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Comment by coldtea | Hacker News Reader

Reading about the issue and experience and historical knowledge of European politics, US interventions and the like. It's the same kind of shit that has been played time and again, (especially in the sixties and seventies).

I, like I. F. Stone, also don't start from a middle-class-apolitical assumption that the police are always good guys and governments don't lie and frame people, especially when it comes to activists.

Could I be wrong? Sure, but I don't think so.

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The flip side is that some of us don't start from the hero-worshipping-conspiracy-theorist approach that public figures with right on political stances never have a dark side, and are familiar enough with the concept of Ockham's razor to understand that governments that want to lie and frame people tend not to do so in the most vague and convoluted manner possible[1]. I'd say that Assange - innocent or otherwise - is considerably more likely to have had a dispute over sexual relations with two former followers than be the victim of the world's most unnecessarily complex fit-up job.

[1]the only possible upside from a conspirator's point of view of having the allegation be so borderline the Swedish authorities showed reluctance to move forward with prosecution is that it seems to have provoked some of Assange's more outspoken supporters into endorsing embarrassingly misogynist sentiments.

It seems clear to me that he almost certainly acted like a total asshole in this case, whether or not he's guilty of a crime.

But that does not mean that I can't at the same time think the prosecution is acting in bizarre manners in this case and that something does not add up, though I don't think it's necessarily down to US involvement.

My guess is that yes, there was a dispute, or at least the women had regrets, and that Ny saw an opportunity to further her own political agenda and grabbed it. No prior conspiracy required - just two badly treated women coupled with a prosecutor who saw an opportunity to score some political points.

At the same time I think Assange genuinely fears that there is US involvement, and that this fear has in part been fuelled by the way Ny has acted in this case.

Of course this is total speculation.

And of course, the lack of a conspiracy does not rule out that US authorities might take advantage if they get the opportunity, but in the meantime having Assange holed up in his embassy would seem like it'd also likely suit them just fine. They know where he is, and his reputation has taken a serious hit.

>and are familiar enough with the concept of Ockham's razor to understand that governments that want to lie and frame people tend not to do so in the most vague and convoluted manner possible

You'd be surprised. In Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America (that I know of) there are tons of examples (that were later exposed in court and press) of governments doing it (framing people or lying) in exactly a vague and convoluted manner, and with extreme crudeness and arrogance.

Sweden gave a lot of US soldiers that refused to go to war asylum during the Vietnam war. So much for parallels in between now and the sixties/seventies...

I did not see him drawing a parallel specifically to Sweden in the 60's and 70's, but rather to interventions in Europe in general during that period.

In the sixties/seventies Sweden had a far more radical/left wing government most of the period than it has ever had since. First under Tage Erlander (social democrat; "founder" of large parts of the Swedish welfare system) and his successor, Olof Palme, which was even more left wing.

Olof Palme's harsh criticism of the Vietnam war was indeed a watershed moment in making criticism of the US involvement in Vietnam politically acceptable in Europe and in particular in the Scandinavian countries.

But Sweden has never been as left wing again as it was up until Palme was assassinated.

No prof then?

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