ColdStream

It has been brought up before and it seems plausible. There is no guarantee that we have to leave the planet in any meaningful way or even survive for that matter.

Then there is a good chance we would never have moved up to a technological state that allowed us to leave the planet. We probably wouldn't also be facing blow back from digging up and burning the planets solar battery.

Love the planet as you love your self. Just be.

Easy to say, difficult to do.

We don't even need the oceans temperature to rise, as the arctic tundra permafrost melts the amount of plant material ready to release its CO2 is massive. Some estimate think it would double the amount of our total emissions if all of it defrosts.

But this did lead to one of the more ridiculous head line from a few years back.

Thawing Permafrost Is Artificially Chilled to Stabilize Alaska Oil Pipeline

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/thawing-permafros...

A preview of 2035.

Yep, once you learn about Latent temperature fusion, ones view on these things change drastically.

It also explains why boiling water doesn't spontaneously just explode into vapor once it hits that temperature

The future because of resource decline per capita and climate blow back, I suspect the future for many in the west will merely look like a rising tide of poverty.

The US Military hit it right on the head. Climate change is a risk multiplier. It takes already potentially big issues and makes them so much worse.

You know we might just be seeing the starting seed of the future legend of the Merica Atlantis.

The fabled sunken land of Mar-a-lago where the King in Orange's folly took his treasures to the dark depths.

Although after a few hundred years and many verbal re-tellings it might be the forgotten lands of Margaritaville. King Trump was a fan of a Cheeseburger in paradise. ;)

Cortisol is the hormone that creates tight social bonds. It is what make you love your kids so much. So the secret to a loving and kind society is to just pour this stuff in the drinking water supply, right?

No it strengthened social bonds, both toward family and friends and equally against others. It makes people VERY tribal.

Cortisol is also released in long term stressful situations. With a rising tide of poverty and climate blow back, I suspect stress will increase and so too will said tribalism.

What we see today with the rising popularist and isolationist political parties is but an echo of the future.

We see some of these tendencies when a few thousand or tens of thousands of refugees turn up in a country. What happens when this becomes millions? I have said it for years, many will be welcomed with open arms - those arms being machine guns, bombs and drones.

This is the dark future I fear and I hope I am wrong.

I do not have kids, it wasn't by choice. But what looked like something of a negative might actually turn out to be a near miss in future. Just keep your kids safe and try to have peace and compassion to others that are trying to do the same.

Funnily enough the water temperature is why many are so focused on the arctic sea ice. It is acting as a buffer that is keeping large parts of the ocean cooler beyond both reflecting sun light and also actively melting and releasing cool water into the ocean.

But as it is shrinking rapidly, there is an eye being kept to see when we hit a "Blue Ocean Event". That is coverage less that 1 million sq KM as that is effectively gone as far as functionality goes. Only 15 years ago this was thought to be something that might happen in the 22nd century, it looks like we might see this in the next decade.

You can test the impact of this at home. Get a glass of water and put some ice in it with a thermometer. Once down to temperature, the water won't change much as the ice will melt to keep the temperature stable. But as soon as it is all gone, the temperature will start to rise rapidly. This is because of Latent heat fusion. The amount of energy it takes to change ice to water.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enthalpy_of_fusion

The amount of energy it takes to break the bonds of ice at 0c to into water at 0c, is the same about of energy need to take that 0c water up to 71c. When the arctic is gone, we lose a HUGE buffer on global temperatures.

I said this elsewhere. Land temperature raises quicker than oceans. So a 2c increase globally is actually a 4c over land. If we hit 3c, that will be 6c over land.

So with a fever, 37c jumped up to 43c goes from normal and stable to a very quick death.

Not only are we heading there it might be a lot quicker than we anticipate. The warming is accelerating quickly as the CO2 is cumulative and the feed back loops get more intense.

The last decade has seen a 0.48c increase in temperature and due to the decade base line shifting every year and it is increasing in pace.

https://www.intelligentliving.co/global-warming-acceleration...

The more realistic climate scientists think we will blow past 2c by roughly 2035. We are on track to 3c by 2050 and emissions growth has yet to stop despite all the additional renewables being built. This is why many have said next year with the flow on effects of El Nino that we will be getting a preview of 2035.

Someone I know who worked in the climate sciences once put it so clearly to me.

An increase of 1 degree is global, and with 70% of the world being ocean that raises much slower, the temperature rise over land is effectively doubled. So 1c degree is 2c. A 2c world is 4c.

That when CO2 was 100 point less than the 280ppm baseline we had an ice age with glaciers down to the 40th(ish) parallels in the Northern Hemisphere. We have now pushed it 150 above the baseline in effectively 150 years and fast accelerating. What seems like something trivial, is actually forcing on an unbelievable scale.

Also a fun visualization, roughly speaking 1 part per million in water vapor is what a cloud looks like. If CO2 had the same visual properties as water, it would be pitch black on the ground.

People keep looking to the past for answers, and yes it does provide valuable context. But what we are doing now has never happened on this planet, we are blindly rushing into a future that is beyond comprehension. Some things will go worse than expected, some thing will go a lot better, but nobody really knows just yet.

Also to the last line "I am glad that I live far away from the effects", alas, this isn't like empires of the past that are geographically limited. Those that can collapse but there is still plenty of untouched lands and civilizations. We now live in a global system, a six continent supply chain. We will all be impacted.

Hahaha... sigh... takes a swig!

This was one of the big fears. That countries that had far more people than the western world would end up trying to chase that middle class lifestyle. And yet here we are.

I suspect we are going to be like the aphids on a rosebush that will suck it dry just trying to live and most of us go with it.

If we were to live closer to what many philosophers and religions of modesty, we probably would have never gone down this path. Yes, we wouldn't have most of the great stuff we have today but we also wouldn't be looking at a system that can lurch over and crash. There is no winning move in the universe just dances and responses.

We are doing loads, I just fear we cannot outrun Jevon's paradox. Until we start actively reducing emissions, we are just adding to the scale of consumption with no end in sight.

That we are still adding any fossil fuel based system today is something I would have figured would have stopped by now. I figured we would still have some legacy stuff, but overall would be decommissioning more than we would add. Instead, we just add to everything.

Yep, they are growing generation by any means possible.

While yes they can spin up and down, there is the deeper question of what it is all for.

This is why so many AI proponents always talk about future gains rather than what is happening today. It a lot of what it claimed to be coming doesn't happen then it will all look very silly.

Time will tell and depending on were you sit, either we will be there shortly or it will never happen.

> Yes, and usage is not decreasing. As solar is growing, it's only adding capacity, not replacing fossil fuels.

This is the key point. While yes, it is brilliant that we are adding loads of solar, wind and whatever - it is the final emissions that really matter. Regardless of how well meaning we are intended with our build outs, the emissions is really the only metric that counts when we are focusing on climate blow back.

I suspect that unless there is a consensus or at least a large majority in favor of it, nothing will be done.

Lets say the EU does geoengineering and then there are crop failures in India the next year. Their fault or not, they are going to get blamed for it and actions taken. The EU would become the scapegoat for any kind of weather/climate issues in future.

This is the trolley problem done at a global scale.

The one thing I have heard form mechanics is that cars from BYD seem to has better than expected manufacturing and engineering. They haven't cut corners were you would expect for the price. Not sure how the electrics will hold a decade into the future but but they have good bones.

China is hungry in a way others aren't. It is driving them to push far harder and faster because of this. Don't know it will be sustainable long term but it looks good now.

The age old problem of mobile chips have brilliant performance for about 15 seconds until they thermal throttle.

If you are just using apps, 15 seconds is more than enough to launch and setup an app, for anything more it will be down graded a little.

Still dang impressive but the form factor becomes the limiting factor.

I do wonder how he will be seen in the books of history. I suspect it isn't going to be anywhere near as imposing and grand as many will think. For all the noise and grand pronouncements he makes, the lack of focus dilutes his capabilities and the story he is trying to make. He will be remembered in the books but also somewhat forgotten from common memory quicker than you would anticipate. It is like George W Bush, unless prompted, many kind of forget about him and that was only 18 years ago.

Also I suspect that the two lasting legacies of Trump will be him trashing the trust of the US with trade partners and dragging the US in to a war with Iran. Iran was the political third rail you do not touch, and he touched it, and now that might be his lasting legacy. The shine is wearing off for many supporters, there will always be the MAGA die hards, but the blow back is slowly making some of the less indoctrinated start to at least question it a little even if they still support him.

I think his closest comparison is Boris Yeltsin. Tried to tear government structures down quick with a promise of brighter tomorrow via corporate control but eventually it end up with an economy being crushed under the weight of its debts. Russia had a domestic default in 1998 due to this. The details will differ on the US.

By this comparison, I do not fear Trump and his personal legacy, that will be interesting but nothing too exciting in retrospect. By comparison of what could be coming he will be seen as a moderate. The main story is that, the path he has opened up will allow others that are far more capable, calculated and vindictive to grab hold of power. Who will be the Vladimir Putin of the US?

Pretty much. While we should keep an eye on these folks just in case anything comes up, so far it hasn't been a major issue.

Exactly. I have seen some estimates that if you tear down a forest and then let it re-grow it is estimated to be upwards of 300 years until it starts to resemble the kind of diversity that was originally present.

Tree counts or green coverage is an awfully reductionist statistic. It can use a truthful statistic to imply something that isn't as clean cut as presented.

I said it with the Wii bootable OSX, this might be a decent way to get access to older PPC OSX software but with loads of available hardware around.

The issue with the Wii version was it running in 88MB of RAM, at least with 512MB on X360 this is actually in the ball park of usable. It also doesn't say if it uses multiple cores or not, but even with a single core it should be fine even with in-order execution.

For as awesome as Tiger was, it was RAM heavy compared with Windows XP at the time. 512MB really felt like a minimum to getting it running well, and 1GB if it really wanted to fly.

Ouch! I'm not a huge fan of Dalio, I think he misses some big picture stuff outside of economics but when it comes to just economics he has a fairly good grip on it. So when he is saying that, interesting times ahead. Not saying he is right but that is a fascinating signal of were things are going.

As many have said, Trump is a symptom of a deeper issue.

Once is an accident, twice is a pattern. It isn't that Trump specifically is the problem it is that there is a sizable enough part of the US population that will actively vote in that kind of governance.

Trump will leave, either via election, being ousted or via the Grim reaper. But the things that got him to that position are still very much in place and potentially even stronger than ever.

I said it before he even got elected the first time, he is an echo of the future that is coming. A prototype of something that will be handled more competently in future for better or worse.