If we accept that, as a member of the super-wealthy post-USSR kleptocracy engaged in an endless Presidency, Putin is naturally most concerned about maintaining domestic power, then the thesis is: massive uprisings in their largest ex-Soviet neighbor, against a Russian-allied President, where the public floods into the President's palace and becomes even more enraged at evidence of their wealth (a golden loaf of bread; a pirate-ship restaurant), make it impossible domestically that Putin not respond with a show of force.
As the article says, he and his chums have palaces too.