"Commodities in a meltdown, but coal, uranium offer some hope "
"Copper has hit a six-year low"
"Nickel took another hit, ending at $US11,255/tonne while lead shed more value to close at $US1716/tonne."
"Aluminium continues to weaken. ANZ says demand in Europe has failed to pick up, underlying Chinese demand is weak"
Admittedly Australia is just the mining division of China so its hard not to expect them to crash. Still, Australia has been in an impressive housing bubble at least three times over trendline because China only grows and exports to China only grow, well, at least they only and always grow until they don't. That'll have some impact on financials in Australia and then the world.
Nickel, for example, used to be pretty stable, almost "boring" in the 90s and before. Then it tripled in the boom, and has collapsed since then but is still about twice over trendline. This is interesting to think about technologically, imagine the price of NiMH batteries has been 3x trendline for the last couple years and "should eventually" drop to about a third of present price. Of course its little consolation that hybrid cars will be cheaper if you're unemployed because the economy crashed, but "someday" hybrid battery packs will only cost a couple hundred bucks. We might all be standing in church soup lines for food, but at least hybrid batteries will be cheap.
I'm quite worried about it personally.
How much money do Chinese investors have invested outside of China? If they bought Chinese shares on margin, they may end up selling assets globally to cover.
My (admittedly limited) understanding is that most economists are still expecting significant growth in China this year, though not as strong as previous years.
Also, the recent financial crisis in the US was partially/mostly driven by a debt crisis (housing/mortgage issues), which historically has had far larger and longer-term impacts than a stock market crash/correction.
But, even in the US, I think stock markets are like a balloon tied to the wrist of a toddler on a windy day. They may very generally track where some part of the economy is, but there's too much interference and interpretation to get a precise picture. Even worse, the length of the string is unclear.
The 1987 crash was the largest in US history. In one day, the Dow Jones dropped 22%. Yet, it didn't even cause a recession.