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> - I see that the defense can now score two points by intercepting a two-point play and returning it. Doesn't this lower the utility of the two-point play as used in the article? Or have I misunderstood?

It's such an unlikely event that it shouldn't enter into anyone's calculation except in extreme cirumstances (e.g., you only need 1 point for certain victory, so why risk it). I doubt it will happen once per season.

> It isn't hard to imagine that teams will get better at executing two-point plays if they attempt more.

Teams will get better at defending it too. Teams might acquire personnel especially for the play, both on offense and defense.

> am I right in thinking that they are typically attempted by a team in a desperate position at the moment?

Often but not always desparate. Generally teams defaulted to extra points (1 point) and only used 2-point conversions when there was some certainty it would help. For example, if you are ahead by 1 point and there is time only for one more drive (offensive possession) by the other team, an extra point, which would increase your 1 point lead to 2 points, won't help you because the other team can score either 0 or >=3 points (i.e., scoring 1 or 2 points is impossible, except in a very unlikely event). You might as well go for 2 and earn a tie in case the opponent scores 3 (a field goal).

Also, a little vocabularly help so you look smart around the water cooler:

> one-point field goal

"extra point"

> match

"game"

As for your second point, a 2 point conversion is basically just like any goal line play which they practice many times and encounter in games often. So I would say they have maximized their ability for this play and it wouldn't change if they attempted it more.

I agree here, from my observations teams struggle far more from super short yardage (<3 yards) worse than they struggle from ~10 yards.

The lack of space before the goal line limits the routes you can run. The defense clogging the middle becomes easier because there is no deep threat to allocate safeties and linebackers to.

I think the more 2 point plays that are run, defenses are going to get better at stopping them. I also wonder what percentage of successful 2 point plays were fake kicks, where special teams defense was out there. Rather than actual defensive starters. I wager that if offenses have to face real defenses in this situation they will perform worse.

> I also wonder what percentage of successful 2 point plays were fake kicks, where special teams defense was out there. Rather than actual defensive starters. I wager that if offenses have to face real defenses in this situation they will perform worse.

Fair point, but I don't think I've ever seen any team at any level of play attempt a true fake FG on an extra point. There is, however, a related concept called a "Swinging Gate"[0] that's relatively prevalent at the high school level, rare at the college level, and almost completely unused in the NFL. Interestingly, this rule change completely eliminates the possibility since teams won't be able to reset into a traditional field goal formation at the 2 yard-line.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swinging_gate_%28American_foot...

> I see that the defense can now score two points by intercepting a two-point play and returning it. Doesn't this lower the utility of the two-point play as used in the article? Or have I misunderstood?

Probability of a 100-yard interception return is very low.

> Teams will get better at defending it too. Teams might acquire personnel especially for the play, both on offense and defense.

There really isn't a functional difference between a stopping a 2pt conversion and stopping a red zone drive from the 2 yard line. Defenses already know how to do this. It's a matter of play calling, reading, execution, and the raw will of each team at this point.

> Am I right in thinking that they are typically attempted by a team in a desperate position at the moment?

No, not at all. You can reach certain score combinations that favor a 2pt conversion. Say the score is 13-14, and the team with 14 just scored a touchdown. Now it is 13-20. That team might elect to attempt a 2pt conversion to raise their score to 13-22, which would require the other team to score TWICE in to get ahead or tie the game. If they don't make the 2pt, they're still up by a touchdown.

90+ yard plays are extraordinary, so the defensive score will not be a large factor.

The main thing is that they are tweaking the 1 point kicks to be slightly less certain, if there is an imbalance I think they will quickly adjust things again.

90+ yard plays are indeed extraordinary. There were 4 90+ yard plays on offense last season and one 90+ yard return of a turnover.

Relatively speaking, your odds of scoring after catching a ball inside your own 10 yard line are much higher if the ball was thrown by your opponent.

The defense can recover a blocked Point after and return it for two as well. its been like that in the college game for as long as I can remember.