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Comment by nlake44 | Hacker News Reader

Services like Airbnb and Uber will be become commodities. There will be some service like Kayak or Expedia to find you the lowest fare in the future. These companies will have to offer an API or be undercut by competitive services. Uber and these other services better grab as much money as they can right now.

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I agree with you. I suspect that this "sharing" economy idea that they're based around is going to evaporate; I think people will start to realize that Uber/Airbnb are taking a very healthy cut of the profits and carefully sticking their not-employees with all of the costs associated with running a business, costs that maybe aren't immediately apparent (costs of depreciation on a car, costs of insurance for these types of businesses, costs of paying taxes as an independent contractor). It's very lucrative for Airbnb and Uber because they can (try to) distance themselves from any rule breaking because it's not THEM breaking the rules, it's the independent contractors.

But I think fairly soon it'll start to evaporate a bit. Sure they might exist, but I'm very skeptical of both companies' $10B+ evaluations, and I think they'll end up becoming something like you mentioned.

The value is in the longevity and diversity of the ratings. You might have top-notch properties at bargain-bin prices for rent, but if it's all "0 reviews, 0 bookings", it's an uphill battle to earn customer trust.

Good example is Yelp - one can probably buy a ready-to-go software package off a random "scripts for sale" site, but quality reviewer acquisition and user acquisition through trust might get expensive.

http://thenewinquiry.com/essays/in-praise-of-fake-reviews/

http://tomslee.net/2013/09/some-obvious-things-about-interne...

Apple's quality at this point of time is SO overrated. Yeah, Apple products out of the factory gates are relatively quality products compared to the competition but they tend to break down over time real quick and show their true colors and Apple's modus operandi of charging people more and more over the lifetime of the devices (recurring income) in replacements and repairs like in the automotive industry.

> Uber and these other services better grab as much money as they can right now.

Actually, aren't they running at a loss right now in order to obtain marketshare? And doesn't this suggest that the people financing this loss disagree with you, and believe lock-in will happen?

Any predominantly Silicon-based (digital) business tends to commoditize over time and Uber or any other service is no exception.

Yes. Nothing last forever.

How do you explain Apple?

The existence of Apple doesn't preclude the ongoing commoditization of the PC, smartphone, and tablet markets. Apple has already stopped producing servers, which are effective commodity items now.

Contrary to popular belief and urban myths, the market in which Apple operates is ripe for commoditization and iPod and most recently iPad sales are the best proofs now for my assertion.

Forward looking, I'd be really very surprised to see Apple staying relevant in tech in the next decade as the smartphone revolution fades away and the novelty factor they enjoy or make up as well as market dominance will follow suit.

The iPod and iPad markets have not commoditized.

Yes, it's a work in progress

No it isn't. Neither market has been overtaken by commodity products at all. Your argument about Apple products being commoditized is totally without merit. The Mac and iPhone continue to gain share in markets that have commodity alternatives. The iPad sales have slowed but they haven't slowed as much as the commodity alternatives. iPod sales have slowed not because people are buying commodity MP3 players instead, but because people are no longer buying standalone MP3 players.

The tablet market and more importantly its poster boy the iPad (the notebook killer lol) have been swallowed by two beasts simultaneously, from the bottom up, larger size smartphones, and from the top down, hybrid notebooks like the Surface/Yoga that integrated the touch based interface and generally speaking more capable devices not toys.

The MP3 player market and iPods in particular have been swallowed and cannibalized to Apple's discontent by their smartphones and their peers again.

So, it doesn't look rosy for Apple as it's becoming more and more a one trick pony with one single dominant product while the rest are suffering or in steadfast decline and when you take into account that the saturation point for smartphones is approaching, you'll realize that they will need to bring up REALLY something new or face the fate every tech company finds itself sailing the ship through the stagnation storm just to get alive.

I agree that larger smartphones attract buyers who otherwise might have bought a tablet, but there is zero evidence that hybrid notebooks have affected the iPad.

There isn't even evidence that the overall trend foe the iPad is lower growth - just that the upgrade cycle is slower.

As for a 'one-trick pony', that statement is certainly false, as Apple has multiple growing product lines.

Also, saturation for smartphones may be approaching in a few markets, but saturation for the iPhone is much much further off, so your prophecy of decline is empty as yet.

Android tablets exceed iPads in market share. 61.9% in 2013 according to a quick google search.

That's misleading because it includes a large number of android based video players in Asia, which are not competitors to the iPad as general purpose tablets.

Yeah, man, that "Asia" place, it like, doesn't count. And who's heard of this "Europe", anyway? It sounds made up. I guess the reality distortion field doesn't have the range to reach there.

It has nothing to do with 'Asia' or 'Europe'. It has to do with saying a 7" android based video player is a competitor to the iPad.

Just seemed to me like you're going around dismissing continents, redefining the product category when faced with opposing evidence. Perhaps in 2010 iPad was the only game in town but Android tablets have shot up since then. I've seen it with my own eyes and ears, but yes, when I googled for data I saw that I am not wrong.

Sorry, the data you quoted is absolutely wrong. It doesn't distinguish between low cost android video players and iPads. If you want to make a point about android being used widely, that's fine, but if you want to make a point about iPads being affected by commoditization, the data doesn't support that.

More like you don't like some of the brands and models because they come from a continent you don't like, and you are using this to dismiss the whole argument.

Nope. Stop trying to impute racism. The facts are that Android video players are hugely popular in Asia, but these aren't iPad competitors.

The exception that proves the rule.

Uber ditched the premium ("Apple") role with Uber-X

Apple surf on the edge. They've managed to maintain a margin by differentiating on quality, maintaining incompatibility at the hardware level, offering an integrated user experience and a vertically integrated cutting-edge manufacturing process.

This doesn't work in all markets - see Apple servers. Some of their products (desktops, Apple TV) are probably on the wane.

They are the only serious company in the home computing space that realised design and ergonomics was more important than processor frequency. Which is interesting given there are many industries, like audio equipment, where there have been many design-led companies, but it seems to be a rarity in computing.

> These companies will have to offer an API

If they don't, they'll be scraped.

I'm pretty sure Whittl does just that.

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