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DanBC

56,529 karma · joined September 22, 2011

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DanBC··on 'An explosion': what's behind a rise in girls questioning their gender identity?
She's wrong though. We know she's wrong because the mistake she made is the exact same mistake Bilek made.

Bilek claimed Soros had made a huge donation to a pro-trans organisation.He hadn't, he'd made a small donation to a pro-trans organisation, and a very much larger donation to an international human rights organisation.

Joyce repeated those without checking - and it would have been a simple fact check.

When ever anyone talks about shadowy funding from Soros it's almost always an antisemitic conspiracy theory, and Bilek's later comments are very clear: she believes transition is a plot by Jewish people to spread post-humanism.

Obviously Joyce is now feeling a bit uncomfortable about having platformed and promoted this person, and she's back-peddling her support a bit. But the fact remains, she used to support Bilek, she spoke to Bilek frequently, she reposted comments from Bilek, and she included Bilek talking points in her book.

Rather than being honest and admitting she made a mistake she's simply lying about events and using legal threats to silence critics.

https://twitter.com/Chican3ry/status/1416557294595231744

https://twitter.com/christapeterso/status/141659996421444813...

DanBC··on France prepares for possibility of electricity blackouts during winter months
> Blocking water with a dam is a well understood problem

I feel like we still have some problems with dam building, because they keep failing. We struggle to get the building material (in particular, sand). Concrete is pretty awful in terms of CO2. Dams of all sizes cause problematic changes to the rivers they're on, and block flows of fish and other animals. Smaller low head weirs and dams kill humans.

Lots of time, money, and effort is going into removing smaller dams and low head weirs.

DanBC··on Fosshost Is Shutting Down
So, uh, yes, but it's very dependent what bit of England you're in and what bit of mental health service you're trying to access. I'm not disagreeing with you btw, the picture is pretty bleak for very many people.

Some of the data is here. https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/sta...

And the IAPT data is here (although in many places IAPT has been diluted so much it's not giving much meaningful benefit) https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/sta...

DanBC··on Fosshost Is Shutting Down
> And if they are having a mental health crisis, they should be able to plea insanity.

"Not guilty by way of insanity" is an incredibly high bar to meet, and it happens very rarely.

What usually happens (in England!!) is that the person is tried, convicted, and sentenced, and then given a hospital order. At that point they stop being a prisoner serving a sentence, they become a patient getting treatment at a low secure, medium secure, or high secure specialist commissioned hospital. I've spoken to patients in low and medium secure units, and they often say they'd prefer to be in prison doing time rather than being in hospital getting treatment.

I have some poorly formed thoughts about the need to set a high bar on criminal convictions, especially when people have made major errors, perhaps driven by mental poor health, rather than criminal intent. Mens rea and actus reus are a pretty important combination. And it's not a binary prosecute vs do nothing, there are a range of community restoration measures and protections that can be put in place leaving criminal prosecution for unrepentant criminals.

DanBC··on The Truth Matters and Secular Humanists Should Defend It
We're using the word consent because we're having to use massive simplifications. Bit weird that you're insisting on a US-only framing of concepts of competence, capacity, and consent.

> Edit: I dont want to talk about intersex children. That's a red herring.

No, it really isn't. You're talking about children not being able to consent, and about rates of regret of transition, and about forcing children onto a medical and surgical pathway of transition. We see all of these in intersex people. You don't want to talk about intersex people because they disprove the points you're making and they highlight the fact that anti-trans campaigners are, simply, against the existence of trans people.

DanBC··on The Truth Matters and Secular Humanists Should Defend It
The conclusion of the paper that you've misunderstood and are misrepresenting:

"This is the first study in which associations between access to pubertal suppression and suicidality are examined. There is a significant inverse association between treatment with pubertal suppression during adolescence and lifetime suicidal ideation among transgender adults who ever wanted this treatment. These results align with past literature, suggesting that pubertal suppression for transgender adolescents who want this treatment is associated with favorable mental health outcomes."

DanBC··on The Truth Matters and Secular Humanists Should Defend It
But children consent to treatment all the time.

If you want to talk about non-consensual treatment you could mention surgery provided to intersex children, but that doesn't fit the narrative.

DanBC··on The Truth Matters and Secular Humanists Should Defend It
Where is insanity in DSM?
DanBC··on Why America’s Railroads Refuse to Give Their Workers Paid Leave
> It's entirely inconsistent and useless.

For some people their infection with covid is going to be mild, and their infection with a cough or cold is going to feel to them similar to covid. But for other people covid is very much more severe than a cough cold.

I have cancer, I'm going through chemo. I must not catch a cold, because it could be really serious. But I really must not catch covid, because it could kill me.

I'm not expecting society to live in lock down to accommodate me, but if an event asks people to do lateral flow testing before attendance, and someone tests and is positive, I'd like them to not attend, or attend with masking and social distancing. I don't want them to attend, not mask, not socially distance, and then near the end of the event say "oh, by the way, I tested positive for covid this morning". I don't attend events because this is a thing that people do.

DanBC··on 'An explosion': what's behind a rise in girls questioning their gender identity?
You mean intersex children, right? Or you don't care about them because, er, reasons?
DanBC··on 'An explosion': what's behind a rise in girls questioning their gender identity?
Puberty blockers are not irreversible.
DanBC··on 'An explosion': what's behind a rise in girls questioning their gender identity?
You're claiming that providing a cheap, unpatented, medication to 0.5% of the population is some kid of growth opportunity when the same meds are used for nearly 1 in 3 women?
DanBC··on 'An explosion': what's behind a rise in girls questioning their gender identity?
Joyce pushes an antisemitic conspiracy theory. She claims she made a simple error with the names of two charities. (George Soros made a very large donation to a human rights charity, and a very much smaller donation to a pro-trans charity, and Joyce swaps these around to make out Soros paid huge amounts to pro-trans organisations). But, we know it's an antisemitic conspiracy theory because we know where Joyce plagiarised it from - Jennifer Bilek.
DanBC··on 'An explosion': what's behind a rise in girls questioning their gender identity?
> There are still many publicized cases of puberty blockers being given to young children (i.e. before 12 years of age).

You know that's the licensed use for these meds, right? To block precocious puberty?

DanBC··on 'An explosion': what's behind a rise in girls questioning their gender identity?
I have significant concerns when the "default" response to these questions leads to powerful drugs taken during puberty,

That's not the default, very few children who went through GIDS got access to meds. The majority got no meds.

> or irreversible surgeries before one reaches adulthood.

Does not happen in England.

It's okay to have concerns, but you should make more of an effort to base those on what actually happens rather than on disinformation being spread by anti-trans organisations.

DanBC··on How British Healthcare System Treats Trans People
You're getting a lot wrong because you're focussing on regular referral from GP to secondary care, and not from GP to specialist commissioning.

> 20 years? What

This was the actual, not reported, wait list for Tavistock. The reported list was shorter because the way the NHS counts it meant that many patients were simply not counted.

DanBC··on Red meat is not a health risk. New study slams years of shoddy research
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/2015/11/03/repo...

> Processed meat – meat that has been transformed through salting, curing, fermentation, smoking, or other processes to enhance flavor or improve preservation

> Red meat – unprocessed mammalian muscle meat such as beef, veal, pork, lamb, mutton, horse and goat meat

> Consumption of processed meat was classified as carcinogenic and red meat as probably carcinogenic after the IARC Working Group – comprised of 22 scientists from ten countries – evaluated over 800 studies. Conclusions were primarily based on the evidence for colorectal cancer. Data also showed positive associations between processed meat consumption and stomach cancer, and between red meat consumption and pancreatic and prostate cancer.

When they talk about causing cancer they're talking about two things: the quality of the evidence, and then the strength of the effect.

For processed red meat the evidence is very strong: processed red meat does cause colorectal cancer.

But how much cancer does it cause? It doesn't appear to cause much cancer. If you have a genetic predisposition to colorectal cancer, or if you want to be very cautious, you might want to think about avoiding processed red meat. But otherwise, well, the small increase in risk might be worth it for the benefits you get from eating food you enjoy.

DanBC··on Red meat is not a health risk. New study slams years of shoddy research
For "processed red meat" people mean red meat that has been preserved by smoking, salting, curing, or by adding preservatives.
DanBC··on Things I've noticed while visiting the ICU
Compassion in Dying have some advice about advance decision making.

https://compassionindying.org.uk/making-decisions-and-planni...

It's important to get the right balance around specificity. You need to include some

DanBC··on My ADHD founder toolbox
Unfortunately the wait lists are highly dependent on where abouts you are in England.
DanBC··on Ask HN: Is the world run by badly updated Excel sheets?
I agree. Have a look at the EU Spreadsheet Risks Group, especially the horror stories.

http://www.eusprig.org/

http://www.eusprig.org/horror-stories.htm

They get posted to HN from time to time. https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=eusprig.org

DanBC··on They Paused Puberty, but Is There a Cost?
No, it hasn't.

We have decades of research on this. Rates of desistence are low. Rates of regret are low, and are lower than most other forms of medical care.

Edit: Even the submitted article admits that on one side you have medical opinion and science saying PBs are safe and reversible, but that you have Republican politicians saying they're harmful. It doesn't present any evidence that PBs are harmful. I notice that you haven't either.

And anti-trans campaigners can't, because their position is incoherent. PBs are apparently so dangerous we can't give them to children, but children who've had them are still so powerful we can't allow them to compete in sports because they'd win everything.

DanBC··on They Paused Puberty, but Is There a Cost?
But those minors aren't making the decision. Doctors are.
DanBC··on They Paused Puberty, but Is There a Cost?
> And we are giving the choice to take them to people too young to be allowed to vote, drive, or have sex.

No we aren't. These are prescription only meds that are obtained after considerable, sustained, effort to engage in bio-psycho-social assessment and treatment programmes.

DanBC··on They Paused Puberty, but Is There a Cost?
> And it’s NOT very very real to them

Except it is. There's no research that show significant rates of desistence in the relevant population, which is children who want to transition. Rates of persistence are high in this population. Rates of regret are low, and are far lower than many other common forms of surgery.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S188898912...

DanBC··on Controversial £360M NHS England data platform ‘lined up’ for Trump backer’s firm
Steve Barclay will have no hesitation in signing this off to Palintir (he does not care about privacy, and he wants private companies working with the NHS), except he's pushing for budget cuts and it's not clear that the NHS can afford it.

https://twitter.com/ncarding/status/1589642773011263489?s=20...

DanBC··on CRISPR cancer trial success paves the way for personalized treatments
Part of the NICE discussions is to apply pressure to get a lower price. I feel like this is a good thing to prevent gouging. The second version of the Cancer Drugs Fund is also useful here, because it makes available stuff that isn't in the BNF.

The draft guidance is here: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta567/documents/appraisal-c...

It's long and detailed and it'd be unfair of me to pull anything out specifically.

DanBC··on Gundam and anime replace rampant politics in Japanese Twitter Trends
> CAT scans are routine, etc

That's a bug, not a feature. American doctors know that they order too many scans; they know it's harming their patients; but they can't stop doing it because there's a false belief that "more scans == better care".

If you're in England and you need a cat scan you get a cat scan. They're not forbidden.

DanBC··on Meta lays off 11,000 people
> They were dominated (at least by the publicly-available figures here in the UK) by retired folks.

You're saying here that most of the people who died were old, which is true. But you're also saying that this means that not many young people died from covid, which is untrue. It's untrue because a small proportion of a very large number is still a lot of people. Covid killed very many economically active people.

DanBC··on An Existential Threat to Doing Good Science
> Their chemotherapy?

This surprise lots of people, but rates of regret for patients getting chemotherapy or other cancer treatment are quite high. They're much higher than rates of regret among people getting gender affirming care.

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