Comment by jasode | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jasode | Hacker News Reader

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I don't agree with the methodology for calculating AWS -vs- Moore's Law as mentioned in blog articles such as this one.[1]

A more accurate cost model would require multiple components in addition to number of transistors that amazon buys.

For example, to fully build an AWS service:

++You need a plot of land for the data center. Do real estate prices follow Moore's Law?

++Concrete and steel to erect the data center building. Do raw building materials follow Moore's Law?

++Energy costs. Does the price of terawatts follow Moore's Law?

++Bandwidth costs. Does the price of network transfers from Tier 1 backbones follow Moore's Law?

++Staffing costs. Do the programmers, system admins, and other techies' salaries paid by amazon follow Moore's Law?

++etc, etc.

If transistor count was the overwhelming cost item for supplying an "AWS" offering, we could then ignore all other component costs as an insignificant rounding error. Is this the case?

[1]https://gigaom.com/2014/04/19/moores-law-gives-way-to-bezoss...

@jasode, actually, that is the exact point of the article. Non-Moore's-Law-subject costs are, at a bare minimum, 60% of the fully-loaded costs, probably more. All of that means that AWS costs should drop much slower than Moore's Law, about 60% slower. And yet, they keep dropping at a fast clip. Most of that would be due to Amazon's innovation and scale on everything beyond Moore's-Law-subject components.

I think we are agreeing.

"Do real estate prices follow Moore's Law?"

It doesn't have to. If prices are constant and computers halve in size/power use every x months, real estate prices per bogomips halve every x months, too.

"Do the programmers, system admins, and other techies' salaries paid by amazon follow Moore's Law?"

Again, they don't have to. It also is possible to make efficiency gains. Here, I would guess Amazon has outsprinted Moore's law.

Similarly, I would guess network costs and speed have gone down faster than Moore's law.

Of the things you mention, my _guess_ would be that only energy prices are a significant factor stopping AWS pricing from following Moore's law.

But yes, it is more complicated than "pricing should follow Moore's law"

>Of the things you mention, my _guess_ would be that only energy prices are a significant factor stopping AWS pricing from following Moore's law.

Ah, but this is subject to Moore's Law too: As transistor density increases, performance per watt goes up (well, this requires Dennard Scaling also). Hence, as Moore's Law advances, the power costs go down (at constant performance).

Your guess about network costs are correct, their prices have a half-life of 9 months: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#Other_formulatio...

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