What are your thoughts on the massive valuations of companies that might struggle to manage a profit 3-4 years down the road?
All the VC money that is driving huge growing in SV may disappear for a while. A lot of the money won't come back. This means unemployed people, which means pay falls for everyone.
It means less small VC fueled companies buying services that more established companies sell.
So yea it might not crash the S&P500 like 2000 did, but it would still have a huge impact within tech companies.
A flip side of this is that one of the many things that contributed to the housing bubble was the requirement that many pensions have to invest in bonds of a given rating. This helped fuel the market for rubber stamped mortgage derivatives.