...that doesn't quite have the same ring, does it? There is a lot of survivorship bias at play here. Thousands of individuals had convictions that their instincts were right as as well - but it turned out poorly for them. Luck and timing plays a big part in success, but more often than not, hn ignores this.
The broader point is Peter Thiel's --> You are not a lottery ticket.
The best example might be Jeff Bezos and his business plan. Elon Musk has been consistent for ~ 20 yrs about the areas he set out to work on since college and he's followed that through. It's not dumb luck. It's skill + luck. The skill part of the equation is oft dumbed down in favor of the randomized success algorithm. People who are able to repeat their successes multiple times e.g. Joel Spolsky, Elon Musk, David Duffield, Rich Barton are especially skilled and it would be disingenuous to attribute their successes to some luck/timing that they were not ultimately mostly responsible for creating or noticing.