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Balinares

836 karma · joined August 5, 2024

I was born on Earth, and have been living there ever since.
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Balinares··on Run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next (125B) on consumer hardware (RTX 4090) at 100T/s
3.8 is absolutely quite a bit better than 3.5. My go-to quick benchmark is a bit like yours, implementing a simple but complete game in pygame. Most small models output code that's too buggy to be fixable. Qwen 3.8 wrote buggy code too, but the bugs were minor, and the game legitimately playable and fun.

That said, I've not found it very reliable, especially at the low quant required to run on my hardware. It's very capable for its size, enough to be legitimately useful, but it's never certain whether it will hit its capability peak on a given attempt, and sometimes you have to give it multiple tries.

Balinares··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
100% wealth tax rate past e.g. $999M -- capping wealth like a Zelda wallet -- would address a certain number of issues around the many externalities of unbounded, bottomless greed.

Mind you, I don't think that's ever happening, considering that one such issue is there's currently nothing to keep a dishonest actor who ended up beyond that threshold from spending mountains of cash (still a small fraction of the total there) toward convincing those susceptible to such that a system which permits such dishonest actors is good akshyually.

Balinares··on AI borrowers face tough sell in risky corners of US credit market
Your example supports the thesis that R&D tax credits are in fact decorrelated from R&D successes so I'm confused what point you are trying to make.
Balinares··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
The Macron government went out of its way to cut taxes for the wealthiest percentiles. Debt exploded, costs were cut, infrastructure went unmaintained (which only ended up adding to structural costs), but the GDP growth remained anemic.

However the wealth of the wealthiest increased substantially, so there's that, I guess.

Balinares··on Denying Insulin and Meds: Disturbing Pictures of Neglect in ICE Mortality Report
This is a good question. It's worth noting that the US forces did not in fact uniformly liberate every concentration camps prisoner: they left those incarcerated for being homosexual. So even back then the lines were blurrier than commonly taught.
Balinares··on Pentagon Influencer Called Liberal Women 'Pestilence' Who Will End Civilization
I mean, there is such a thing as reality, and it exists regardless of your observing it; we can agree on this much, I'm sure?
Balinares··on PS5 Relapse Exploit
Also super fast loading times. Playing e.g. RDR2 on a physical console, by comparison, is painful.

Stadia worked absurdly well. One of the beta games was Thumper, a demanding rhythm game (I might be the reason why it was in the beta lineup actually). How well did that work out? Well, the latency made it hard to play... until I switched my TV to so-called "gaming mode". And then it was fine.

No kidding. The TV was introducing more latency than Stadia itself.

I also once tested it on hotel wifi. It worked great.

(Mind you, this was in Europe. YMMV.)

The business model however was terrible and killed the product IMO. Which, honestly, good: Stadia would have killed video game archiving efforts. If a publisher folds and Stadia and similar platforms stop streaming its streaming-exclusives, then those games are gone. Not worth it, no matter how well it worked.

Balinares··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
You'd think reducing crime and saving money in the process would be enough incentive, but it turns out that can be a hard sell on a public that's been trained to relish in seeing violence applied to people presented as bad. I've found that there are people so keenly keyed to said relish that they'll just dead refuse to believe that supportive approaches to drug addiction can be cheaper than coercive approaches with better results to boot, and that's kind of tragic honestly.
Balinares··on Claude Opus 5.5
Unless they already have something similar of their own, which is always possible, they'd be stupid not to. I don't suppose we'll ever know, though. It would not be a good look if after the trillions of dollars that have been thrown at US labs, investors found out that they're down to copying Chinese tech.
Balinares··on MiMo v2.6
I don't understand on what you are basing this reasoning? If a well educated workforce can produce Fable then why couldn't a well educated workforce produce MiMo?

Besides, the latter actually published and open-sourced its RL stack to make it reproducible, which would in fact make it more trustworthy than the models you are speculating were distilled.

Balinares··on Bonsai 2 27B: Near-Lossless Compression in a 9x Smaller Footprint
I wonder how well it performs in practice, because I can't help seriously doubting those benchmarks. That would put this 6GB model in Opus 4.6+ ballpark. Granted, that's mostly to Qwen 3.8's credit, but it's hard to believe that Qwen's already unbelievable capability density can still be compressed this much more.
Balinares··on 25 years of mass surveillance is enough
The number of people abject enough to end up with transphobic views is thankfully nowhere near that. Most people, as it turns out, are not creepily obsessed with other people's genitals. Most people also aren't driven by a horrible urge to find minorities to torment. Though those who are would sure claim otherwise, of course; trying to normalize their awfulness is part of the playbook.
Balinares··on 25 years of mass surveillance is enough
Because then they'll move on to the next victims and in having surrendered without even a fight you've granted them momentum for no good reason whatsoever, and you'll have fewer allies left too.
Balinares··on I can't stop thinking about Papua New Guinea
You are however under no obligation to grant your instincts unrestricted access to the pilot seat.
Balinares··on Irish, Scottish and Welsh leaders meet to plan break-up of United Kingdom
Scotland at least mulled independence quite seriously pre-Brexit, and one of the strongest arguments against which the UK advanced was that in leaving the UK Scotland would also leave the EU. The EU presidency, at the time held by Spain which was also concerned about its own independantist movement, supported that argument.

Then the UK voted for Brexit. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against but England voted for it, and it outweighs both, so the UK left, dragging Scotland and Northern Ireland along and out of the EU. Neither were hugely amused.

So to answer your question, the Venn would likely be somewhat disjoint. That's a simple summary of a messy bag of thorns, though, so the details are likely way more nuanced.

Balinares··on An open letter to Dario: if you mean it, open the weights
He sells himself as an ethical guy, and doing things that are broadly positive for everyone even if they're against your own personal self-interest is basic ethicality.
Balinares··on AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement
How about connecting the sadist to the caring environment where they might heal and, in time, learn empathy.
Balinares··on I resigned from Anthropic today
Humans need food. Food does not just appear in supermarkets.
Balinares··on "We Have to Assume That the Internet Will Go Offline in the Next Few Years"
Nvidia is party to a number of circular funding deals that would land them in an exciting situation if the other involved parties, i.e. frontier US labs, were to bite the bullet, for instance if the market in general broadly switched to open weight models as better value for the dollar.
Balinares··on GLM-5.3-Flash
Thank you, I know about those. And I'll stick with this quant. Normally I'd be with yout there, but Qwen 3.8 is turning out to be good at self-correcting, and the free memory I can use for extra context is worthwhile.
Balinares··on I Don't Think I Can Stay in Tech
OP is calling blatant fascism fascism. I am utterly baffled by your position.
Balinares··on I Don't Think I Can Stay in Tech
Disagreeing with fascism seems like a reasonable position to me.
Balinares··on True Rate of Unemployment
For real. I'd pay good money for a concierge service to find me the right person.
Balinares··on Sovereign Tech Agency invests €500k in Flatpak
The idea of democracies is that the government is answerable to its people, though the idea may seem quaint in this day and age.
Balinares··on GLM-5.3-Flash
I've found it tends toward long thinking loops even for simple tasks (and any quantization seems to increase their length), but those do exit eventually, unlike with Qwen 3.6.

I use the Unsloth UD_Q2_K_XL GGUF with default parameters, along with that custom template linked elsewhere in the thread, and no K/V cache quantization.

Balinares··on GLM-5.3-Flash
Interestingly, I've found the output of Qwen 3.8 27B to be competitive with Opus (4.6-ish anyway, not quite 4.8), but the experience is very different.

Where Opus has seen it before and knows how to do it, Qwen knows how to work it out. It turns out it's surprisingly capable at working things out. The obvious drawback is that it takes tokens and time.

All the same, getting to run something this capable locally is momentous, and suggests to me that streaming tokens from colossal data centers might not be the long term path forward.

Balinares··on Unsloth Dynamic 3.0 GGUFs
Wow, interesting. What KV cache quantization do you use?
Balinares··on Unsloth Dynamic 3.0 GGUFs
I anecdotally observed the same.

Interestingly, it also seems to tend toward self-correcting, which makes lower quantizations borderline usable. There'll be more faffing around, but still converging toward a solution. I wonder if that's a deliberate product of its RL.

Balinares··on Cerebras CS-4
Qwen 3.8 27B beats Opus, Fable and GPT 5.6 by a comfortable margin on the AA-Omniscience Hallucination Rate benchmark.
Balinares··on Qwen3.8 27B scores 52 on Artificial Analysis
And once again, Qwen 3.8 27B beats Opus 4.6, what the hell.

It's both funny and a bit terrifying and I still can't quite believe it. It runs decently on a gaming PC! Opus 4.6 came out only 6 months ago and was then broadly considered the new SOTA by a comfortable margin! How in hell did they package capability in the ballpark of a Feb 2026 frontier SOTA into 27B?!

More importantly, what's the point of building monster-scale data centers on unprecedented amounts of debt when a more than good enough model runs on a GPU from a couple years ago?

The coming months are going to be exciting, that's for sure...

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