Probably not. They were a go up until just three minutes before launch. I doubt any extant or near-future forecasting system is able to tell you that a specific storm cell will be in a specific spot at an exact minute all that far in advance.
Probably not. They were a go up until just three minutes before launch. I doubt any extant or near-future forecasting system is able to tell you that a specific storm cell will be in a specific spot at an exact minute all that far in advance.
Well, this is exactly my plan, and I'm going to do it ASAP. Prototype should be done by summer. There are millions of little weather stations all over Florida that nobody is using (smartphones). By connecting those stations together and pulling the live sensor data into forecasts, I do in fact believe that these small thunderstorm cells should be very well-forecasted if we take in this dense dataset.
This forecast system doesn't exist yet, you're right. But it should exist in the next couple months/years, and when it does, it should be able to provide this kind of forecast.
BUT only if that is worth money to a group like SpaceX - is it? That's really my question. I know I can build the technology, but will anyone like SpaceX buy, and at what price?
Accurate forecasts are no doubt extremely valuable in many cases, but for this specific case I don't see it changing much.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime shows lightning in realtime as they're detected by stations across the planet. If you turn on the "stations" display, you can see detectors in Utah spotting lightning in the Gulf of Mexico.
OTOH, why not just ping @elonmusk on twitter?
I've sent @elonmusk a few messages over the years but no replies so far. I am @vallesmarineris, so I think one day he'll notice that I already live on Mars and we'll chat.
It always reminds me about this interchange: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8292091
Probably easier to google up someone on the launch team and ask them.