How can you verify your assumptions about whether or not a commenter owns real estate?
For example, do I own real estate in San Francisco? I think your chances of getting that right are pretty close to 50%.
For example, do I own real estate in San Francisco? I think your chances of getting that right are pretty close to 50%.
I really like Warren Buffet's perspective, the rules one believes are right, should be created without you knowing what your circumstance will be. That is, if you are trying to determine what is right, or not, about rent controls, you should create without knowing whether you will be renter, or an owner.
I've never met a real estate owner in San Francisco who was rabidly opposed to uncontrolled rent markets - so, with 99% certainly (I'm sure there are some edge cases), anybody who is highly opposed to uncontrolled rent markets is, with a high level of certainty, not a real estate owner in San Francisco.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veil_of_ignorance
Most famously described by:
But the rest of your argument doesn't make sense. You've never met an SF real estate owner with a certain opinion, so you know something about most of them? There are at least 10,000 SF real estate owners. Have you talked to more than 0.1% of them? And even if you had, how would that help with your original claim that you can identify whether commenters in this thread were SF real estate owners or not?
Someone living in a rent-controlled apartment will be a strong believer in rent control. Someone owning real estate will be opposed to rent control. What I find fascinating is that the same person with the same knowledge, background, and education might hold two diametrically opposite positions.
But in the non-meta discussion, all I'm saying is that you don't know which commenters are in which situation, and especially not with 95% certainty, like you claimed. Some of the commenters might oppose rent control, even though they benefit from it. Other commenters might strongly support rent control in San Francisco, even though they live in Wyoming. We just don't know.
I guess my only hope is that when people voice a very strong opinion on this topic (or, for that matter, any topic) - that they might consider whether they are holding that position with a "veil of ignorance", or whether they are just projecting from their own situation.