Hacker News Reader

Comment by curiousjorge | Hacker News Reader

I think the article is overly optimistic and derives some sort of future prediction based on a simplified past performance of a totally different market. Tesla is a luxury , many of us can't afford it and if we could we would most likely opt for BMW or Benz.

The reason these other car makers aren't moving yet is they are learning from Tesla. You don't want to be a first mover in this industry, you want to move so slightly close to what everyone is doing but still differentiate yourself on brand. Cars today have vastly improved across the board regardless of make. To say gas stations will go out of business is ludicrous at best, Tesla will go out of business sooner as established car brands move in and hurt bottom line for Tesla. In the short while the euphoria towards Tesla will continue but it's headed for a not so pleasant ending. Great for humanity, bad for Musk.

View on HN

BMW has already launched their electric car range. They have moved - you can walk down and buy one today.

The i3 is even more innovative than the Tesla in a lot of ways - it intentionally does not look like a regular sedan, and has been optimised for city driving with upright position, small footprint, tight turning circle etc.

The i8 is a high performance hybrid with a ridiculously low fuel consumption pattern and the ability to drive as an all-electric.

BMW is not waiting for Tesla - it's out there competing in the marketplace where Tesla is not present - compact city cars and high end sportscars.

Tesla is unilkey to go out of business as it has built enormous technical knowledge which will be licensed to other manufacturers, either in IP agreements or by contracting out key personnell.

Companies like Lotus and Porsche make significant money consulting with other car makers just for things like ride and handling. The same thing will happen with electric drive and Tesla.

I think people in the 2nd hand car market (like me) will quickly switch to electric. They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix. Nearly all my cars die with head gasket issues, or oil leaks or timing belt issues. does quick count so that's 4 of my cars and 2 of my partners.

Electric engines won't die like that. And when they do, just grab a used one from a junked car and off you go. With 'in wheel' electric motors, this may be as simple as changing a wheel. This is huge for the 2nd hand market. Most people I know who aren't 'techies' are really looking forward to electric cars.

They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix.

I think you're ignoring the big problem, the battery. When that goes, it is a big deal to replace, and mucho expensive.

A battery is on the order of the same cost as fixing an automatic transmission (which basically all US cars have--most of the US can't drive a stick anymore).

And, in terms of labor, a battery is WAY easier to replace than a transmission.

There's an even bigger bonus that in ten years the battery pack will probably be cheaper and have a better range. So while the replacement may be expensive the car will be dramatically better afterwards.

And you can recycle (sell) the battery pack after you replace it. What do you think is going into Tesla's Power Wall? Why do you think they're pushing leases so aggressively?

This, in my book, is an unknown. I though Tesla said batteries are getting better 10% a year / 18 months. And I'm sure replacing bad cells will be cheaper than the whole pack.

Someone smart will make a machine that will help me test good cells from bad. Someone else will be ripping good cells out of junked cars.

Someone else will be doing hire purchase on batteries - £200 a year, battery pack replaced every 2,000 charges? Something like that? Sounds fine to me.

True, but there's at least one really expensive component of electric cars that needs replacement every 8 to 10 years: the battery. I think the current price is about $10000 for the battery if you order from Tesla in advance.

Maintenance and repair costs of a gasoline vehicle over 10 years can be less than that.

That's not a very good comparison, is it? After 10 years you'd have a nearly-new electric car (from a reliability/repair standpoint) but you'd have a gas car that was vastly more likely to break down and need costly repairs than when you first bought it.

So the electric car doesn't have an interior that will be worn out? Or worn suspension components like ball joints, tie rods, bushings, steering rack? Or air conditioning?

Electric cars also have highly sophisticated power control equipment. In 10 years of sysadmin work, the overwhelmingly most common failures I've seen have been power supplies, voltage regulators, and capacitors. Remains to be seen how well these components will hold up in real-world use in electric cars.

There was a US govt study cited by the Car Talk guys many years ago that found that the annual repair bill for most cars stabilized at an average of $600/yr, until the car died. (Not counting oil changes and regular maintenance.)

I wouldn't be at all surprised if batteries for a car like the Tesla got down to $6000. At that point, the value proposition is already much better than gasoline cars.

$600 a year or $6000 a year?

I think just brake pads, tires, and regular maintenance exceeds $600 a year if you amortize it. Every older car I've owned then started having problems. Even if it's just the A/C compressor or the muffler, you are always replacing something every few months.

$6000 a decade, so $600 a year. Interesting note: Engine maintenance costs are way higher on ICE cars than on electric cars.

If they can get battery costs down, which they're doing at a speed of 10% a year IIRC, then they can decrease that figure to about $200/year a decade from now.

Come to think of it, perhaps in a decade we'll finally have a reliable carbon price, rather than it being an unpenalized externality. That'd make ICE cars fairly uncompetitive quickly.

They are simpler to fix and cheaper to fix.

If you ignore a lot of things. My current car, 2001 Volvo S60, which I still drive as the first owner with now 200.000 km. I had one issue with the drive train, the clutch broke. Everything else which got replaced you will find in the Tesla itself: Tires, Brakes, Air conditioning. Yes, I am still doing regular service to have it in this condition.

BTW: The Tesla has a gearbox. You know, gearboxes need oil as well, like every regular car/device with moving gear.

Electric engines won't die like that.

Yeah, right. Read on: http://www.dailytech.com/Following+Reports+of+Drive+Motor+Re...

You need to look after the maintenance on your cars better.

Your failure rate for service items like timing belts is statistically off the charts if that is true. You're either ignoring the needs or you are buying pieces of unmaintained junk.

I'm yet to experience a failure like this in all my vehicle history, and I've owned some beaters in my time.

> To say gas stations will go out of business is ludicrous at best, Tesla will go out of business sooner as established car brands move in and hurt bottom line for Tesla.

I don't get that dichotomy. If established car brands move into electric, wouldn't that kill both Tesla and gas stations? Why would gas stations survive?

Gas stations have one shot at survival over the next 30 years: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs).

Part of the reason traditional manufacturers have been reluctant to pursue BEVs (battery-electric vehicles) is that many were betting on liquefied hydrogen as an energy delivery mechanism for FCVs. I presume this was from pressure from current energy companies.

Hydrogen benefits current energy interests because customers would fill up their cars in a way roughly analogous to today's gas stations. Even though the "fuel" product and drivetrain are different, gas stations can adapt for hydrogen.

That is just way too complicated to work out, though, and I think traditional automakers are at the point where they are giving up. The hydrogen infrastructure is hugely expensive and the resulting automotive products are not that much more convenient than BEVs.

Tesla's Gigafactory, enabling products like their PowerWall, is the most straightforward way for us as a society to use more renewables. The problem with wind and solar has always been spotty, inconsistent power generation, and with enough battery capacity, that is no longer an issue. That is a bad sign for gas stations, but an opportunity to pivot for traditional energy companies.

Gas stations have a lot more shots at survival than just FCVs. In 30 years gas stations will likely deliver a wide range of different vehicle energy sources: fossil gasoline, Fischer–Tropsch process gasoline, fossil diesel, biodiesel, CNG, and hydrogen. The only business they will lose are people who can charge or refuel electric or CNG powered vehicles at home. Those will still be a minority in 30 years due to slow turnover of the vehicle fleet and limited availability of home charging stations.

Right now we don't know if electric cars that Tesla has will be the formula for everybody else or that it will be the standard (optimists will claim so). There are so many problems we are ignoring and the biggest which ansible brought up is the battery & cost. Could you charge your battery faster you can fill up your tank with fuel? Yes I'm sure it's improving every year but there's going to be a lot of time that will be required. There are so many other economic unknowns during this time. What if gas became so abundant and cheap due to continued oversupply from some determined group of oil producing countries hell bent on making sure there's a market for their black gold? What if we improved and lowered the cost of extracting oil deep deep below the earth and run into an ocean size worth of supply? What if car technology improves suddenly that burning fuel becomes extremely efficient that batteries can't match? What if somebody comes up with a new type of fuel concoction that you could put into any old used car and get crazy mileage?

If we do arrive at a point where everybody is producing electric cars, wouldn't there still be an interest in buying out existing gas stations and turn them into super charging stations where you can just drive your car through a tunnel and come out the other end with batteries fully charged? Or would battery become so crazy good that you charge it overnight and it lasts for deacades (you gonna put a mini nuclear reactor in your car?)? Maybe it will be possible to just subscribe to some power station in the orbit that charges your battery constantly wirelessly. I'd love to see that happen but the time it will take to get all of these things right is quite long and a lot of things can change during that time.

I hope you are right, I really look forward to that day when we can say the hell with relying on oppressing people (creating some very angry people that are willing to blow themselves up to make a point) in countries where their leaders get all of our dollars in exchange for that sweet sweet black gold.

> Tesla is a luxury , many of us can't afford it and if we could we would most likely opt for BMW or Benz.

You say that as if you're not already aware there will be a Tesla car for $35,000 pre-subsidies in 2017, and a $30,000 Chevy Bolt in 2016, both with 200 mile ranges. That's about the average car price in the US ($33,000). Volkswagen has recently announced a 200-mile EV too, but might be for 2018+.

Considering the cars selling for about as much or close to that started with a 70-mile battery ~5 years ago, then EVs have improved their ranges by 3x in about 5 years. Let's call it 2x if we also account for a ~$10,000 price difference.

> In the short while the euphoria towards Tesla will continue but it's headed for a not so pleasant ending. Great for humanity, bad for Musk.

And I can't help but wonder if Musk is okay with that, or even planned it that way from the start?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com