Hacker News Reader

Comment by levlandau | Hacker News Reader

While he didn't know Microsoft would pioneer it, Bill Gates says he knew that there'd be a software industry.

While he didn't know Facebook would pioneer it, Mark Zuckerberg says he knew that all software would be social.

While he didn't know Google would pioneer it, Larry Page said he knew that the fast growing web would eventually need a good way to search.

While he didn't know Viaweb would pioneer it, Paul Graham said he knew that ecommerce sites would eventually be created by software.

And so on....

I respect the fuzziness and path dependence of startup growth but boy do I respect people who can see the future now, make it happen and end up being correct. Even more props to people who make it happen multiple times [e.g. Joel Spolsky, Elon Musk]

View on HN

While he didn't know WebVan would pioneer it, Loius Borders says he know ecommerce would rule the world.

...that doesn't quite have the same ring, does it? There is a lot of survivorship bias at play here. Thousands of individuals had convictions that their instincts were right as as well - but it turned out poorly for them. Luck and timing plays a big part in success, but more often than not, hn ignores this.

How does this change the point that there are entrepreneurs who have instincts about the market AND timing that turn out to be right?

The broader point is Peter Thiel's --> You are not a lottery ticket.

The best example might be Jeff Bezos and his business plan. Elon Musk has been consistent for ~ 20 yrs about the areas he set out to work on since college and he's followed that through. It's not dumb luck. It's skill + luck. The skill part of the equation is oft dumbed down in favor of the randomized success algorithm. People who are able to repeat their successes multiple times e.g. Joel Spolsky, Elon Musk, David Duffield, Rich Barton are especially skilled and it would be disingenuous to attribute their successes to some luck/timing that they were not ultimately mostly responsible for creating or noticing.

To counter your example: on their second, third, fourth companies repeatedly successful entrepreneurs have all the benefits from the first success. As a result, they are far less reliant on luck in relation to funding, talent, getting the word out, etc. For your example to fully prove your point, you would need to find entrepreneurs who have repeatedly changed their name and identity between each of their successes.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com