4,533 karma · joined March 1, 2011
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However, most of us here — including the OP, it seems — are interested in higher level problems. Not those of writing compilers or optimizing some arcane algorithm, but those involving successfully running a startup. Academia is far behind on the later, and as a student myself, I share the sentiment of the OP.
Here's a good mashup from a number of third party sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events....
This is hardly a wishy washy thesis by a history major. The data are pretty robust.
However, our species is incredibly poor at intuitively understanding exponential trends. Kurzweil's essential point is that our gut-feeling predictions of the future will be off substantially. Specifically, our intuitive sense of future progress significantly underestimates actual progress and the gap systematically widens as time progresses.
Neither you or I could have intuitively predicted twenty years ago the level of today's technological advancement. And we'd be even more wrong in the predicting the next twenty.
It's far too easy to dismiss Kurzweil's work as that of a superficial nutjob who wants to "sell more books and speaking engagements." Kuzweil's crunched the numbers. While he might not be right on everything, his predictions are based on data, but yours are based on human intuition that has historically been wrong.
I would be very careful of the knee-jerk reaction you display to Kurzweil's work. Keep in mind we are cognitively disabled at intuitively predicting exponential progress.
The problem is that performance is an academically interesting problem to us geeks. We love to optimize, make quicker and oh-so clever.
So yes, that whole thing about consumers is ill-advised. Especially when there's someone out there that's already figured out how to build truly great products.
The question is not can they, but will they.
A developer casually reading a few books/blogs could learn pretty much all those domains. The same can't be said of business guys doing the opposite.
UX is not something you can stitch on afterwards. Good UX is deeply ingrained in engineering and an omnipresent, pervasive focus of the team. I think that's what parent is referring to in regards to what Google is lacking.
Here’s a seemingly paradoxical piece of advice for you: Listen to your customers, but don’t let them tell you what to do. Let me explain. Consider a feature request such as “GitHub should let me FTP up a documentation site for my project.” What this customer is really trying to say is “I want a simple way to publish content related to my project,” but they’re used to what’s already out there, and so they pose the request in terms that are familiar to them. We could have implemented some horrible FTP based solution as requested, but we looked deeper into the underlying question and now we allow you to publish content by simply pushing a Git repository to your account. This meets requirements of both functionality and elegance.
No compromise.
Interestingly, the sentence that completely blew me away had nothing to do with the argument being made.
So true.
Anything that's worth participating to is elitist. It brings together interesting, fascinating and smart people. Most admirably, TED succeeded at keeping the audience eclectic. Nobody learns from homogeneity and confirming their thoughts with people who think the same.
As a TED attendee and TEDx organizer, I can definitely confirm on this. Whether for my event or for TED, I see the talks as just an excuse to get amazing people together. Everything — from the high cost to the application process — is about ensuring that every person in the audience genuinely wants to participate and contributes to the experience.
Case in point: the talks are posted for free online to weed out those who attend for the information in the talks. The Internet trivializes pure knowledge and makes human interaction so much more valuable.
When you bank your event on people (which is pretty much the only thing you can bank on in the age of the Internet), you have no choice but to make it elitist. In a good way.