828 karma · joined November 22, 2021
But I don't see how it being an estimation makes it less bullshitty, because there is simply no reasonable way to tie that 80% to anything concrete or meaningful. It is stated in such a way that evaluating the truth or accuracy of the estimate is basically impossible, i.e. it is bullshit by vagueness, even if it is an estimate. Only the "end of the year" claim is concrete, but the AGI definition has much of the same BS-via-vagueness problem, so it is still all very Frankfurtian to me.
So I don't see it as banging news, but just as more BS and almost certainly a nothingburger. But, hey, whatever, time will tell.
I.e. are we 80% of the way by the calendar, then if so, as measured by when? We're only about 66% of the way through the current year. Is it that they are 80% of the way through some final totally defined training or tuning procedure? Not likely. And it is 80% of the way to AGI, which is vaguely defined as that which can "outperform humans [by how much? what proportion of humans?] at most [how much, exactly, again?] economically valuable work [what work is not economically valuable?]."
Call a spade a spade, the 80% thing is 100% total bullshit (in the Frankfurtian sense, i.e. it is completely unconcerned about truth, and is all just about generating feels).
I doubt we agree on what "rigorous definitions" means, given that you are happy to continue using a useless, vague family resemblance concept like "consciousness", but complain that pointing out dynamicness and/or change is involved is too vague.
I believe one cannot give a rigorous definition of consciousness precisely because it is a family resemblance concept, and there is no actual essence. This is why I suggest shifting to talking about aspects, since then productive insights and truths can be discovered.
Dynamicness / change is one aspect that is definitely part of what we tend to think of as being quite fundamental to consciousness, and there are a lot of ways in which LLMs can't and/or don't really change, and this strongly constrains how similar LLM consciousness can/could be to ours.
If the SEP isn't enough to trigger the thinking needed for you, just ask an LLM what I said, to "go through the ways in which LLMs do/don't/may exhibit phenomena that are generally what we consider fundamental aspects of consciousness". You'll see there are some clear answers, and some uncertainties and vagueness.
I am saying that, if you reject radical social constructionism (or solipsisms of various flavours, i.e. we are all just plugged into the matrix or some kind of simulation), then you must believe there is a real world out there independent of our consciousness / awareness of it. There must also be patterns / structure in that world, some of those patterns and structures being essentially constant, and those are what we call "true" (objective) facts about reality. BUT if you are a radical social constructionist or solipsist of some kind, then it can be perfectly coherent to reject any idea of objectivity or truth, except as contingent on social consensus (or personal beliefs, in the solipsistic case). Radical social constructionism being "discredited" is just a recognition that it basically forces you rapidly into incoherence.
> Which ways and how can it be demonstrated experimentally?
Try reading through the SEP article I linked above (https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/#ConCon), particularly sections 2, and then especially section 4. You'll see you don't even need to run experiments to answer certain questions, you can just logically prove there are certain aspects of consciousness LLMs can't have, or clearly already have. Others you'll see immediately need qualifying or more information to answer. EDIT: Or just ask any AI to list the ways in which LLMs can, cannot, and might be able to exhibit the various aspects of consciousness. It will give you a decent answer, likely in a pretty little table.
See e.g. 4.8, Dynamic Flow: LLMs basically can't have this, as their weights are frozen. You'd have to claim that the activations during inference are the dynamic component, but then that means LLMs are conscious only in the few seconds or even milliseconds during inference. Likewise, they don't have memory, so every inference is this consciousness being born anew, as it were, at least in current models.
You can of course go much further on even this specific point, but, the point is, there is lots of useful discussion and thinking to be had when you go through the aspects of consciousness in this way, and definitely at least some clear answers.
EDIT:
> That's not what the consciousness debate I see is about.
I just mean there are some similarities between the lobster consciousness debates and AI consciousness debates. Obviously the stakes and many aspects are different, I was just trying to illustrate why and how discussion and experiments can be useful and consequential here.
In fact, if you stop talking about consciousness, and go through all the various aspects of consciousness, the whole debate gets very interesting. There are various ways in which AI is very clearly conscious or exhibits / involves phenomena that are clearly involved in certain aspects of conscious, other ways in which AI already very clearly is missing other aspects, and then again some remaining ways which are unclear, and which may forever remain unclear.
Being clear about the different ways in which AI is, isn't, and might be conscious is a useful discussion and we still need to be having it.
EDIT: An analogy would be to recent shifts in whether or not lobsters feel pain, and so by extension, the ways in and degree to which lobsters can be considered consciousness. Research and debate has shifted opinions enough for parts of Europe to regulate certain methods of preparing them. But the ways in which lobsters are conscious and/or feel pain is an objective fact, regardless of what we decide.
Also, saying "I define consciousness as X" and then going on to show that, because I decree consciousness to be X, we don't need to worry about Y, Z, and so on, isn't pragmatic at all, unless you pick an X that everyone agrees on. The definition you give is something hardly anyone would agree on.
Social consensus probably isn't even an aspect of consciousness, but at least one can make that argument coherently, if you rephrase it as "part of the decision to call something 'conscious' or not involves social consensus". But this is also trivial and boring and not why anyone actually cares about the "is AI conscious" debate.
So anyone that starts going on about AI and consciousness without at least a sentence or two clarifying some basic definitions is basically either intellectually incompetent or attempting to use the emotional salience (and brain-numbing effect, it would seem) of the word to push some agenda. But they certainly don't care at all about understanding consciousness.
Passing isn't something that is only the responsibility of the passer, that of course is absurd. Most people don't walk on the very edge of a path, but slightly off from the center (or in the shade close to the buildings if hot, or far from the street if puddles and raining, and etc), and you may also be carrying things that make you take up a lot of space.
So, in practice, as a walker, you do in fact have to be aware of people approaching from behind, at least, if you aren't an ass, because it is often kind (or even necessary) to move aside a bit to make passing easier / possible. Earphone people are some of the biggest assholes in these scenarios.
EDIT: But I fully agree that once you get out of the chaos of the downtown core, or likely plenty of other cities, this is probably just not really a meaningful problem / tradeoff.
As long as people realize they are making this tradeoff, fine, I guess. But I wouldn't.
Your ending paragraph: "With enough experience, your own unique ideas will dominate your mind. That's when you finally feel in control." also reads as something that could probably also be seen as potentially bad / delusion, in spiritual contexts as well (real control is mostly illusion, you actually do often want other people's ideas to dominate the mind, lest you fall into solipsism / narcissism, etc). Not to pick at your short comment here or presume that though, but it definitely sets off a red flag of some kind.
You can scroll Twitter / read Hacker News or other sources of comments online, scroll TikTok / YouTube shorts slop-spam, read books, or constantly pipe in music / podcasts in any free moment (and these are very different and all can be good and bad in different ways), but if you are constantly fleeing boredom by grasping for whatever distraction is immediately available (even if this activity is typically seen as good, like "learning" or "reading books", or benign, like listening to music), this constant distraction has negative long-term consequences for personal growth.
There is a reason boredom comes up as crucial and important in spiritual practices (most meditation practices broadly involve forcing you to confront and learn to be comfortable with boredom, to some degree) and existential philosophy, and it is because boredom (especially existential boredom) is one way the mind tells you might not be being properly challenged, or that certain aspects of your life might not be truly fulfilling at the moment.
And sure, sometimes it isn't clear how to fix these issues, so distraction isn't inherently bad. But if all you do is distract, you'll flounder. So be wary IMO of habitually reaching for distraction (even if mild, like music / podcasts).
Avocado I don't personally consider to be either fruit or vegetable (it is a "tree fat"), and is more in the category of things like olives or seeds / nuts, in culinary and nutritional terms too. Calling avocado a fruit or vegetable feels extremely awkward, as does calling things like olives, capers, or, say, fresh green peppercorns. Starchy / root vegetables are not really what is meant by "vegetables" in these discussions either.
And yes, tropical fruits and berries actually have meaningful nutrients, and are better choices.
Literally all HN talks about is AI these days, and it is very, very clear that plenty of people are still writing lots of code, many finding AI makes them slower and causes more problems, and many making the reverse claims. There is always a rich mix of opinions and experiences here.
You would have to believe that literally everyone on HN is a bot (and also everyone on Reddit, Twitter, astralcodexten, or anywhere else online) to discount all these differing opinions in favor of "everyone I personally know" .
In both cases, you probably need to be rebalancing and not adding things, but, for the same reason, it is sensible to err on the side of much more veggies than fruits. However, because fruit tastes like candy (and perhaps because you don't have to cook them, generally), people reach for adding more fruit to their diets, and this is likely sub-optimal. You should almost certainly be eating much more vegetables than you should be eating fruit. I.e. I'd say healthy is more like 80% veggie, 20% fruit, if you are putting them in the same category.
Maybe 50/50 is perfectly good too, but it seems pretty clear 100% fruit and 0% veggie is the worst possible choice, but 100% veggie and 0% fruit is perfectly fine. This should bring into question the appropriateness of the label "healthy" for fruit.