2,672 karma · joined April 17, 2008
I don't have anything against a non-profit CEO paying themselves well if they also pay their employees well. Many do not, with some unspoken culture of employees needing to accept meager compensation so that resources can be directed toward the core mission whose objectives are fluid and progress often difficult to measure.
We here in Canada have been running the interest rate increase experiment ahead of the US. We've also had a much worse run up in housing prices. There are rundown shacks in Oshawa, Ontario selling for more than nice homes in Los Angeles. Where the hell is Oshawa? That's the whole point, it really doesn't matter but it's a former General Motors factory town about 1 hour east of Toronto.
Two months ago the real estate bulls were saying what you were saying now about supply. But the numbers are in for major areas like the greater Toronto area after a single 50 bps increase this past quarter like the one the Fed just dropped down south. Some suburbs of Toronto have already seen median prices drop 10-20% off their January/February 2022 peak prices [1].
The volume of home sales has plunged 41% in Toronto [2] as the market absorbed the 0.5% interest rate hike. And we haven't seen anything yet. A huge chunk of the buyers today have pre-approvals with interest rates from 75 bps ago. Around June 1 these buyers need to commit to a purchase to provide enough time for their lenders to close the deal at the old interest rates before those expire. The Bank of Canada is also expected to make a further 50 bps to 100 bps jump in rates in early June.
Anecdotally, there are already horror stories of over leveraged buyers -- perhaps amateur investors or a family that stretched themselves to the limit to buy -- only for their deal to fall through because the banks won't appraise the home at what they agreed to pay for it.
As a wannabe first time homebuyer myself, I've heard every argument you've said repeated ad nauseum up here in Canada the past half year by real estate bulls -- who I might add, have been totally right in their assessment of our crazy market which could only go up for perhaps the past 15 years -- only for the market sentiment to completely change overnight within a month or two of the 0.5% interest rate hike.
[1]: https://preview.redd.it/w61ns3b7jgx81.jpg?width=1024&auto=we...
[2]: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-home-sales-plunge-41-in-...
Having said that, I've just skimmed the Nature article. But what stands out is that they had 86 days of unsuccessful communication before they changed strategies and then all of a sudden started reporting success. I really hope this works but we should remain skeptical for the possibility of abuse here. Other commenters in this thread have reported that the researchers have committed misconduct in their brain research.
The only thing I fear more than being in the discussed patient's situation is being in their situation and having my thoughts incorrectly interpreted at best or outright manipulated at worst.
If you can find an adapter that uses the Realtek 8156 chipset, which I believe the CalDigit TS4 uses, macOS will utilize the NCM driver and your performance will be rock solid.
ECM is a very primitive USB protocol for ethernet, whereas NCM is a more modern and performant one. NCM is to ECM as UASP is to BOT mode, if you're familiar with USB external drives.
Furthermore, several stories resemble this one where a fertility doctor used his own sperm and that is considered particularly egregious. Not only for the reasons mentioned above, but because doing so is considered lying by omission. There are also notions of fairness with respect to fathering children: don't father too many and fulfill your responsibilities towards the ones you do. Biologically fathering dozens if not hundreds of children and having nothing to do with them afterward is considered unfair to the children, even if they happen to have a real father who raises them.
Bitcoin is a speculative asset like housing and used cars currently are in 2022. But the similarities end there. All the other speculative asset classes have been triggered precisely due to quantitative easing policies. Their current prices have been derived from this fiscal policy. As ridiculous as it sounds, bitcoin’s price is quite literally a bet against the future performance of these world currencies. As the speculative asset classes have their foundation in current fiscal policy, Bitcoin is a bet against their performance too.
Bitcoin has minimal carrying costs as an asset. The same can’t be true of other speculative assets like homes which have become financial instruments due to investors pouring their wealth into anything besides currencies in a desperate attempt to hold value over time. In many countries now, and increasingly so, the only way to profit off housing is through appreciation. Rent will not cover the carrying costs of the mortgages taken out against these homes. These assets have entered bubble territory, decoupling from any rational metric like average incomes.
Holding Bitcoin costs essentially nothing. Sure, there are idiots who invested through leverage. But there are many more who haven’t who can afford to hold on through all sorts of adversity. That makes it quite unlike these other speculative assets.
As a backing store for central banks, it holds value because it’s auditable. Bretton Woods fell apart in no small part due to countries becoming sceptical that other countries actually held the gold they said they did. The amount of Bitcoin each central bank holds would easily be auditable by others and that makes it valuable.
It only sounds foolish because we are used to thinking of measuring Bitcoin against the dollar. Rather, view the amount of Bitcoin each central bank would hold as an auditable hash of all its assets. Then view the digital currencies these central banks would issue as denominated in fractional units of this.
In the world where we value Bitcoin against USD, it sounds foolish because we don’t have enough Bitcoin to act as a foundation for all of it. But what if we have too much money in the world? Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million limit provides a means of truly measuring the rate at which currencies are inflated. Some inflation is of course desirable and Bitcoin could be an inherent regulator ensuring a healthy amount of inflation.
Note, this perspective equally pisses off Bitcoin skeptics and libertarian die hard hodlers. I have a very good chance of being wrong of course. But it’s not as farfetched as we’d initially suspect either. The biggest reason against this scenario isn’t the financial aspect, but the incredible shift in power that would result.
Current Bitcoin investors would find themselves suddenly incredibly wealthy and powerful. We don’t typically see shifts in power like this. But it happened to Saudi Arabia and other people who struck it suddenly rich (and powerful) with oil. So it isn’t unprecedented.
I also think there will be digital dollars issued by central banks. In that respect, I don't see Bitcoin being used for day to day financial transactions. I see it being used as a backing value store for these digital dollars though.
I think economists and central banks throughout the world are reluctantly coming to grips with the effects of going off Bretton Woods:
- There is more influence over financial cycles so they can be smoothed over to help with the functioning of day to day life. This is desirable.
- The above influence has gone too far and has created an epic asset bubble and economic disparity that is even concerning to many of the world's most powerful and wealthy (i.e., it's creating an existential risk to them). Obviously this is undesirable and even worse, the central banks have no potential solutions to deal with this in their existing toolchain.
Why do I think bitcoin will win out? Somewhat for the same reasons I'm skeptical of that backdoor scenario. The major national governments have little trust amongst themselves, this trust is getting worse, and we're seeing an adversarial situation play out.
- China and some other economies outside the G7 want off of the USD as a reserve currency
- The G7 are reluctant to accept a world in which China exerts the financial influence they give up
All will realize something in the world's financial system has to change and for the sake of world peace a new arrangement is worth a shot. But none of these adversaries trust each other in such a way that a nationally derived crypto would be acceptable as the basis for a value backing store. Furthermore, existing assets will inherently be untrustworthy too because they're in a bubble. Nobody knows the true value of a house any more. Step in crypto...
- I don't think it will be Ethereum because as I said, reputation has been tarnished (there may be Russian influence). But it also tries to do too much and that may be undesirable for a value backing store.
- I think it will end up being Bitcoin simply because it's a lot more simple. It does less. And furthermore, nobody really knows who invented it so it is inherently not tied to any given nation. Or at least there's plausible deniability about it having been invented by a particular state.
- Other cryptos are distant runners up to these two main players so I don't see any other viable alternatives
Still... I think the speculative scenario is unlikely. I myself am speculating massively here. But what I think is far more likely to happen with respect to crypto is that an international agreement akin to the Bretton Woods System is negotiated that mandates central banks hold a store of value such as Bitcoin. This will provide some foundation of measure for all currencies to be valued against. But the current financial system layer on top will remain intact.
Note, I'm an early Bitcoin hodler and have remained strongly suspicious of Putin's interest in Ethereum with agreements between the foundation and VEB like this one (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2017/08/31/misunderstanding...), its handling of the DAO event, and Eth2.0's coincidental timing (its delays too) with the Ukraine invasion.
My somewhat speculative paranoia follows, but I strongly suspect Ethereum will NOT play a part in this new system because of the above issues. I think Putin calculated that Ethereum might be a viable alternative to a widespread financial system replacement that could have provided a means of bypassing any sanctions, which is why he went ahead with the Ukraine invasion.
In the end, if this Bretton Woods 2.0 system comes into effect, bitcoin will have failed to become the libertarian financial tool many people hoped it would. But its utility as a store of value can't be ignored and so it will have been co-opted/integrated into the existing financial system. It'll be another example of techno-utopianism naiveté like the 90s style vision of the web.
Putin isn't crazy enough to use strategic nuclear weapons. He's absolutely enough of a sociopath to use tactical nukes, particularly to avoid a potentially brutal urban assault on kyiv. I hope I'm wrong. But when you consider Belarus and Russia just completed nuclear drills in the past month and they're using a lot of conscripts in their first wave, it can't be ruled out.
Today, some of these issues are being litigated faster than they were in the past. But don't be mistaken. Nike almost dropped Colin Kaepernick in the heat of the moment of his controversy. They only embraced him a few years later when it was safe to do so. I suspect Jennifer Sey drank her own koolaid in thinking that she'd be able to come out one way or the other on this still hotly contested issue.
Marketers choose their words carefully and more importantly than that, refrain from taking a stand until they know precisely how it can be dutifully exploited for their brand's needs. You might dislike this. But that's the game that's played in that industry. There's a reason that corporations, and the brands which encapsulate their identities, have been called psychopaths.
Swift isn't alone in this respect. I think TypeScript is another example of a language which started out claiming to offer a better experience than Javascript only to become very complex. I'm sure that this added complexity helps some programmers some of the time. But just like CISC was a dead end and all computer chips are essentially RISC-based today, I suspect the pendulum may have swung too far in terms of adding features to some of these developer-friendly languages.
But, it's a contrarian view for a reason. I'm just somebody who fell in love with the simplicity of Objective-C almost 20 years ago, before the iPhone was a thing. So I may be looking back at things with rose tinted glasses.
Apple's shift to Swift has caused a lot of software to be rewritten. It's not obvious that the reduction in software correctness bugs which Swift provides offsets the kind of bugs that are the result of rewriting software. Apple's software rewrites have introduced very little tangible benefit to the end customer while creating lots of software gremlins which are very annoying to them. Worse, focussing engineering resources on rewriting existing apps in Swift vs pushing the apps forward in terms of UX and features have allowed competition to catch up and surpass Apple in several areas that do matter to customers.
In hindsight, there will be a lingering question of if it would have been better for Apple to have continued to evolve Objective-C further in ways that could have provided similar technical benefits to Swift's introduction. At best the shift to Swift will have been seen as a necessary evil that exposed Apple's flanks. At worst, it will have been considered an unnecessary technical exercise that may have been started as a way to retain top technical talent, but even failed long-term in that respect.
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/october-cr...
When we looked at the whole 800-year timescale, our temperature and salinity records look pretty constant,” said co-lead author Dr Tesi Tommaso from the Institute of Polar Sciences of the National Research Council in Bologna. “But all of a sudden at the start of the 20th century, you get this marked change in temperature and salinity – it really sticks out.
My pet theory is Russia is playing both sides of this. The SCO has been around for 20 some odd years. But recently China and Russia have been fucking with each other and it primarily involves inviting India and Pakistan to join the pact. Anyhow, I imagine Putin is arming and possibly coordinating funding to the Taliban. Once in power the Taliban will become China’s problem in the region and may very well have some excursions past their border with China. So Putin will be able to swoop in to assist with additional military might. It may even become a showcase for the SCO as a NATO-like coalition.
It’ll achieve two objectives: showing that China now is a regional military influence in a former US sphere of influence, and that Russia is still itself a military power that can throw its weight around. And just like the US in Afghanistan and the Soviets before it, this will become China’s problem to deal with long term.
It was explained to us in simple terms that everyone's experience with the world is unique. As such, there is no such thing as unbiased sources and we should always consume news critically. They were simpler times. The most political it got was when my teacher brought in the 3 main newspapers in our area and candidly shared with the class how they were stereotyped in their political editorial leanings. For Americans, think of it like sharing this statement: "Fox News leans toward Republican policies. The New York Times leans toward Democrat policies. USA Today is somewhere in between."
There wasn't any discussion of whether these newspapers were accurate or inaccurate. Fact checks weren't rattled off to us about each source. Rather, the teacher kindly explained to us that it was impossible to be unbiased and we did exercises to critically interpret news sources and see how the same topic might be covered by multiple sources.
I'm going on a bit of an aside for the historical context in which I had these lessons for the next two paragraphs, so feel free to skip to the final paragraph.
In some ways while they were simpler times informationally, Canada was going through wilder times politically back then. There's an argument to be made that Canada as a country was more divided in the early 1990s than the US is today. Québec separation was a very real possibility during this time and actively being sought within our political system. This wasn't just the online pissing contests that some Americans have talking about California or Texas separating from the union. Separatist parties were elected both at Québec's provincial level and as the official opposition party in Canada [EDIT: for Americans unfamiliar with this concept, our Prime Minister and the ruling party had to spend the majority of their daily routine responding to attacks from separatists in the House of Commons and every day the news would have this front-and-centre].
For those too young to remember, the political turmoil culminated in a referendum in the province of Québec -- 50.58% to stay in Canada and 49.42% to become an independent country. The Canadian military had to strategically fly its CF-18s out of their Québec base to American ones in case the referendum passed lest they fall into a foreign nation's hands. Our Prime Minister was busy actively seeking the support of President Bill Clinton and shoring up our gold supplies while the would-be leader of an independent Québec had an official visit to France complete with red carpet and television crews to discuss what their relationship would be once Québec separated.
What's my point? I suppose just to give Americans who still believe in the core concept of the country, a bit of hope. As divided as things are today, they can quickly change. Furthermore, I believe that it is possible to teach these things so they have real merit and aren't just tools of the current political ruling party even in uncertain and highly divided times.
In short, he probably owes no tax from this act.
Some of the smartest people in the field are actively trying to obscure its limitations. The author of this article is more modest but even still it’s a PR rebuttal and a bullshit fear tactic: a “You know what? Things are really bad but what would be worse is if you didn’t listen to us”.
My personal take is that the field is stuck in an existential local minima and are self-conscious about it: similar to how astronomy was stuck on the model of concentric spheres. I think everybody who practices the field is unconsciously aware of it too which is why they lean on hand-waving charts and opaque math that anybody in a harder science would instinctively call bullshit on. How psychology got to be the poster boy for the replication crisis in the social sciences and not economics is baffling given the scope and depth of influence the field has had on the world.
But don't take my word for it... https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-abstract/127/605/F236/50...
We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under‐powered. The median statistical power is 18%, or less. A simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered (power ≥ 80%) reveals that nearly 80% of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated; typically, by a factor of two and with one‐third inflated by a factor of four or more.Universities just so happened to be a practically convenient location for medical doctors and professional engineers to get their education. But universities were never supposed to be general vocational learning institutions.
Business schools are just one department in a long line who wanted to push the notion that people need to jump through their hoops to learn a particular discipline well enough to perform a role professionally. Nothing could be further from the truth and in pushing this myth, they've helped contribute to systemic fault lines that could ultimately undermine western society and democracy itself. They've heavily indebted learning that people were traditionally paid to do via apprenticeship. They have invented credentials for disciplines which don't need them and offer no financial path to ever provide a return on the learning investment. They've promoted the idea that useful learning can only happen within their walls and under their syllabus.
But I'm off on a tangent. Business schools specifically have essentially been cosplaying as something they are not: schools teaching a rigourous applied science. As Medical School is to Biology, Math and Chemistry, Business School is to Economics. But economics as a social science had just not advanced far enough along to provide meaningful insight. So business schools did the next best thing which was to create the illusion of an advanced science by helping backfill, promote, and apply bullshit economic theory. This went hand-in-hand with a conscious effort to create prestige like the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science.
But the illusion is starting to all fall apart under the scrutiny of disastrous political policies, gutted zombie corporations, and a broken social contract, all under their direct sphere of influence. The irony is that in aspiring to have the same prestige as doctors and engineers, business schools have actually done far more damage to society, the environment, and our future than they could have hoped to imagine if they went back to their traditional proprietary school roots.
Business schools are very worried that society will realize that being a smart autodidact is a better recipe for success in business than paying six figures to earn an M.B.A..
If this rant resonated with you, here's an interview with the author of book, called Nothing Succeeds Like Failure: The Sad History of American Business Schools: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/10/04/author-discus...
I'm so sorry to hear a bunch of gamers on Reddit are having issues getting this thing to run well on their systems. There appears to be an older Nvidia driver issue that's limiting utilization to low tens causing weird glitches in the rendering for people. But I tested it on my aging AMD card in an eGPU on my MBP i9 at 1080p with all the settings turned to Ultra. Even there it runs well for the complexity and liveliness of the city; about 30-40fps.
Comparing the GeForce NOW remote rendering with ray tracing against my locally AMD rendering, I much prefer the GeForce NOW version with ray tracing. The game makes really good use of lighting and seeing subtle reflections throughout the game as they would be in real life makes me prefer the GeForce NOW version.
NOTE: I went with GeForce NOW because it supports ray tracing. Stadia does not, so just be aware of that.
1. Do frontline healthcare workers also "touch [their] face" when wearing these masks for the same reasons regular people do? I imagine it's to adjust the fit? If the answer is no, is it because they have been educated not to? People, at least where I am in Canada, are being told not to touch our faces already. Can we not just extend the messaging to be "avoid touching your face, even when wearing a mask"?
2. If increased face touching when wearing a mask is truly a problem, would we not expect Hong Kong and Taiwan to have a worse community spread situation? Why is it that they have this contained? Again, the example is anecdotal. But coincidentally, they're both locations that learned from SARS and H1N1 and mask wearing is a foundational part of their public health response.
There's anecdotal evidence from places like Taiwan and Hong Kong that masks are somewhat helpful and very little real evidence that they're harmful except in terms of making masks unavailable to frontline health workers. I firmly believe that in hindsight, public health agencies in the west will realize they did a lot of harm by saying masks were worthless.
To give you an idea of what we're dealing with in this government, it is headed by a complete shit show of a politician. He's the older brother of the late crack smoking mayor and is a cheap dollar store equivalent of a populist. He basically got voted in because the Liberal government was long in the tooth having governed for 15 years. People wanted change for the sake of change and if that meant throwing out a well researched cannabis legalization plan, then so be it. Of course, the asme people that voted for the premier are some of the loudest to complain how shitty the current legal cannabis situation is.
My understanding is that for the 15" MBPs, the built-in discrete GPU would always be used to drive an external display. So the following doesn't apply for them. But the 13" MBPs have the built-in Intel graphics and you can definitely feel a difference driving even one bigger external display using Intel graphics vs something more substantial like an AMD Polaris (RX580/RX590) or Vega cards.