2) The premise of the 10xers not being around in 50-100 years could be correct. It depends on the amount of money invested in anti-ageing technology.
Coming down on one side or another, in a binary fashion: I think your comment is false.
> Until better than marginal gains are realized, I would say it's premature to hold massive lifespan lengthening out as a realistic possibility since we don't know what road blocks lie ahead. Sure, it's possible in the 'anything is possible' sense, but, IMO, not as a practical consideration.
People are working on the problem of radical live extension today. So even if you consider it impractical, that's certainly not a view held by everyone.
Plus, a gradual improvement is all that's needed. As long as someone can live long enough to reach longevity escape velocity[1], that's the problem solved!
[0] http://www.kurzweilai.net/fullerene-c60-administration-doubl...