be followed a detailed plan which answers those questions (and more), and then a "are you sure" vote, would be sensible.
Do you support the Scottish independence plan
> Yes, Scotland should become an independent country on Jan 1st 2029 following the detailed independence plan
> No, Scotland should maintain the status quo until at least Jan 1st 2040
My browser asks me to confirm when I try to quit, having an "are you sure" question for major constitutional change makes sense.
I personally think it's actually a worse idea now than it was in 2014 because of brexit -- we'd end up with the NI chaos but with a land border rather than the sea border. If we were part of a wider economic union then it would be fine, but that means Scotland giving up their say in the rules but still having to follow them, just like the UK and EU. In 2014 if Scotland were admitted into the EU it would have been fine, probably a good move.
However my views are worth about as much as my views on Italian elections. It's entirely upto the people of Scotland, and I don't live in Scotland. My brother in law might be affected, he lives in North Cumbria as a builder, sometimes he works in Cumbria, sometimes Northumberland, sometimes in Dumfries, but that's self determination for you, and I always support self determination, be it for Falklands or Puerto Rico, Catalonia or Northern Ireland, Gibraltar or Crimea, Ukraine or Puerto Rico.
I really hate the word sovereignty beign thrown around because in and of itself it doesn't mean anything. At least not in the way that Brexitiers use it.
Isn't that the essence of politics?
You're basically trying to convince people that the system would be "better" if things were run the way you proscribe vs someone else. Of course different people have different preferences so it's likely some will perceive it as "better" and others will perceive it as "worse".
The SNP also mismanages many Scottish councils and there is far amount of sleaze associated with their members but it's "our sleaze" and not theirs so it is better.