Comment by drapper | Hacker News Reader

Comment by drapper | Hacker News Reader

I'm full of ambivalent feelings towards Syriza, on one hand they are (were) a nice breath of fresh air, a promise of some positive change, on the other: they turned out to be kinda arrogant, kinda short-sighted and pretty bad at diplomacy. Politics isn't about being right 100% of time (not that they were), it's about being effective, and in that they are lacking badly. Seems they entered this whole thing with this cocky approach of "now we'll show 'em, them dumb fucks!". They've got their wrists slapped for that and now complain again on how bad EU is treating them. Hard to get sympathy for that.

Good article on this from Foreign Affairs: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143294/david-gordon-a...

Some quotes:

"Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek Finance Minister, for one, singled out Italy for having debt that was “unsustainable,” which served only to infuriate Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan"

"Within a day of winning the Greek election, he (Tsipras) called the Russian ambassador and protested the EU’s statement condemning Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists for an attack on civilians in a Mariupol market"

"But even then, Greece could have survived its mistakes were it not for one other fatal decision: to move forward with its electoral platform before renegotiating its debt, increasing government spending without the requisite funds and reversing or stalling key reforms (...) All these factors positioned Greece to buckle in its negotiations. It was simply hemorrhaging far too much money far too fast to hold its position."

> But even then, Greece could have survived its mistakes were it not for one other fatal decision: to move forward with its electoral platform before renegotiating its debt, increasing government spending without the requisite funds and reversing or stalling key reforms

This only seems like a bad thing because it is viewed in terms of money and debts, rather than human cost. The reality is that Syriza must do some spending if only to hold Greece over and stem the rise of the far-right. Greece has had 7 years of "reforms". They need to also spend some money sometimes.

First of all Greek people need to pay their taxes.

I am greek. In the real estate business. I have no debt or loans, always living well within my means. For last year, I payed 90% of my true income in taxes. I am, basically, being murdered. 'Nough said.

When you hear about, or say, "greeks don't pay their taxes", you should also get informed about how much that taxation really is. That's extremely difficult, even for someone living here. To give the slightest of many examples, you may read that income from real estate is taxed with 33%. That's true, but it glosses over ~30 more "small" taxes on real estate, and many other general laws that affect it. ..You read "I don't pay my taxes of 33%", my what-really-happened, extremely simple, just did a division, calculation, is 90%. ..Have a good day. Cause I'm having bad years.

Have you considered the apparent arrogance might be a strategy?

It's a really bad strategy in that it doesn't prepare the Greek people for anything bad happening. The short term consequences of Greece crashing out of the Euro is going to be very painful for Greece.

> The short term consequences of Greece crashing out of the Euro is going to be very painful for Greece.

For Greece? Greece will recover, and it's hard to do worse than it is currently doing. And as others say, a floating currency will help correct the imbalance of an exporter like Germany dominating the EU.

And bizarrely, I suspect investment will be quick to return if Greece is seen as being out from under its cloud. Investors seem to care less about previous behavior than about future prospects.

> It's a really bad strategy in that it doesn't prepare the Greek people for anything bad happening.

No... Germany stands to lose the most, because the likely eventual outcome is the collapse of the entire monetary union, and the wide markets that Germany has enjoyed.

Oh it will be a problem for other countries. But there are short term consequences to a Grexit for Greece, the long term consequences may be good but immediately you'll be looking at; capital controls so people can't move their money around, Euros being forcibly converted to drachma, Greek banks going bust (combined with capital controls that isn't fun), a temporary inflation spike.

So short term Greece's social problems will be exacerbated - and that is the problem, arrogance suggests that there won't be a problem. The government may be looked back on a different light in 5-10 years time, but when there is renewed rioting in the streets in a month that isn't so good.

5-10 years? Not if you take a look at Argentina.

Germany successfully refinanced several German banks during the crisis and the current debt of Greece will not be payed fully back before 50 years. German EU contribution will be cut back. The impact to Germany will be minimal.

For Greece? Take a look at Argentina.

You may benefit from reading an expert on debt restructuring: http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/when-do-we-decide-that-europ...

Of course it is a strategy, a populist one.

"Populist" has become a bit of a dirty phrase. Care to distinguish it from "democratic"?

Democracy is a system of government, populism is a strategy for maximizing popularity by appealing to emotions with rhetoric and unrealistic proposals, and pitting a group of people against another group. Since I can see where you are going with this, yes, the notion of populism does require the politically incorrect idea that not everyone is perfectly rational, intelligent and well informed. One can be in favour of democracy without necessarily agreeing with the voting decisions of general public, and without agreeing with political strategies that exploit this.

(just like one can be in favour of the freedom of speech to say X without agreeing with X)

Yes

From Wikipedia

"Populism is a political doctrine that appeals to the interests and conceptions (such as hopes and fears) of the general people, especially contrasting those interests with the interests of the elite."

Democracy: Cheap Education Populism: Easy-to-get student loans

Democracy: Low taxes on essential products Populism: High taxes on essential products, then "stamps", "aids", or low taxes/subsidies on a very specific range of said essential product

Also similar to the Roman Strategy of Bread and Circuses

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