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Comment by icebraining | Hacker News Reader

Have you considered the apparent arrogance might be a strategy?

It's a really bad strategy in that it doesn't prepare the Greek people for anything bad happening. The short term consequences of Greece crashing out of the Euro is going to be very painful for Greece.

> The short term consequences of Greece crashing out of the Euro is going to be very painful for Greece.

For Greece? Greece will recover, and it's hard to do worse than it is currently doing. And as others say, a floating currency will help correct the imbalance of an exporter like Germany dominating the EU.

And bizarrely, I suspect investment will be quick to return if Greece is seen as being out from under its cloud. Investors seem to care less about previous behavior than about future prospects.

> It's a really bad strategy in that it doesn't prepare the Greek people for anything bad happening.

No... Germany stands to lose the most, because the likely eventual outcome is the collapse of the entire monetary union, and the wide markets that Germany has enjoyed.

Oh it will be a problem for other countries. But there are short term consequences to a Grexit for Greece, the long term consequences may be good but immediately you'll be looking at; capital controls so people can't move their money around, Euros being forcibly converted to drachma, Greek banks going bust (combined with capital controls that isn't fun), a temporary inflation spike.

So short term Greece's social problems will be exacerbated - and that is the problem, arrogance suggests that there won't be a problem. The government may be looked back on a different light in 5-10 years time, but when there is renewed rioting in the streets in a month that isn't so good.

5-10 years? Not if you take a look at Argentina.

Germany successfully refinanced several German banks during the crisis and the current debt of Greece will not be payed fully back before 50 years. German EU contribution will be cut back. The impact to Germany will be minimal.

For Greece? Take a look at Argentina.

You may benefit from reading an expert on debt restructuring: http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/when-do-we-decide-that-europ...

Of course it is a strategy, a populist one.

"Populist" has become a bit of a dirty phrase. Care to distinguish it from "democratic"?

Democracy is a system of government, populism is a strategy for maximizing popularity by appealing to emotions with rhetoric and unrealistic proposals, and pitting a group of people against another group. Since I can see where you are going with this, yes, the notion of populism does require the politically incorrect idea that not everyone is perfectly rational, intelligent and well informed. One can be in favour of democracy without necessarily agreeing with the voting decisions of general public, and without agreeing with political strategies that exploit this.

(just like one can be in favour of the freedom of speech to say X without agreeing with X)

Yes

From Wikipedia

"Populism is a political doctrine that appeals to the interests and conceptions (such as hopes and fears) of the general people, especially contrasting those interests with the interests of the elite."

Democracy: Cheap Education Populism: Easy-to-get student loans

Democracy: Low taxes on essential products Populism: High taxes on essential products, then "stamps", "aids", or low taxes/subsidies on a very specific range of said essential product

Also similar to the Roman Strategy of Bread and Circuses

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