As a heavy user of FFmpeg/libav, for VLC (I'm the VideoLAN president), the drama has been huge, and more aggressive than most forks we've seen in the open source community.
Most of the information you find online is biased, wrong or down-right lying, including the usual blogposts that are quoted from one side or the other one. (like the pkh.me pasted or the Debian wiki one)
Whose fault is it? Well, it's a bit complex to answer, and there has been very dick moves from both sides. Especially since the beginning of the story started in private and was not reported publicly.
Who is doing more work between the forks? That's also very hard to answer, because most of the libavcodec and libavformat work has been done in libav, but most of the libavfilter, ffmpeg and tools work has been done in FFmpeg.
What you should know is that the current codebase of FFmpeg is messier compared to libav, but has quite a few more features, notably filters and more formats supported.
Choosing one or the other gives you different set of features, but mostly different set of bugs and level of support of codecs. It's a big mess...