27 karma · joined July 1, 2019
- I fit a complex, difficult to interpret model to a dataset, attempting for forecast my sales (structure of the dataset largely irrelevant for this example)
- I take an entry from the training set and decrease the value of some price attribute by 15%, leaving everything else unchanged
- I try to predict the sales for the entry I just created using the trained model
- What happens if the model now predicts lower sales? There is a clear relationship between price and sales volume going in the opposite direction. Would lowering my prices by 15% really lead to a decrease in my sales? How do you track what's happening in the model to create this forecast? Did I use the wrong model? Was my training data incorrect? How do you explain this to a client or to a product user?
It isn't a step down that path though. With the iPhone/iPod/iPad the new interface completely changes how you use the device (moving to a phone without physical keys for example). The Macbook touchbar doesn't do that, it just makes things a bit awkward by adding an additional way to interface with your device.
Tidyverse is massively overrated if you ask me. The good parts of it (dplyr and ggplot) are nice for interactive work. And that's about it - if you're deploying the code in an application, you're best off sticking to base R as much as possible.
We know that improvements in living conditions lead to reduced fertility. And climate change will worsen living conditions, not improve them. So if areas with poor living conditions have high fertility now, why would even worse conditions (due to climate change) reduce their fertility? Sure, the outcomes and quality of life of the children will be even worse than it is but I can't see how that will impact rates of reproduction.
The problem is neither IoT nor ES - whoever built this just didn't bother to implement even basic security.