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Comment by monk_e_boy | Hacker News Reader

I think people in the 2nd hand car market (like me) will quickly switch to electric. They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix. Nearly all my cars die with head gasket issues, or oil leaks or timing belt issues. does quick count so that's 4 of my cars and 2 of my partners.

Electric engines won't die like that. And when they do, just grab a used one from a junked car and off you go. With 'in wheel' electric motors, this may be as simple as changing a wheel. This is huge for the 2nd hand market. Most people I know who aren't 'techies' are really looking forward to electric cars.

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True, but there's at least one really expensive component of electric cars that needs replacement every 8 to 10 years: the battery. I think the current price is about $10000 for the battery if you order from Tesla in advance.

Maintenance and repair costs of a gasoline vehicle over 10 years can be less than that.

That's not a very good comparison, is it? After 10 years you'd have a nearly-new electric car (from a reliability/repair standpoint) but you'd have a gas car that was vastly more likely to break down and need costly repairs than when you first bought it.

So the electric car doesn't have an interior that will be worn out? Or worn suspension components like ball joints, tie rods, bushings, steering rack? Or air conditioning?

Electric cars also have highly sophisticated power control equipment. In 10 years of sysadmin work, the overwhelmingly most common failures I've seen have been power supplies, voltage regulators, and capacitors. Remains to be seen how well these components will hold up in real-world use in electric cars.

There was a US govt study cited by the Car Talk guys many years ago that found that the annual repair bill for most cars stabilized at an average of $600/yr, until the car died. (Not counting oil changes and regular maintenance.)

I wouldn't be at all surprised if batteries for a car like the Tesla got down to $6000. At that point, the value proposition is already much better than gasoline cars.

$600 a year or $6000 a year?

I think just brake pads, tires, and regular maintenance exceeds $600 a year if you amortize it. Every older car I've owned then started having problems. Even if it's just the A/C compressor or the muffler, you are always replacing something every few months.

$6000 a decade, so $600 a year. Interesting note: Engine maintenance costs are way higher on ICE cars than on electric cars.

If they can get battery costs down, which they're doing at a speed of 10% a year IIRC, then they can decrease that figure to about $200/year a decade from now.

Come to think of it, perhaps in a decade we'll finally have a reliable carbon price, rather than it being an unpenalized externality. That'd make ICE cars fairly uncompetitive quickly.

They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix.

If you ignore a lot of things. My current car, 2001 Volvo S60, which I still drive as the first owner with now 200.000 km. I had one issue with the drive train, the clutch broke. Everything else which got replaced you will find in the Tesla itself: Tires, Brakes, Air conditioning. Yes, I am still doing regular service to have it in this condition.

BTW: The Tesla has a gearbox. You know, gearboxes need oil as well, like every regular car/device with moving gear.

Electric engines won't die like that.

Yeah, right. Read on: http://www.dailytech.com/Following+Reports+of+Drive+Motor+Re...

They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix.

I think you're ignoring the big problem, the battery. When that goes, it is a big deal to replace, and mucho expensive.

A battery is on the order of the same cost as fixing an automatic transmission (which basically all US cars have--most of the US can't drive a stick anymore).

And, in terms of labor, a battery is WAY easier to replace than a transmission.

There's an even bigger bonus that in ten years the battery pack will probably be cheaper and have a better range. So while the replacement may be expensive the car will be dramatically better afterwards.

And you can recycle (sell) the battery pack after you replace it. What do you think is going into Tesla's Power Wall? Why do you think they're pushing leases so aggressively?

This, in my book, is an unknown. I though Tesla said batteries are getting better 10% a year / 18 months. And I'm sure replacing bad cells will be cheaper than the whole pack.

Someone smart will make a machine that will help me test good cells from bad. Someone else will be ripping good cells out of junked cars.

Someone else will be doing hire purchase on batteries - £200 a year, battery pack replaced every 2,000 charges? Something like that? Sounds fine to me.

You need to look after the maintenance on your cars better.

Your failure rate for service items like timing belts is statistically off the charts if that is true. You're either ignoring the needs or you are buying pieces of unmaintained junk.

I'm yet to experience a failure like this in all my vehicle history, and I've owned some beaters in my time.

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