I hear a great number of predictions regarding China - especially on discussion forums. It's also interesting to hear your analysis of debt accumulation. When the US did much the same what I kept hearing from finance folks was that foreign capital works quite differently than personal savings and that the US debt burden was (and is) not really so big a deal. I have heard variations of your argument for some years and so far none of them have been right - I am struggling to figure out how your argument now differs from their arguments then.

Consistently, on the other hand, what I hear from Washington strategists is that they can not make policy decisions based on the hope that China's economy with deflate or implode (not to mention that this would offer its own kind of disaster to the West - look at what Thailand unpegging the dollar did in '97). Their assessment is quite divergent from yours. Although it shares so many features with the many before you who have wrongly predicted an implosion it would be interesting if you were right. To reiterate my earlier point Washington behaves off its beliefs and it believes that growth in that hemisphere, plus growth in China, will make the Asian theater the dominant one for the next half century.

Luckily for the world all predictions made in this thread are falsifiable - we need only watch to see what happens over the next couple of decades to find out. :)