1) Cowen is saying that the rich engage in tax avoidance. While, in the article Meagher is describing “how and why the estate tax became part of the pro-family agenda of social conservatives.”
(There’s a ton of data on it: see “Tax Avoidance Saves Wealthiest Americans $3 Trillion Each Year” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/07/tax-avoidance_n_242...)
2) re: “This seems very speculative.” The point that I’m making is about the time value of money. (I’m not making a Reaganomics supply side argument.) My point is, a dollar before a death tax is worth a lot more than after the death tax --- there’s enormous evidence for that (and even without a death tax based on time value decay alone it is true.) Admittedly, I am assuming that rich people would rather not voluntarily give money to the government, even if they don’t want to give it to their heirs. (ie. The Giving Pledge the super rich make to philanthropy.)